Member Info for cindercone

Pdub "Your answer therefore talks about the start of the process and I cannot agree at all with your timescale or V price requirement."

I meant to say I cannot see BMN reaching 8,000mtv output for five years - not that BMN wouldn't start the process for five years. You're very bullish, obviously. I'm more cynical because all we ever get from FM is missed targets and the ramp up to 5,400 has been an unmitigated failure to date. Hence, past performance tells me to be realistic and not have unrealistic expectations.

Only thing more boring than 'trolls' is reading people complain about 'trolls'. No one's going anywhere because you say so. Either ignore, filter or find another forum to read.

"Dear Lawrence... I will not return any of your further comments unless they show signs of intelligence and civility."

Have 40 years to spare do you?

Pdub, I think you need to be a little more realistic. FM said they won't begin the ramp up until BMN hits a steady run rate of 5400mtv. 2023 guidance is only 4200-4500mtv, so what with all the load shedding etc. I really can't see BMN hitting 5400mtv until 2025.

When they are ready, BMN will need to find another $45m cash to increase to 8000mtv, all whilst servicing huge existing debt.

The refurbishing of the three kilns at Vanchem will be staged and those refurbishments will no-doubt take 6-12 months as each stage progresses - assuming there are no setbacks delays, which there always are.

Hence why I really can't see 8000mtv coming to fruition unless cash generation is extremely strong, i.e. much higher V prices than now and sustained at those higher prices. If VRFB adoption begins to have the effect that analysts predict, then maybe that's possible, but that's more of a wild guess at this point I trust you'll agree?

HarChris "The plan will be to kick on with the 4 stage expansion to 8000mtV as soon as the 5000mtV steady state run rate is achieved"

Not a cat in hell's chance of this happening for at least 5 years, unless V prices hit $60 and stay there, permanently.

@JP8891 - all that you say may be true, but what's also true is that the original deal with Orion has been a total disaster for shareholders. V prices have been fairly healthy last 24 months - if it wasn't for the self-inflicted mess he's lumbered on the company the SP would likely be somewhere between 10-20p now.

The damage is done and respect for him has been trounced, so now he has to build that trust back up.

Good to see the loan is sorted out. I maintain that this was a loan that FM could never pay back without renegotiation, and that lengthy process has destroyed sentiment in the SP for a considerable length of time. The whole debacle has been very poor management on his part.

However, it's sorted now and BMN is derisked as long as V prices stop plummeting. Now we need to see evidence of FM's strategical theory regarding VRFBs putting a sustainable squeeze on V prices.

It's more like the relationship between football supporters and VAR. The supporters (BMN fanatics) are deluded, biased and lack objectivity. VAR (BMN realists) are focused on the reality of the situation, only to constantly be told they're corrupt and have an agenda.

@tekanalyst "I understand that you have to talk nonsense to try and get a better buy in price, but you do need to try and retain a shred of credibility at the end of the day."

How can you assign yourself credibility when you have no idea of how much stock I hold or trading history? FYI, I'm underwater, but the bulk of shares I bought were years ago at 10p, so I'm not suffering nearly as much as others.

However, I certainly won't be buying anymore shares - even if they drop to 1p. I no longer trust Fortune Mojapelo and don't believe he is the right man to lead the company. He is overpaid, unaccountable and completely lacking in transparency.

Heaven forbid the CEO should be held responsible for taking on more debt than the company can handle, skirting around the issue for months on end, leaving the spin-off of a vital arm of the company hanging in the air for almost a year and overseeing a complete collapse in the share price, all whilst earning $500k a year, over a 10-year period in which the only time the SP did well was due to circumstances completely beyond his control, completely irrelevant to his projections.

Apparently that pattern of poor judgment and lack of transparency is my fault and questioning that makes investors POS trolls.

Credit where it's due, at least HarChris can debate.

Indeed HarChris, that's what we're hanging our hats on - projections.

"Hmm ‘reckless gamble’ or necessary and successful investment for the future of the company?"

It's not been a necessary or successful investment, yet. Only the future will tell us that.

Let's be real, were it not for sustained high prices due to the completely unforeseen Ukraine war, BMN would be in a terrible mess right now and that loan would have been an absurd miscalculation.

I am knowledgeable, just lousy at reading charts. You are correct HarChris, although we have to factor in that the leap in price was due to sanctions put on Russian supply due to the Ukraine war, which have obviously been circumnavigated.

I'd have more faith if VFRB uptake was the cause of the V spike, but no evidence of that. Mojapelo's Orion loan still looks like a reckless gamble to me.

Vanadium prices soared in Feb 22 at $63.50 in the US and yet the SP never got about 10p.

Will Orion ever get their conversion price? They've got FM by the balls now and shareholders will suffer for it, again.

@Pigpen70 - because I do own stock?

Are you for real? https://www.asianmetal.com/FerrovanadiumPrice/Ferrovanadium.html

The stock is sinking because the vanadium price is tanking. Mojapelo's inability to provide any sort of clarity on debt, BELCO or future ambitions are amateurish. The ship is rudderless.

If things have not significantly improved by the next AGM, there needs to be a vote of no confidence. His overblown salary is simply not commensurate with performance.

Someone is clearly desperate to bury the truth. Shame, as HarChris offered a fairly decent response.

Since this thread mysteriously disappeared for no reason, thought I'd reiterate below:

Like I said HarChris, the TREND shows BMN will very soon be loss making. The current speed of decline in V prices will easily outstrip exchange rate movements. When BMN traded at 21p I don't remember it having a $65m debt hanging over its neck with no explanation as to how it will be paid back.

I have no doubt it will be paid back, but at what cost to shareholders? And why are V prices tumbling in China when adoption of VRFBs is ever-accelerating? This casts further doubts on Mojapelo's short-term forecasts for strengthening commodity prices.