RE: Moment of Truth7 Nov 2023 14:41
China is still the driver for v prices, which is why they have continued to plummet globally for around 9 months. us prices are only 12% higher than china, which is now at a near 4-year low. it would be nice to know the exact profit margin for higher grade sales to the us.
anyway, there remains numerous positives now. first, coltman who has done more in a few months than the dithering fraudster he replaced. he seems to be getting on top of things and costs are coming down.
other positives include:
- premium sales of electrolyte sales at some point in h1'24
- coltman effectively trading 50% ownership of vanchem for 100% vametco as vanchem is the bigger cost drag and vametco's solar plant will reduce costs by a further 10%
- bmn's alliance with spr and highveld steel, which could potentially allow for **** to be supplied to vanchem for processing at "much lower and more efficient costs"
- vrfb uptake is guaranteed to create significant v demand. i suspect it's too early to have a major impact right now, unless prices in china would actually be nearer $20 without demand for v from vrfbs
thanks to coltman the potential upsides are beginning to overtake the threat of extinction. although this remains a sock draw investment, bmn just needs to stay in the game.
it's not totally unrealistic to hope for a convergence of factors that will lead to massive price spikes based on a chinese property market recovery, increases in global defence spending, particularly in the us as they're giving all their weaponry to ukraine and israel, and huge demand from vrfb uptake.
that could be anywhere between 3-5 years away and, of course, nothing typically goes to plan, but having an understanding of these potential factors is what gives the edge to anyone investing at these miserably low prices.