Member Info for cl2201

Anywhere from the middle to the end of July

See RNS of 30th September at 8:09am

@Kendall12

"I am also getting a little tried of this self serving and hypocritical position that the market is always right. Are you saying all stocks are always correctly priced?"

Couldn't agree more. One of my biggest pet peeves.

Seb Jantet of Panmure Liberum now has a price target of 240p. Whilst I don't agree with his thought process, not least because major shareholders (other than perhaps Mediclinic) are very unlikely to accept such an offer, there were a couple of interesting details he outlines below:

‘We still think a bid is likely, with bidders able to navigate the short-term NHS pressure and focus on the longer-term value of building a business capable of servicing private medical insurances’ increasingly broad needs.’

"Jantet is not expecting the UK Takeover Panel to extend the ‘put up and shut up’ covering Bridgepoint and Triton ‘so we should know one way or the other within the next two weeks"

@stewart81 - "..if the takeover fails and the price drops to the 160’s we could be left nursing it for years hoping for the property value to be realised one day"

I would say your outlook is overly, and perhaps unfairly, bearish. From a factual standpoint, we can say that Spire has been over 200p for more than 70% (including Covid) of the time since it listed almost 12 years ago and over 80% in the past 5 years - that's not to say past performance dictates what will happen in the future, but to suggest it could stagnate for years is a touch negative.

"I don’t think the property value and getting it at a slight discount is the attraction for PE here".

I think that's exactly what the attraction is. If they can pay, say, 280p (or 1.1 billion GBP) for Spire, they're getting a significant discount on the property alone if we assume an approximate 1.5 billion GBP current value. They then sell the freeholds to a REIT and have Spire (now their subsidiary) lease them back. The next step is to remodel/improve/expand Spire - see Bridgepoint's 4x return on Oasis Dental Care for reference - and sell it in a few years after improving the debt position. That's the playbook.

That's correct - 5th March.

I would say the above is unrelated to the extension - all parties involved need more time to move things forward. What we don't know is when Bridgepoint and Triton engaged with Spire - we only know when they were "outed" as being interested - so it's difficult to ascertain how far down the road they are with respect to finer details. The fact both are still in the running is of course more than positive - now we just need to see who blinks first.

@Aldebaran - as with anyone here, you are entitled to your opinion. Whilst many of us holders here are surely at least partially bitten by the "confirmation bias" bug, there is factual evidence to suggest a positive outcome - by which I mean an offer - whether that happens by the PUSU deadline or at a later date.

In 2025, of all (64) approaches made to UK-listed companies, 51 of them resulted in firm offers being made, c. 80%. An interesting, yet slightly less statistically robust fact: of the 11 companies who were approached by two or more possible suitors in 2025, all 11 resulted in offers.

I guess we can expect some ups and downs over the coming 10 days or so. Yesterday afternoon it looked as though someone was pushing for a breakout above 205 only for the SP to drop below 200 this morning. I didn't think I'd be able to add at 199.80 during talks for a possible offer - perhaps I'll consider myself fortunate to have been able to do so.

@Kendall12 - thank you for sharing

I wouldn't expect to see anything just yet from the company. My guess is we'll be more likely to hear something via the press if they get wind of a possible bid - that will then force the company to disclose the state of play.

My guess is the "leak" originated from the activist (Harwood Capital et al.) investors. If you look back, there was another Sky News article which seemingly had the exclusive scoop on the shareholders pushing for a sale - this was the article which forced the company to release the "Response to speculation" RNS (18th September). Rationale? Extra exposure in the press certainly wouldn't be a bad thing in terms of getting more eyes on the prize.

I think when he mentioned "we" would maybe have to settle for 300p instead of 325p he was referring to Harwood Capital, but that's certainly open to interpretation. I say 250p in relation to Mediclinic as they agreed to that in 2021 with Ramsay Health Care's offer - though of course we're now 4 years on, so would they still be willing to accept a bid at that level? That's the question we need answering

Yes, but they won't be doing that - at least not according to Nick Mills of Harwood Capital. During yesterday's interview on Vox Markets, Nick mentioned Mediclinic are (he believes) a seller at the right price. What that price is, only Mediclinic will know - but I assume any potential purchaser would be able to get them onboard for 250p - the question is whether the other large holder, Toscafund, are willing to accept such an offer.

Based on previous years, we should see a Trading Update within the next 5 working days (last year it was released on 30th April). Whilst H2 FY25 is expected, per the Half Year results, to be in line with H1 FY25 and thus nothing to write home about, what I'm looking for is how they present current trading and, most importantly, the future outlook.

Beyond the above, it's worth noting that the company is working towards becoming an AWS MSP (Managed Service Provider) by middle of this year - only a month or so away.

Really good to see the SP moving out of the doldrums. A long way to go yet, in my opinion, in terms of reaching fair value - but it's a good start nonetheless.

I picked up my last, large, batch today to take me close enough to 0.5% of the company at just under 17p average. Time will tell if that's a shrewd move or not. Cannacord Genuity have provided the opportunity - when they stop selling (or sell out completely) we'll hopefully revert to a new, higher baseline SP.

Harris07 - It looks like there's a significant buyer at 0.35p - only 500 (ish) pounds available as of now. That's likely why you're not able to get a quote to buy beyond said amount

'Need 52 million shareholding against delisting. Do you think it can be done'

In reality, it's likely to be far less. You're assuming that every shareholder votes, which is rarely the case. If we take the example of the last AGM, there were only (just under) 64 million votes cast. If there's a similar voting turn out for the proposed delisting, only 16 million votes would be needed to ensure the delisting doesn't happen.

I will certainly be voting against delisting.

The buy was mine. Sorry to disappoint, but I'm just a regular Joe.

I also added a further 658,750 just now, for a total of 2.5m (which includes a previous purchase).

A highly speculative play, which I wouldn't recommend to others, the thesis for which is largely summarised in the following points:

1. I have no reason to dispute Littlened's explanation for the postponement of the GM - it's the significant delay following the announcement which intrigues me. Whilst I'm not necessarily of the opinion that the board will withdraw the proposal, the fact we're in week two since the postponement RNS suggests perhaps more is at play than meets the eye.

2. I question whether the vote for cancellation has sufficient legs. I note from the initial proposed cancellation RNS there's no mention of any shareholders who support the proposal - this doesn't mean they're against it per se, but you'd think the board would want to show backing in order to persuade others to follow suit. Anecdotally, this BB likely holds 10%+ and I'd imagine not many of us are going to want to support delisting.

3. Corporate action. A left-field possibility - at a market cap. of less than 1m GBP it's logical to assume there could be potential suitors for the company's assets or the full share capital.

4. Delisting is far from ideal, but I can stomach holding a private company if that's the final outcome. The impact of the proposed delisting has meant I've been able to pick up 1.2% of the company at a relatively cheap entry point, so I can't complain too much.