Member Info for CJ66

I agree, they deal in half truths on things hard to substantiate, and then see what falls out of the can.
As shown he has moved on to the next anyway now.
It was interesting to see that he tried it on some Chinese company, that at first fell and has since recovered to 1/3 higher than before his attack. I think unfortunately we seem more sceptical beasts thinking 'there's no smoke without fire' and seem to then make it come true. (hence NMC?).
However good to see a notification of Mithaq taking a 5% stake (although I don't really know about them)

I think they will recover, but it shows some risks as they get larger - having to rely on going into more markets + other products.
This both spreads the risks, but they can also lose control with new unknown distributors etc.
It appears in Korea that 'other market' distributors were buying PMP products and then selling them on to Korea through the back door. This is what led to an exaggerated slump in Korea's sales, but also an exaggerated rise in rest of the world sales, so a rebalancing has to take place. Short term this means that PMP were 'fooled' into producing too much product, that with fairly fixed overheads means a delayed hit.
However, having only ever increased or kept the same dividend in over 30 years since listing, they will be loath to lose that record and I for one would keep faith in them, although I think short term they will be outpaced by Churchill who have a better growth path at present. On balance keep for the dividend.

Hi 60p,
sorry busy Christmas so slow reply!
I agree that the biggest danger is delisting - particularly as the Market makers are making it virtually impossible to trade with the spread and as you say the listing is costing money with little hope of raising any more with an equity raise.
Certainly I remember reading one of the annual reports and 1 of the Directors was educated at I think a Cambridge University - as mentioned previously I think the plan was to gain the credibility and then when they joined the EU....
How things can change!
It is a shame, because if you see the one loss making part it was the Skimmed milk powder - but just google 'skimmed milk powder price graph' and it's now over 50% higher than last year. This could mean an even better 2nd half, but I'm not sure if you can risk the combination of delisting and silly buy / sell price - it's a rather frustrating dilemma....

More poor news today dressed up as jam tomorrow, and all but saying the dividend will be cut next....learning point is probably to try and focus on how good a company's management are, despite what seems a fantastic opportunities...looks like a long road ahead !

Hi 60p - I think the market makers are also to blame here.
Clearly a 2p - 4p 100% spread is ridiculous, but often when you trade the shares these spreads are much lower in practice.
However here I have found they quote 3.75p even on a low qty to buy, and when I put a limit like 3.3p they ignore it.
Combine this with fairly recent previous sales (and more sells than buys indicating stock would be available) shown as 2p-2.6p - I thought 3.3p against even the 2.6p giving them 27% was fair enough and surely better than nothing - but obviously not!!

Thanks rag, lets hope its same again - although the price has gone up hugely over the last 3 years, it still seems to lag the progress being made.
Also just noted a couple of 500k buys - so perhaps a balance of sells to buys is starting to shift !

They need the money to reinvest in new cases to grow, particularly as unlike putting in ingredients to make a cake 30mins later, take variable and unpredictable time due to the nature of the business.
This is a large part of our problem that the shorters have achieved by cutting off various funding roots due to the low share price - which means growth could stall and subsequently lowers the share price & results further = becoming a self fulfilling decline.
At the extreme, if you want a big dividend they could stop all new investments and just hand back the money - which is what Juridica did a while ago...takes your choice!

hope some of those were Burford, otherwise it looks even worse....?!

As I think has been mentioned before - it really baffles why anybody would be offloading at present as the Palladium and Rhodium prices soar - and Sylvania has a higher % of these than most other producers Platinum bias?
As a commodity the price can always turn, but with relatively fixed costs - the current high commodity price multiplies profit exponentially when on the up like this. Currently its almost literally printing money....

Thanks Knife, and I have to admit I thought it would be shortly before results next year that they might hit £18. Not usually a full year trading statement until 1st week of Jan.
Purely peoples own way of running things - but what I have done with a share like this where the overall longer term trajectory seems heavily weighted to going upwards,
is build a holding your happy to keep for longer term say 2500 shares or whatever,
then I have bought a few 'extra' when I thought it was low - say 500 shares.
Then sold these 500 when it has gained say £1. (as it's ups & downs are exaggerated)
I have done this 4 times with this share in the last 2 years - avoiding the disappointment of having sold and missed out when the price carries on higher, but also been happy to bank a small profit of say £500, and wait to see if another opportunity arises.
Of course if your a millionaire just ignore this and hold them!

As mentioned some time back the Dudson purchase - which they stated had no material impact on there last really good results, may just be twigging too.
They were stated as a close competitor - so that's circa £20m disappeared from the competitor market + Churchill bought various pattern / process rights + some of the machinery, without taking over the whole business.
This means that on a relatively high but fixed cost and overhead basis, they can add a significant amount of extra production that would resultingly be at very high margins.
The final thing to consider is that they have a relatively low number of shares, so on little volume the price swings (and incidentally absurd MM spreads!) exaggerate this.
At present the quality of this share means a deserved premium, with I believe further to go.

I agree - the headlines don't look brilliant - mainly due to the disposal pubs being well below stated value + the swaps loss & pension reversal.
The all important actual cash flow however remains strong.
Below this the concentration on debt reduction, which many have stated is required to remain viable, has been fully grasped, with good initiatives to draw out the poorer pubs, and replace new builds with more spending on the current estate.
They seem to have some good initiatives like a constant 5 year plan to keep all pubs consistent and up to scratch etc, + new wins in brewing.
It's not going to be a dynamic investment for a few years, but I believe they are showing good category management, and depending upon the price you bought in at, the dividend yield compensates against it sitting in a bank account.

Playing devils advocate, I don't think the stuff about MW or shorters etc will do any good in being pursued. It becomes like a Trump you said...I said, and lead to poor publicity and no winners all round.
It's like Corbyn is going to bring all the rich people to account etc.
They will do much better to produce results from cases. Petersen is the crown jewel, but they have had plenty of others and stuffed back this and more £ into further cases.
The issue is it is unlike a widget company where it costs 10p to make and then sell it for 15p - here the money in vs outcome £ out is unpredictable in time and value. Like any company to grow they need to put the money in - but must now start to show it can come out - and that seems to be where people / institutions have wavered from probably over optimistic to perhaps too sceptical. That's the nature of this share.
I do though agree with whatabout that the new year needs action on new independent Directors & NY listing progress to reinforce a more optimistic progression on top of positive results.

2nd acquisition means this is back on 'beefing up' - I have held this share for over 15 years and its slow increase in share price and dividend has been fantastic.
Therefore, and only my opinion, I view the general decline over the last 18 months as an opportunity to bag a high yielding share.
As IC pointed out, if the price drops too low it will likely be bought itself by another player.
Back when I first bought it people were saying it was going to run out of business / cash - it was around £1.10 and paying about a 10p dividend (near 10% yield) - for the patient, it's always come up with the onions (or tulips perhaps in this case!)

....couple of 100k buys, so looks a quick rebound...with hindsight it was time to buy a few more,
but rats, crystal ball is everything, however the talk is confident so hopefully a gradual rise longer term (with no doubt a couple of slip downs if any more volumes are unloaded)!

Time will tell, but I think it is likely to be Invesco - who along with Woodford (link) having been offloading big positions in other small shares.
350,000 in 4 late trades points to it likely being them.
The only issue is how much do they want to unload, because holding 28% of 125m shares is about 35m shares!
Looks like it might be wait and see for a short while in case they offload even more, as it fell to circa £3.20 last time.
It seems a shame as the company is gradually getting going, but the overhang like you say will tend to keep it stuck in a grey cloud.

Pretty savage mark down - on no real volume or any RNS
Last trading update was reasonable progress and they have an obligation to provide major news as appropriate.
Is it Invesco reducing their 28% holding, or some other market chatter?
Last years interim results were 27th November, so not even sure something is immanent just yet.
This is probably either a good buying or selling opportunity, but I have no idea which!

Halfpenny - many a true word spoken in jest - as the price is now up 10p in a day !

The FT says JP Morgan & Citi have turned negative on Gold...oh the fickleness!
There is still plenty in the political world to go wrong quickly, so whilst one doesn't wish it to happen, I'm happy to keep my current shares in here as a hedge.
+ the longer term exploration element points upwards.

The good news is that if the CPO price continues to rise then KLK may have missed a good opportunity to buy very cheaply, and MPE 's Directors have already done a good job in talking the price up - if profits are on the rise too, then this will help massively.
It is after all a fairly fixed price operation, therefore prices up or down have a big effect on profits.