RE: LP -16 Aug 2024 14:31
LilPeep I hope your family difficulties are resolved as soon as possible. Family and health are the most important things in life.
Regarding the discussion the other day about potential takeover, it's always possible - Assore can come back if they wish. They will be getting a top asset at a bargain price if shareholders allow it to happen.
Overall, fundamentals haven't changed. The Ewoyaa Project has a forecasted OPEX of US$377/t and All In Sustainable Cost (AISC) of US$675/t. Many lithium projects cannot live with lithium prices below US$1,000/t and will mothballed (note it will take a couple of years to restart a project of any magnitude).
Much of the world economy works on supply and demand. The depressed lithium price has made many new lithium mines unviable. It is forecasted that lithium demand will outstrip supply in 3 years time. Atlantic will be producing in volume by 2026. Any new mining projects will take 10 years to get into production.
I understand that the offtake agreement (and associated pricing) has already been agreed (I'm guessing a Chinese party), and no doubt Atlantic were hoping (as we all were) to announce the deal immediately after Parliament ratification. Unfortunately, despite the Ghanaian Government wanting the deal, most of the Opposition party wanting the deal and the locals wanting the deal, the parliamentary session descended into farce with not enough members present to pass the vote. It was purely party politicking ahead of the upcoming elections. Ratification will happen when parliament reconvenes hopefully not too long after 3rd September. There is too much at stake for Ghana and the people for the project to fail. Whether or not the offtake agreement is announced before ratification, I am not sure - it's possible but not a given.
I had #ALL as a strong buy at 25p and then 20p. I am fortunate I can afford to play the long game - many can't; so I can understand some investors frustrations but at 15p I think the stock is in my view still a strong buy. The risk has increased slightly but the risk reward scenario is very attractive at this price level.