Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
When you say the 'delay has nearly obliterated the sp' are you referring to the proposed investment by ANS when the local government trigger the resettlement? Since December the SP has actually increased.
I'm not sure why you reference Harry in resettlement matters - it has been mentioned in news statements and on this board (numerous times) that he has no part to play in the current proceedings as far as resettlement is concerned. He can kick and scream all he wants but it is purely and simply down the local government to trigger when they see fit.
We won't receive an RNS saying Lanstead are out (they last notified below 3%) - we will just stop seeing round AT trades all the time as well as a likely uplift in SP as the resistance from persistent selling will have gone.
Definitely a shame that TKGM haven't received the $9m in Birr equivalent yet, but aside from that an extremely positive RNS. The clout of the new board members at TKGM is not to be underestimated.
The part I looked on with particular interest was the commencement of engineering works by the Federal Ministry of Finance. This is big news as it is solidifying their commitment to the project.
I think - and this is purely my opinion - that KEFI could multi-bag this year if full funding goes through.
Just in terms of basic maths, a 50.1% share in TKGM at the original ANS buy-in price is worth 50m USD (39m GBP) to KEFI. Set that against the current MC of 8.5m GBP and that is a 4.5 bagger and takes no notice of any upside.
The full funding going through, meaning the project is definitely going ahead, should see us closer to the valuation above and that is during the construction phase - when production occurs the sky's the limit.
It's the Ethiopian Government (Federal and Regional Government agencies) which needs to deliver at this time, not Harry. We need the all-important sign-off of the remaining regulatory consents - then and only then will the $9m be released.
The regulatory consents are (to quote the RNS of 6th December) '...expected to be provided in the coming weeks'.
Most of the key elements are now in the government's hands:
We need to see them sign off on the $60m past costs incurred by KEFI so we can rightfully take our 54% in TKGM - apparently this is almost all complete with just a few more recent items remaining.
The government is also currently reviewing draft documentation for the $160m infrastructure bond finance.
Once these items are completed it will be dangerously close to all systems go as that will progress the equity part of the financing (at least the $9m) to final sign-off and similarly the bond issue will be there or thereabouts as it would have a) government approval and b) official documentation to say KEFI will retain 50%+ in TKGM (a must for the bond financing to go ahead).
Still under the radar but slowly edging forward. Champagne or Buck's Fizz for Christmas?
Well that's just the point - funding needs to be secured and in our possession before we start to see parity with those SP figures being guesstimated, but that is why some (myself, for example) see this as an incredible investment proposition at the current SP given the proposed timeframes for completion of funding.
I disagree - whilst there are undoubtedly some investors on the sidelines waiting for funds to hit, the biggest roadblock to SP progress has been the large seller (since the placing).
There has been plenty of buying since the recent announcement (not today, granted) so I don't think it's a case of PIs being put off - we just need to see the seller complete their mission, so to speak. This would certainly be aided by a couple of positive news items (funds received and ready to be spent on resettlement/bond listing), which would push volumes much higher.