Member Info for CiaranC

LuckyLaurie. "Let's focus on the positives". LOL! I have never known a company where milestones and positive announcements (DFS, EIA submission) result in a share price drop. If this is what derisking looks like then I will expect more hurdles and bumps ahead. Hopefully no further nasty surprises as the various parties (directors, CEZ, etc) jockey for advantage in the bun fight, while the poor investors (and some of us are indeed poorer) sit on the sidelines with fingers crossed.

"Too higher price will encourage sodium and DLE".

Depends on your investing timeline.

Obviously we are on the uptick of the lithium cycle. The recent lithium slump and low prices caused lithium projects to be shelved and the result could be a higher peak of the lithium cycle this time.

The last lithium peak was ended by low quality lithium sources being rapidly ramped up in China and Africa. Joe Lowry feels that the lithium market now is six times what it was in 2020 and unlike last time a shortfall cannot be fixed just by bringing a few marginal projects online.

That is not to say that there will not be a peak followed by a trough again. And certainly high prices will result in market forces to counter them. Likely sodium batteries will be ramped up but scaling up sodium battery plants does not happen overnight. Similarly DLE, as far as I am aware there is no commercial DLE at the moment. It think it will happen but whether it is a year or two or five or more remains to be seen.

The point is that for investors that are looking at selling over the next year or anticipating a near term buyout then higher lithium prices are good for the share price. For those anticipating holding for several years then the forecast is more tricky. DYOR.

Or even a buyout of EMH would also be good, at the right price.

Interesting! In the USA GM have partnered with LAC with an investment of $625 million and an agreement to take the whole of the Thacker Pass Phase 1 lithium production. As you say the "Ultium CAM"project has started in Canada and is now being extended to Europe.

However (according to AI), in Europe GM no longer has any major vehicle production, having sold off their factories to what is now Stellantis.

Their apparent model is to import EVs into Europe for the high end of the market. So to me it does not seem that GM would need very much lithium for their European EV market. Presumably then, the Ultium CAM project, which is a bet on the NCMA battery tech, is to be able to sell the Ultium system to other car manufacturers in Europe, and possibly export, in which case they may be in the market for a source of European lithium. I would be happy if they put in an offtake bid.

It is encouraging if Keith's interests are aligned with the shareholders, as opposed to some AIM buyouts where proceeding are "greased" with the offer of a cushy seat on the new board.

@ LukasK - Indeed, I agree. The EU seem have some grand schemes but then they "pootle" along, taking ages to get everyone on board. Then, inevitably, events overtake them. They dithered on Ukraine, while the situation got worse, they dithered on Greenland, they are dithering on critical minerals. If something blows up in China then the EU are up the creek, while they have yet another meeting about critical stockpiles. Hopefully the pieces are now in place and action will happen. By the way thanks for your reply to my question yesterday.

@Bannor - Thanks for your view on this, sounds pragmatic and sensible.

For those who have knowledge of such things. I wonder how the expected buyout of EMH would affect the FID release. Would any new partners want to be in place before the FID is released, so that they have input to it? Or is it more important to just get the FID over the line to enable funding pathways to open?

Presumably Keith would be keen to get offtake agreements signed to boost the price. But is it possible that CEZ could hold up offtake agreements so that they can buy EMH for a song?

What! Nobody from the largest lithium project in Europe?

IMHO

I take the earlier Usti regional vote as giving the local go ahead so I think it unlikely they would want to kill the project, rather that they want it to go ahead. This may well be a politician taking an extreme position so they can negotiate, give ground, and in return wring out concessions and boost their political standing. This is what we would all want our politicians to do, tough negotiation and try to get the best result for the local community. How much leverage he actually has I have no idea.

Hunter16

I agree that banks will not lend till after the FID and signing a legally binding offtake before EIA and FID are resolved is unlikely. But I believe an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) can be a way to announce an offtake prior to the EIA and FID. This allows EMH to announce progress to shareholders and provides support for funding requests while allowing an offtake partner to get a place ahead of competing offtake challengers.

Yes, different product, and PLS is in a different position from EMH, but the structure of the agreement is indicative of what could be possible. I was particularly interested in the announcement of the US$100m pre-payment.

It may be of interest that PLS today have an ASX announcement an offtake agreement.

This may be an indicator of the sort of thing that EMH might be able to do.

These are the main points;

• Two-year binding offtake agreement for the supply of 150 thousand tonnes (kt) per annum of

spodumene concentrate (with an option for PLS to supply additional volumes per annum).

• An option for PLS to extend the agreement for an additional 12 months, beyond the initial two-year

term, to supply 150kt.

• Floor price of US$1,000/t (SC6 basis) without any upside price limitation providing downside protection

with full upside leverage.

• US$100M unsecured interest-free prepayment to be repaid through an offset against spodumene

concentrate sold under the offtake agreement.

• Pricing methodology aligned to the prevailing market price of spodumene concentrate.

Happy; you mentioned offtakes and FID. Are there any further licenses or permits that we are waiting for? Presumably at least one permit is contingent on the EIA approval, which I agree should be straightforward.

The industry view seems to be that sodium will be scaled up, but will take some years. Sodium has some advantages and will take an increasing share of the battery market, perhaps especially for BESS. However, as the whole battery market will continue to expand then it seems very likely that the lithium share of the market will continue to grow also. So the case for lithium remains intact, and that is before solid state lithium batteries arrive in the next couple of years. I continue to hold.

EIA approval and offtakes, then buyout offer please.

There is certainly a company called Verge that sell boutique end motorcycles. The CEO is Tuomo Lehtimäki the brother of Marko.

This is a legit company. But brand ambassador Mika Häkkinen is not particularly impressive. Sports stars can be signed up for all kinds of things if they are offered money or shares plus he is Finnish so would be inclined to lend his support to a Finnish company.

Getting Risto Siilasmaa on the board does not impress me. I worked for a company that won prizes as a promising startup and got some high profile names onto the board. The company went bust within 24 months.

Donut Lab is a real company and make in-wheel motors for their parent company Verge Motorcycles.

Nordic Nano is a real company and Lehtimäki is also on the board of this company.

In this article Lehtimäki states that the batteries are not sourced from Nordic Nano.

https://www.theverge.com/transportation/858514/is-this-the-worlds-first-solid-state-battery

So far so real. Then we come to the claims about being the first to achieve super intelligent AI with his company Asilab and the claims about first to achieve a solid state battery, with Donut Labs, that is light years ahead of anyone else but cheaper and does not use lithium.

First this is incredibly improbable given the resources and time and research that needs to be invested in battery development.

Second they have none of the usual evidence such as patents etc for such a battery to back up their crazy hype.

Third, such a battery breakthrough would be worth hundreds of billions yet they want to launch it via a small company in Finland.

All seems strange and fishy, and I would not invest, even if I could.

Having seen various reports and analyses the possibilities seem to be;

1. It is some kind of scam. Weird but such things do happen.

2. It is a genuine battery product but the properties have been greatly exaggerated either deliberately or mistakenly.

3. It is not actually a battery but some kind of super capacitor which will not live up to the hype.

4. It is a black swan breakthrough that will change the world and be worth hundreds of billions.

In my view option 4 is by far the least likely for reasons already stated. At this point we can watch and wait but this board is supposed to be for discussions on EMH so I will leave it there.

The CEO Marko Lehtimaki also has a company that has invented the worlds first super-intelligent AI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilgJKjiDLV8

Super intelligent AI and a solid state battery that is light years ahead of everything else.

What a guy.

And yet no research papers, no patents, no independent testing, or even an actual battery at CES (only a "mockup" was shown).

I have my doubts that any of us will be on board by production in 2030 or whenever. However in the near term I look at the Vulcan share price to show what can be achieved. In my view Cinovec is a more realistic proposition for lithium supply for Europe than Vulcan. We just need a dynamic management to deliver some good news and hype the project as widely as needed.