Member Info for cindercone

Pdub, stop accusing people of lying all the time it's childish. The main point is that you're constantly inferring that 2023/24 will be positive for BMN but only ever give one side of the story.

Is an improvement in load shedding good for the people of SA? Not necessarily. As the link you evidently didn't bother to read explains, electricity prices are rising exorbitantly due to Eskom having to cover the cost of increasing theft and wasteful expenditure. The company is R400bn in debt yet astonishingly hands out 7% pay rises to stop corruption - the crooks are rewarded while South Africans pay through the nose via electricity price increases.

If you want to keep being deceitful, fine, but you can expect others to keep giving a more balanced viewpoint.

@Pdub

"You are the one expressing opinions unsubstantiated and fitting one side. I just made people aware of an analysis of why load shedding had reduced. I like to stick to facts where possible. Load shedding has improved. Fact. Reasons why are listed. Fact. You should be happy about that as a shareholder. I certainly am."

I also presented FACTS. The pay rises to workers, FACT. Electricity price tariffs to increase 30% over next two years, FACT (https://dailyinvestor.com/south-africa/12176/electricity-prices-to-increase-further-expert/).

I'm not sure exactly why you are celebrating a 10% improvement in load shedding at Vanchem, which you say is mostly protected from load shedding anyway, when BMN's energy bill will rise 30% over next two years.

Why don't you mention that for balance? Because any profits will certainly be hit.

Once again, Pdub only presents the side of the story that he wants to tell.

My response has nothing to do with emotion. It's simply that your article fails to mention how pay rises for non-managerial employees (the people that get brown envelopes for enabling the sabotage of equipment) have been bought off with unprecedented pay rises.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/eskom-workers-get-7-pay-rise/

Who will pay for that? Customers, who will already see 30%+ increases in the electricity tariffs over next 2 years. Not good news for ordinary Africans.

Load shedding has improved because Eskom management has caved in to theft, corruption and sabotage by giving outrageous pay rises and benefits to employees. The corruption continues and the people of South Africa will foot the bill.

If Orion were so confident in BMN's future why did they want the conversion price reduced from 17p to a paltry 6p?

Lenders aren't ones to gamble with debt - they've seen the SP crash and burn once already, so the overwhelming likelihood is that they will sell up at the first opportunity.

With V prices unlikely to rise much this year due to China's heavily depressed housing sector and Orion bailing out as soon as possible, it's going to be at least 18 months before we can see a clear path ahead imo.

Where's the game-changing news going to come from? Mini-grid? Insignificant. BELCO? Can't see that transforming revenues. Who will own it? What's the profit margin? How small will initial manufacture be? All unanswered questions - Mojapelo doesn't give optimistic answers, or any answers.

Just the small problem of 75 million shares being offloaded at 6p. Of course, they will sell, like every other lender that Mojapelo couldn't convince to keep onboard sold.

So what if Avacta fundraises at some point in the next year - it's clearly an innovative biotech with a massive future ahead of it. You'd have to be some sort of moron to be influenced by parasites whose trading strategy is to literally guess which AIM companies might be looking to raise funds at any given point before infesting the internet with lies and disinformation. These cesspool traders are so thick they can't even read a P&L statement - that's why they're reduced to doing what they do.

Pdub, despite out disagreements, which will likely never be resolved, I'm glad to hear you are doing well.

Show some self respect Pdub and stop embarrassing yourself. The numbers were taken from ARC's broker note, but the context and opinions are all yours. Your arrogance and inability to accept you were wrong is precisely why you cannot be trusted.

"Either produce a quote where I state my opinion that the exchange rate will affect the share price or apologise."

9 Jun 2023 15:15

"ARC valuation forecast risked NAV of 12p for 2023 based upon an average V price of $40 kgV and Dollar Rand of 17 ( leading to AISC of $35 kgV). This was upgraded to 14p following their positive response to the refinancing of the Orion debt. Dollar Rand has averaged much higher than they assumed. At 18 their new risked NAV would be around 15.5p. Share price now 3.55p. To get to 15.5p would require the sp to rise by 337% over the next 12 months. Is that possible over the next year? If BMN deliver on the news expected in that period why not."

There you go. Clear statement mentioning $/rand being "higher than assumed" because you believe it will have a positive outcome on the SP.

Increased profitability is only likely to apply upward pressure on the SP if it's significant, yet you have failed to demonstrated that the exchange rate will lead to a significant increase in profits.

Without providing any sort of evidence as to what extent that exchange rate would increase profits in MONETARY terms, how can shareholders judge its significance. Your assertion therefore is deceptive.

END OF STORY.

Remember BBN? Once thought of as a highly credible poster – indeed many investors bought shares on the back of his ‘research’.

Nov 2020: Re: Bess project

“Given the similar size of the 3 project phases, it is highly unlikely that the tender documents will change very much. BMN's CEO is not only demonstrating that BMN will/have taken part but is giving me at least, a massive hint, that there is an expectation of a contract win, in some shape or form.”

Nov 2020:

“Worst case scenario, Vanchem phase 2 could be with us by mid 2023. So 2.5 years to wait for a ramp up to 6,300mtV”

Feb 2021:

“For me its clear, Next 2 years, BMN is heading to min. 6,000 mtV and all the trimmings that come with it.”

June 2021:

“Hold or walk, stay or go. Each must decide for themselves. I'm going nowhere. When it will happen I can't say exactly, hence the jam element. But I am certain that it is coming and am prepared to wait.”

Stopped posting Jul 07, 2021.

The ultimate pump and dumper. Sold everyone the story, used his leverage to encourage buying and then sold the lot. Didn’t tell anyone either, just disappeared.

I hope BMN does well – I’m an investor. But BBN is a warning sign for investors who hang off every word of those looking to inflate the SP and deceive people for their own financial benefit. That's all I'm saying.

"Thuggish and bullying?" - bit of an over-exaggeration Pdub, but then you're good at that. If you over-exaggerated a bit less your forecasts would have more legitimacy.

Somebody can't answer the question.

"As for electrolyte, no contracts have been agreed yet so you can't assume higher margins as no one knows what they will be."

Or even how much of BE will be owned by BMN post carve out. That's what makes these comments so ludicrously deceptive.

No SIPPmeister, I'm asking to what extent it impacts the bottom line in order to justify claims it will have legitimate effect on the SP. Come on, an eight-year-old-child could grasp this.

I'm not debating whether it's positive you moron, I'm debating whether the impact of the exchange rate on BMN's bottom line is worthy of claiming it will legitimately favour the SP - or whether that's deceptive.

For the last time Pdub, what's the effect of the $ZAR exchange rate on BMN's bottom line in monetary terms and how will that offset the negatives impacting profitability?

If you can't answer the question, just admit it and we can accept that using the $ZAR exchange rate as a means to inflate the value of the share price was deceptive on your part.

But you don't give numbers, just a load of waffle about ARC's pointless valuation. I say again, give the numbers in MONETARY TERMS. Of course, you won't because you have no idea.

And as Trevor brooking said, you don't offset that positive with negatives like rising electricity price, increased load shedding and inflation. In other words, the whole basis of your analysis is nonsensical garbage.

I don't have to give numbers because I'm not trying to delude people into believe the $ZAR exchange rate will have a positive effect on the SP. If you had a conscience you'd stop posting unsupported drivel in a lame attempt to deceive people into buying stock.

@JP8891 - that's because you're misinterpreting the point of my post.

Just like I'm happy to see the SP rise, I'm also moderately pleased to see a healthy $ZAR exchange rate. However, the point of my post is nothing to do with the rate itself, but the fact that people who criticise others for being deceptive are themselves deceptive.