Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Jack, thanks for confirmation of the Victory calculation below, if they get anywhere near the "new norm" prices (or even 1/2 of it), this deal really could blow the doors off, smoking calculators indeed.
Had a look at that report you linked, hats off to you if you made it all the way through! Think Churchill's call for brevity can still be applied to all Gov departments (& industry too for that matter).
Agree with you & Watts, the time being taken to get these opportunities up and running against the backdrop of energy security is verging on the criminal (by the Gov/regulators, not the businesses).
Thanks Nigel:
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/426661/corallian-reaches-key-milestone-on-road-to-victory/
Report states peak production rates of "148.6 million cubic feet per day", one therm is 96.7 cubic feet (say 100 cubic feet).
148,600,000/100 = 1,486,000*£1.25 = £1,857,500/day * 365 = £677,987,500/year?! This ignores 15.4 tonnes of condensates per day.
Please tell me where I've gone wrong, these numbers are surely far too high?
Cheers Jack, really hoping the time is being taken for something spectacularly beneficial for us shareholders! Good recall on the "strategic investors", had forgotten about that & may well be in play.
Uggy, there was a massive grin on Stephen's face & he said something to the effect that "Victory was gone", so hoping they're just deciding whether to drink Dom Perignon or Cristal for the celebrations......
Reabold Resorces has SIC Code 64304 - Activities of open-ended investment companies.
Reabold North Sea Ltd has SIC Codes 06100 - Extraction of crude petroleum, 06200 - Extraction of natural gas
The company has been set up specifically for the "Extraction of oil & Gas", not for supporting activities/exploration/investment. So I assume whatever is moved into the shell company must be producing?
Anyone with sector experience know if this is of any interest/importance? Thanks
Cheers Jack,
Agree that it is a pretty difficult one to close down given all the variables in play at the moment.
They did look pretty pleased with themselves at the presentation a couple of weeks back, so here's hoping we get some significant value out of this transaction.
Might it be possible that the purchaser is trying to tie an option on WN into the Victory, deal hence the length of time it is taking to complete?
Stupid case scenario of gas price at £240/therm.....
Gross value of Victory @ 50p/therm £193M + £85M development costs = £278M
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/victory-gas-field-west-of-shetland-uk-continental-shelf/
Stupid estimate of £2.40p/therm gives a revised net value of ((£278M/0.5)*£2.40)-£85M=£1,249M
Purchaser pays 33% of value to acquire = £412M, RBD 50% share = £206M
Jack, as you say, the increased gas price has a "disproportionately" beneficial impact on the projects NPV as the fixed costs to develop the asset are already accounted for in base NPV calculation and are independent of the gas price.
You're estimation might be more accurate than mine, but at £1.25/therm and a 67% discount on the calculated NPV, the purchaser would still be netting an estimated profit if £409M. Pretty good business I think.
Gross value of Victory @ 50p/therm £193M + £85M development costs = £278M
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/victory-gas-field-west-of-shetland-uk-continental-shelf/
Conservative estimate of £1.25p/therm gives a revised net value of ((£278M/0.5)*£1.25)-£85M=£610M
Purchaser pays 33% of value to acquire = £201M, RBD 50% share = £100.5M
No volume & still pulled down 6% atm, something really not right here.
Nicos, looks like they had 911,009,907 shares at 31.12.2021, reduced by circa 20m to current holding of 892,961,230.
No sell off as far as I can tell, just a disclosure as they have fallen below a 10% holding?
Fair comments all.
I'd ideally like a 7 bag from my average (who doesn't!), a 7 bag from here would be welcome, but feel a bit disappointing.
Have a good (hot!) weekend everyone.
Fabulous song dee, great dancing skilz there!
Over 2 months now since this was announced. Even the more cautious/realistic entries for the guessing game thought we'd be done & dusted before the end of June. 2 weeks since the investor event when this was pretty much declared as done.
Surely we must get completion soon.
This is what S&S have to do for Victory now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRl_sBg6GX8
Thanks for the considered response Selfish, more likely correct than I am. Never shorted myself either, probably why I've never made much money doing this ! Guess my concern is that we're nearly 50% down from when the conditional offer was made & good news on Victory sale confirmation won't see us move as given our low starting price.
I like the sound of a "slow motion tree shake", hoping that's the case!
To what end though Selfish? Where is the mm's interest in maintaining negative sentiment, low volume and dropping the price on a share? Unless someone is accumulating 100's of millions of shares, surely they would make more money if there was lots of interest, volume & upwards motion on this share?
Not looking for an argument, but I've been in a number of shares where this explanation of mm shenanigans has been put forward & ultimately its just been a bad share. Not saying that will be the case here, but I just don't understand the narrative that everything in the company is great but the mm's just don't want us to have fair value on our share price.
I'll take your word for it dee & Watts might well be right, but on the face of it, we've had 20M sells & 1M buys today.
Painful wait as always with RBD, just hope the effort is worth it.
Cheers
Agree Uggy, following was from 17th Jan RNS, plenty of oil back then!
· Independent study by RPS Group* indicates potential for initial production rates of 35.6 million cubic feet of gas per day ("mmcfd") (5,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day "boepd") from a horizontally drilled well situated in the gas zone, based on the data from the West Newton A-2 well
· Study also indicates potential initial production rates of 1,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from a horizontally drilled well situated in the oil zone, based on well data from West Newton A-2
· Fluid analysis confirms that hydrocarbon liquids recovered to surface are low specific gravity, low viscosity, light oil or condensate, and that gas recovered to surface is good quality with high heat content
I'm a bit surprised that the selling is continuing this morning. Price has held up though, mm's normally want to drag this down if someone sells £2.99 worth.
Agreed Uggy, thought the presentation was pretty good on the whole & they seemed relieved/very happy with the Victory outcome. Here's hoping we now get definitive news in short order.
Just watched the full presentation for the first time. Goodness, those were rubbish questions from the audience.