Dirt cheap16 Jun 2023 11:43
***********advfn
who is still trading but more quietly highlighted #fab to me at the lows. i think a lot of people are missing a trick with this one so i am going to share some of the discussion.
i say it’s undervalued to you but until you look at the numbers it’s not always easy to highlight that undervaluation..
fab- just looked at the figures. at 46p pre placing price which is where it was prior to the placing for an average of 5 days then 28.6m shares gave it a mkt cap of £13.2m and not much cash left hence the raise. now 6.75p a share and 60 million shares in issue and £1.65m in cash, the market cap is now £4m of which £1.65m is in cash so in order for it to be priced accordingly (£13.2m) then the shares would need to be 22p a share.
but in reality it has £1.65m in cash now that it didn’t have before so if we add the cash aspect into its valuation then that’s another 3p a share so effectively 25p per share would be the same mkt cap prior to the recent dilution and allowing for the cash element now built into it. so that’s just based on the price of the shares before the placing and we already know that was low anyway. so if we look at share prices and market caps at various prices pre dilution we get the following figures.
at 50p a share that would equate to 24p a share now and 3p cash element on top of that so 27p a share. at 75p a share that would equate to 35p a share and 3p cash element on top of that so 38p a share. at £1 a share (again pre dilution) that would be 48p a share now and 3p cash element on top of that so 51p.
basically the company was worth £13.2m just 2 weeks ago but having raised £1.65m it is now valued at just £4m with £1.65m in cash or just £2.35m if you remove the cash element. if the placing had not taken place and the shares fell to this mkt cap then they would have fallen from 46p (£13.2m mkt cap) to 8p a share (£2.35m mkt cap). can you imagine how much these would have been snapped up if they suddenly fell from 46p a share to 8p a share literally overnight and for no reason.
basically the market has totally got this valuation wrong now and it’s got several hundred %percent to do just to get back to fair value at what it was just 2 weeks ago without any additional news etc. obviously if we get a raft of positive news then these things really could go back to £1 a share pre placing which as per my calculations would be 51p a share including the cash element. either way that you look at it, these at a very minimum should be sat 22-25p a share and the only reason they aren’t right now is folk are selling cheap because they bought cheap without actually doing the sums and i’m pretty sure once all the slack stock has been taken into sticky hands these will rise back up rapidly and those traders selling for their relatively small % gains will wonder why they didn’t hold onto these golden tickets.