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I have sold my entire holding this morning at 184p. It is still the only share I am interested in investing in but I am very unsure what the share price is going to do here short term. I’m very happy at 184p and once I feel some certainty about the share price I’ll buy back in. I just don’t want to get caught out again on a retrace. But I will be back that is for sure.
Hmm, yes that’s a shame but I notice the markets went down sharply in the last hour. It is recovering now a bit, back to 177.5p but I was enjoying being mid 180s. We’ll see how next week starts.
Good post yarde2k. I’m trying to second guess where the share price goes from here too. It has been a fantastic rise after that horrific retrace we experienced. There is no doubt about it that WMH are in excellent shape and there is so much positive value to be realised long term. But at the same time I fully expect a retrace at some point for MMs to make money from people selling at lower prices than they bought.
The Dunn Brothers buying in yesterday makes it even more interesting. They know this market and WMH’s situation better than anyone. Why would they buy in at this price if they think WMH is over priced at this moment in time? Why have they bought now rather then when we were at £1.20 a month ago? I also don’t think the increase has lasted long enough or had enough buys compared to sells. I also think anything in the 170p’s is too cheap. So I’m drawn to the conclusion that there is more short term value ahead but not sure how much more this will rise before a retrace starts.
That is fantastic news. If they are investing at these prices they clearly still see this as good value. I was sure they’d buy in when we were down below 120p last month. Well that explains yesterday’s rocket in share price.
There is without doubt long term great value to be had here, no doubts about that. I was really kicking myself for holding the share on the retrace from 163p to 104p, I was sure there would be a retrace and posted such comments at the time, it was way too high a price back then before half year results were known and the market makers needed to make money back from all the people who had bought in cheaply.
It’s just you know short term if a share price is too high or too low and it’s that which I want to take advantage of.
I still believe the share price will still keep rising short term, there has to be a lot more days with buys exceeding sells for a retrace to begin. But there will be a retrace at some point. It’s very hard to know where the MMs value WMH right now. WMH has changed as a company, it has shifted focus from retail to online and overseas. It was 100% the right strategy.
Morbox, what a month it’s been holding this share. This is like the dream scenario with shares seeing the share price rise and rise and making thousands of pounds doing nothing. Maybe a once in a lifetime opportunity was this, I feel very fortunate to have spotted the opportunity but frustrated that I used most of my savings a year ago to buy a new car.
When I first invested here back in April I had no idea just how brilliantly WMH was being run and the fantastic position WMH have in America. It is looking very exciting for the future for WMH and therefore I want to keep a set amount of shares here, however I also feel ready to sell out soon and concentrate on trading WMH shares - sell on highs and buy on lows. As you have said it’s a risky business but if you can get it right it can be very profitable.
I feel like since the half year reports came out it’s been fairly easy to predict the share price but soon it will become harder as we are entering the unknown.
But well done to everyone who has made good money here, it’s a great achievement.
I’d be up for putting a bet on one of your tips too OWLS. No pressure on it winning/losing.
This is going to take off again, the share price will rocket towards 190p in the coming days. Today was another strong day. Twice as many sells than buys and the markets down heavily today but WMH share price holds up.
When will WHM overtake the 888 share price? Got to feel for zx 300 blue who sold out on WMH at 118p and bought in at 888 at 195p.
Well done Gambloriv, you’ve done outstanding there. I am nicely up on WMH but I feel it has been a missed opportunity for myself to really set myself up, but it’s easy in hindsight.
Enjoy your new home.
Last week was a great week moving up from 163p to 173p. The Market Makers used their usual tactics of dropping the share price twice (Monday and Friday) by around 5-6p to collect any sell orders and sells from weak holders before shooting the share price back up.
What is clear to see is that this share has fantastic positive momentum.
The share price can only keep rising. Two reasons - WMH is in fantastic shape, the American side of the business is incredible and the streamlining of the company in the last year to 18 months has been superb.
The second reason the share price can only rise is because of the fact there have been significantly more sells than buys on this rise up to 173p. The market makers are in this to make money too and they want people to buy in at these higher prices not sell for huge profits. Dropping the share price makes no sense for the MMs, it will only allow people to buy in cheaper who sold out cheaper. There is no money to be made by the MMs dropping the share price as there have been more sells than buys on this rise up. Also dropping the share price will only create less confidence in buying the share. MMS want people to buy now, and there is plenty of short term value still to be had. There will be a retrace at some point but most likely after we’ve reached £2 a share.
Prediction for this week - it’s only a 4 day week but 182-186p is my guess.
Yes I like it. Will be interesting to read what he is referring to later in the year. This is not a share I would want to be out of, I really believe it’s going to take off, the company is in such brilliant shapes, these prices do not do WMH justice at all.
What are you thinking Morbox? A potential takeover bid for WMH?
I am sure there will be some who are unsure what to do right now, the share price has fallen 5 to 6 pence since yesterday morning and worried it may be about to fall again.
I don’t want to influence anyone as it’s too important a matter to rely on others advice. If you feel it’s going to go down from here it’s best to sell and try to buy back in once it starts to rise again.
I personally am not thinking about selling, I don’t believe it’s going to fall far, I think there is still plenty of short term value here given how great a shape WMH are in. You have to remember it is the market makers who determine the share price and it’s not only about how they value the share but a game of poker - if they plan to rise the share price they will happily drop the share price first to shake out weak holders and sell orders before rising the share price again.
Interesting week to follow the share price.
Thanks Ian, I think we’ve got some good honest posters here who are fair on their comments about WMH and not rampers and blind to the risks. I’ve made mistakes with shares in the past and insisted I would only invest in shares that I know the market sector and company. I do feel I understand this market well as I have always been very keen in sports betting.
I think we’ve all done well our it WMH, not many people make profits in shares so we’ve been fortunate to find such a great share.
I’m expecting another good week ahead with WMH, I am predicting we will finish this coming week at 174p.
It is nice to be at these levels but I wish I could have afforded to buy more than what I hold. Good to see you now healthy in profit.
I spent quite a bit of time looking at the America side of the business this morning and it’s convinced me even more that we are going to see this rise significantly from here.
In William Hill plc’s info about the American part of the business it states this: By December 2019, 14 states had legalised and regulated sports betting. We are encouraged by the momentum in the number of states regulating sports betting. We are increasingly confident of the potential size of the market and see it falling comfortably within a US$5bn to US$19bn range within the first five years post PASPA. Nonetheless, the market is unlikely to mature for at least a decade.
Considering WMH have a 24% market share of a market estimated between $5-19bn, the American side of the business alone is likely going to be worth more in 3 years time than what the whole value of the company is worth now. Some forecasters even value WMH’s American business at $1.7bn as of now. Therefore the company remains vastly undervalued at these levels. The company has to be worth £3bn which is close to £3 a share. Will be exciting and interesting watching the share price over the weeks and months ahead.
My personal thoughts on this is that the share price should not fall like it did last time we were at 163p. The last time we were at that price was early June and the price went up that high because of the large volumes being bought on the huge rise from 29p, the market makers took the share price up to those levels so that they could make money from people who bought in high who would sell at lower levels. In early June sport was only just returning in Europe, we did not know how things would be, how the ‘pandemic’ would be, before WMH gave any updates or half year figures.
The share price is now being corrected to fair levels because of what it is worth, not because buys exceed sells each day.
There is still plenty of short term value here and huge amount of long term value to be realised. Flutter for example are trading at record highs. 888 are trading above pre Covid levels.
WMH are in the best shape they’ve been for a long time. The focus is purely on growth online and overseas, whilst cutting costs. The fact WMH would have made profits on operations during the first 6 months of the year which included 10 weeks of practically no sport had we kept the furlough money is incredible. Can you imagine what we will do in the next 6 months, especially with US sports now back and the increased portfolio there.
Then add in the potential takeover possibility. Don’t be influenced by the share price and past share price. WMH are super strong now with a 29% market share at present in the US sports betting market which is incredible.
Short term target has to be £2 a share. Long term targets above £3 a share. The easiest hold ever is WMH.
That link didn’t work. I have pasted it below:
William Hill Is a Giant in U.S. Sports Betting—yet Its Stock Is Cheap, Analyst Says
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By Andrew Bary
Aug. 18, 2020 11:05 am ET
William Hill's sports book windows at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for William Hill US
Shares of William Hill look very inexpensive because investors are giving the company no credit for its attractive U.S. sports betting franchise, according to an analyst’s note Tuesday.
William Hill, a British betting and gambling company, has U.S.-listed shares (ticker: WIMHY), which were up 9%, or 65 cents, to $7.80 in early trading Tuesday. The company’s market value is around $1.9 billion.
“William Hill boasts the leading U.S. sports betting market share, yet we see zero value priced in,” Jefferies analyst James Wheatcroft wrote in a client note titled “No. 1 in America Yet Zero Value Priced In.” He lifted his target on the William Hill’s U.K.-listed shares to 330 pence from 305, against a current price of about 145 pence.
U.S. online sports gambling is the industry’s hottest trend. The share price of DraftKings (DKNG), the largest pure play company, has more than doubled since April, when it went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company.
DraftKings shares were up $1.08, or 3.1%, to $35.76 Tuesday, giving it a market value of more than $12 billion. DraftKings and FanDuel, which is controlled by U.K. gambling company Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), are the leaders in the New Jersey online sports gambling market, the most important in the country.
William Hill’s U.S. unit is the leader in Nevada, where it has a 29% market share. One of the company’s most important relationships is with Caesars Entertainment (CZR), which was formed recently with the merger of Caesars and Eldorado
William Hill U.S. is the sports betting operator at Caesars, which has more than 50 properties in 16 states. Caesars holds a 20% interest in William Hill US, which it received when Eldorado completed a deal with William Hill in 2019.
One possibility is an initial public offering of William Hill’s U.S. unit, which now operates in 12 states with what the company has described as a “growing online presence.”
“Following the completion of Eldorado’s acquisition of Caesars, WMH enjoys enhanced market access, now to 25 states with the largest licensed footprint in the USA,” Wheatcroft wrote.
William Hill also reached a partnership agreement earlier this year with CBS Sports to be the official sports book and wagering data provider for CBS Sports. Wheatcroft wrote that the CBS deal will lift the company’s brand recognition.
Wheatcroft wrote that he assumes that William Hill’s U.S. unit will garner a 10% market share and he values the U.S. business alone at 170 pence.
Apologies if this has already been posted. It says you need to subscribe to read the article but you can still read it in faint type without.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/iran-says-beirut-aid-should-not-be-tied-to-political-change-01597405505
For the last 6 weeks I think you can count the number of days where buys exceeded sells on one hand. The market makers created such uncertainty and low confidence in this share due to the prolonged decline of the share price from 163p to 104p over 6 weeks.
The market makers needed to do that to recover losses from the huge profits people made on the rise up from 29p to 163p. They were collecting sell orders and weak holders people panic selling who bought in on the rise to 163p - making people think they had made a huge mistake. 300zxblue is a perfect example of this.
The market makers accumulated shares at those crazy low levels and have returned the share price to the lower range of where the share price should now be. But sells continue to exceed buys.
I think we can predict what happens to the share price here now based on what the market makers want. Do they want more sells than buys at this price? No. They wanted people selling at sub 120p. They want more buys than sells now, they accumulated large volumes of shares in the past 2 months and now want people to buy at these levels. But how can they make people buy at these levels when confidence was so low and people are unsure whether they’ll fall again? The answer is simple. To create a calm and stable share price for a prolonged period of time. If the share price settles and rises slowly but surely people will start to feel confident to buy and people less inclined to sell.
So I think we can expect the share price to be solid from here, slowly rising over the weeks ahead.