luckyswimmer, I think it is more positive (and negative :-)) than that.
The NPV at 50p/therm covers the (IIRC) £105M capex to bring this on prospect online.
As the price increases, the profit/therm increases massively, as does our NPV. We'll obviously never get a 16 times multiple, but I'll take 6X with a non linear NPV, say £1.8Bn & 50% share to us.
So 10pps just for Victory.
Truthfactory, what's your best guess?
Given how we've bounced around, I'm assuming 0.4p is quite a strong resistance point.
If we get through it this week, what the prediction of the next leg up?
Hopefully planning permission next week will boost us anyway, but interested as to any views?
Thanks
This time next week Watts we'll be millionaires (or break even with any luck!)
Ended up better than expected, had about 4 questions answered.
Maybe reading too much into it, but definitely got the feeling a Corallian update will be out soon.
Just posted a few thanks Watts
Pretty disappointing so far, just repeating stuff we already know.
Can't understand why they don't update the Victory NPV10 with a far more bullish value/therm.
Attendee chat also disabled at the moment.
Thought it only fair to change the heading!
Well done to you both, I really did hover over the buy button, but decided I had enough here already. A way back to profit for me yet, but sure we'll get there.
You should have listened to persi et al. mate, fancy being so foolish as to buy large chunks at 0.11p a few weeks ago......
Oh, wait, carry on :-)
Thanks Troajan, appreciated.
"......they probably ended 2021 with about £4.8mm."
https://tenor.com/search/loads-of-money-gifs
From John Smith on UJO Twitter feed 2nd Feb. Couldn't find the updated stats, but looks like far fewer objections to the revised WN planning application. "Today there are 105 public objections to the revised #Westnewton planning application which expires on 8 Feb. There were 1122 public objections to the previous application. Rathlin have done their homework to minimise the risk of another refusal. #UJO #RBD @UnionJackOilplc"
Cheers Selfish.....no-one here is happy with the current state of affairs (unless you bought your holding at .11!), we all know that.
Good debate on the pro's & con's are welcomed by all I think, shame we just get so many on here knowingly misrepresenting the truth.
Good luck, hope we get some decent news soon.
LOL RNST, yup, I can and just did.
That was some great scrambling & whataboutery to try and recover your position, always said you were the best of the paid bashers. Another pile of garbage to obfuscate from the reality, so think you might be docked a few quid by your boss this week for some slipshod work.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-15179782-2vu4qo7depujmaf0o36s4ro4ua
"The Victory project is a relatively simple, sub-sea tie-back gas development (in 158m water-depth), which has been fully appraised and requires no additional pre-development drilling. A Competent Persons Report (CPR) has recently been completed by RPS Energy Limited (RPS), following the finalisation of both static and dynamic modelling, together with well / network optimisation studies for the development. RPS estimates a total Victory field 2C or best / mid case technically recoverable resource of 179bcf dry gas1. This estimate represents a 14% increase over the previous interim CPR completed by SLR Consulting in December 2020 of 157bcf of technically recoverable gas. Corallian's updated 2C economic valuation (NPV10) of Victory, based on an historical average gas price valuation of 50p/therm, has increased from £146 million to £193 million. Corallian remains on track to submit its draft Victory Field Development Plan to the OGA before the end of 2021, together with the Environmental Statement for the project which will be lodged concurrently with BEIS (OPRED)."
Got to admire your chutzpah:
"Your comment about Capex was slightly misleading." No, it wasn't, the report was independently produced by:
https://www.rpsgroup.com/sectors/energy/
Your comment though:
"1: It requires someone with £200mm and then another £125mm of development capex for first gas in 2025?"
Is a pack of lies.
No bonus cheque for you this month. Have a look, might stop you looking like a fool next time:
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/npv-examples/
Hi Uggy, I agree with your statement, but there must be some basis for a valuation.
NPV will include all costs and anticipated revenues/costs (unless there are very specific rules governing O&G, but would be surprised if that was the case.
Taking RNST's post (and accepting there may still be other issues as he flagged), we can add the £125M capex costs to his anticipated sale for tens of millions and come up with an RNST approved minimum sales price of £175M.
"1: It requires someone with £200mm and then another £125mm of development capex for first gas in 2025?"
My understanding is that an NPV is the discounted future cashflows of a project, including both the initial investment (capex), future revenue stream and operating cost.
The £125M you refer to as capex you refer to above will surely already be factored into the current £193M NPV10 at 50p/therm?
But the NPV of £200M is based on a historic price of 50p/therm.
Current prices are over 200p/therm and have been double that recently.
Selling for £200M isn't therefore really at current NPV and if futures are at 100p/therm, that's still a 50% discount.
Why do you think £200M is too much?
Thought we were on the right track with the recent increases, but looks like heavy selling this morning.
The wait here is so tedious, I've even started looking at crypto, what could possibly go wrong :-(
Don't agree with you on Novykluk dm, just the posting style IMHO.
He/She/Ze/They (hopefully all bases covered) generally posts in a pretty informed, positive fashion (waiting 5 minutes for Novykluk to be outed as a persi multi :-(............)
Gas price currently 224p/therm, peaked at 452p/therm in December.
Victory valued at £193M on 50p/therm
Sale realised at 125p/therm would give a payday of £482M, 50% to RBd £242M
Current MC £22M
Therefore 10x increase from current sp would give us 2.4pps
This ignores any other value from other assets
Think you're correct Uggy.
8 trades so far today, 23M "sells" vs 1M "buys" & no movement in the sp?
Rinse & repeat from yesterday, no movement all morning then pops up in the afternoon?