Member Info for CHEQUEMATE

Hi W
decided to call it a day here and take my losses on the chin. It seems from what I have read that this is sort of fund is not a good place to hold for any length of time, and is much more suited as a very short term trade. I am not really in a position to do that other than buy and put on an immediate stop loss which I failed to do at the appropriate time. It will now no doubt be the signal for SUK2 to rise.

My feelings haven't changed re the market generally, but for this to give me a positive return then SUK2 would have to rise 10% and more, meaning the FTSE would have to fall considerably. I believe the market will fall, at some time, but a lot of the bad news is already priced in. I have a buy order for a lower price when I may try my luck again. We all make mistakes, at least I come out with not losing TOO much and haven't held on to the bitter end.

Will still be around if you want to stay in touch. Thanks for your thoughts.

Good luck

CM

Makes me think all the bad news is already priced into the FTSE and/or the market is turning a blind eye. The question is for me, how long do I hold?. I am not one for averaging down. I can always sell and buy back in - key for FTSE to fall and SUK2 to rise. Can't watch this all day. I do have a stop loss set for my initial buy at 427, but not the second at 476 (ugh).

Hope CBX is treating you better W.

Wonder how the Chancellors' announcement will affect the market tomorrow?. Is the market already pricing in what they believe will be said?. Who knows?.......certainly not me!.

Good luck

CM

Bit late getting back to you - work weekends!, but here goes.

Interesting to see you adding to SUK2, thought you maybe more likely to leave. How long will the market rally in this environment?. Difficult to know. Regarding interest rate rises, well, you would think that would not be good for the stock market but I think the quarter point rise was what the market was expecting so it reacted positively. Had the rate not been raised the market would have thought things must be worse than believed and headed down. Had the rates been raised by half a point then the market would have thought the same, so would have likely to have headed down (all imo). The idea of raising interest rates is of course to try and control inflation, but inflation is being driven up not so much by demand and wages but by rising fuel costs, gas costs and supply costs of production, shortages of supply which is very different. I am not sure raising interest rates will work to control that sort of inflation. If it is to control demand, to take the heat out of the economy then surely that is going to happen anyway with the current situation. Times are going to get tougher for the vast majority of us without raising interest rates surely. But, of course, I only know what I think I know and I am absolutely no authority on such matters and don't have access to the essential information and facts to make the necessary decisions; I/we have to trust in those making the decisions.

I am unable to look at the trade at 10.50, I can only see the trades going back so far. But it sounds as though someone has the same idea as you.

Heaven knows what will happen this week. Things can change so quickly. I think some were thinking that there was a possibility of talks between Ukraine and Russia but the way I see it, Putin won't give up anything. He won't stop until he has what he wants. That is seriously bad news. The key player here may well be China, it sure won't be the West. Putin is laughing in our faces. Thank goodness I have done my time in the forces!.

Good luck with your trading W.

CM

Blind faith, courage of my convictions......or just plain daft?. Take your pick to describe why I am still in here. I went out this morning with the price rising after a low start to come back to see if had fallen back and then after the market had closed, I thought at 418p to see it is infact at 414p!. Okay, not heavily in here but still a kick in the pants.

Perhaps the market is liking the view of their head buried in the sand, ignoring the world. Interest rates up, oil price rising again, tax rises and heating prices rising, war in Ukraine, parts of China going back into lockdown....but the sun is shining and well.........we don't want to dwell on things. Is all the bad news priced into the market?, is the only way is up from here?. I don't know.

Should have had a stop loss and say "oh well, such is the world, nevermind and move on" should it get triggered. Hmm, something for me to work on this evening.

Hope all is well with others.

CM

No, I'm still here. I may have set a stop loss at around 435 possibly?, don't know but it opened quite a bit down. The market always seems to be at least one step ahead of me, most of us.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring?.

CM

Glad you are still here.

Bit like the hokey kokey here for you isn't it W?!, lol. There is a word which rhymes with "rollocks" which describes my day here today. As soon as I sell you can be sure of one thing........ Classic reason for holding of course. This has been down all day. So have you sold out again or are you still in?. Guess that is your trade at 14.20 for 4696, that's 10 times more than I have!.......good luck to you. And I am not trying to worry about losing £4.45 a p move, ha ha!. How far will it fall before (any) climbing and to what level can it climb?......depends on sentiment of the market of course.

Which share does the gap 615-538 apply to?. IGG?.

IGG turned around after a good start only to fall back sharply then climb back. Should have put more into that than SUK2, but then again.........that would have put the mockers on it for sure!. Lets see what happens later with the DOW, up around 300 points just now.

CM

I would like to believe that IGG had done its' due diligence before buying TastyTrade and knew what a fair value was. There would have been a degree of compromise between what IGG wanted to pay and what TT would accept. Although difficult to admit, I think we have to trust that IGG knew what they were getting, after all, they would have access to all the facts and figures whereas we don't. I for one do not know better than IGG. It is not unusual, indeed quite common, for a share price to fall back on the day a company announces updates, I've seen it many times. Not that it matters so much, but one broker has re-iterated its' buy rating on IGG today, make of that what we will. The trend here has been neither one way nor the other for some time, and I guess it will continue. Seems to be one step forward then another back, repeat. Is this a buying opportunity?......Heaven only knows!. Wait and see for me.

With respect - "What might have been", oh yes, definitely but we will never know. What might have been had there not been Covid, nor the Russian invasion and war of/with Ukraine?...another unknown. It is what it is.

Good luck all

CM

Thanks for that W.

IGG getting a mild kicking today on an update, so so much of a hedge here or indeed there.

Interesting approach you have to setting a stop loss; I can certainly see the merit in it.

I agree with your thoughts about the U.S. Futures show a rise there but I have seen how quickly there can be a reversal both sides of the Pond.

Think I will just get out for a while and try and ignore the "noise" as some would say.

CM

I agree with your thoughts MTB.

Share price shot up on opening, then sharp fall back, some recovery since. Could someone enlighten me please as to what 'meme stocks' are?, sorry if that sounds a dumb thing to ask.

Taverham - good luck with your investment. IGG does seem to be volatile at times. It does pay a dividend though which is why I am in slight profit over the time I have held here.

gla

CM

Good morning W., hope all is going well.

I am still in here. Not sure today is going to be such a good day with the FTSE forecast to open up by maybe 100 points or so. I am up, slightly on my first purchase at 427p but down on my second at 476p, but combined it works out to be around 4.5p a penny move, so in the course of things it isn't a huge amount. I am not in a position really to make a quick trade, in and out, so perhaps SUK2 and alike isn't the best of trades to be in. Rather gain a little slowly than lose a lot quickly (or even slowly come to that). As I have said previously, I am using this more of a hedge. The market as a whole is very volatile as we know and any poor news will have its' effect.

The question is, do I bail out of here and take a loss or hold knowing that the loss may well get larger, but not hold too long by setting a stop loss when the loss gets to a certain amount?, only I can answer that one for myself of course. Can't see there is much good news out there still although the oil price has fallen back - when will we see that reflected at the petrol pumps?, not as quickly as we saw them rise.

Have a good day. Markets just opened.

CM

£500k?, more like £500 if it was me. £500k, gee; if that is so, someone's got confidence..or more money than they know or care what to do with!.

My question to you W is.........did you make enough profit on your shorts to buy a full litre of fuel this time?!. "Every little helps!", yes.......but come on.......be serious.

Incidentally, when this went up the other day.......was it yesterday?, it wasn't by twice what the FTSE100 went down. Funny that.........I thought that was the whole idea of this trade,,,then again......what do I know?!.

Think the rise with the markets yesterday was a lot down to folk looking for a quick bargain.

Time cracking on. Lets hope for a good day tomorrow

CM

£1000 for 3 days.........cheap at half the price!.

CM

Hi W.
Yes, I noticed BOO soaring. I read the RNS first thing and was unimpressed; it didn't say anything that wasn't known nor expected and, crucially in my opinion, gave no outlook. Very basic. Needn't have bothered. Surprised and then again perhaps not surprised that the share price has jumped. I read a number of the posts on their board and could see no reason for such excitement, but then..........what do I know?.

You mention about a gap opening between 77.80 and 84.67, is that the last closing price and the opening price?. Could you explain what you mean by "gaps generally get filled?", sounds like you are expecting a retrace. Just interested. Thanks.

A calmer day for me here re SUK2 and IGG. SUK2 doesn't seem to know which way to turn, up one moment, down the next.

Take it easy

CM

Thanks for that W. I appreciate your thoughts and your time. I would usually put a stop loss on at around 10% down and try and move it up as the price went up. A 10% loss from 476p would set a stop loss at, what?, around 430p. £1000, or there abouts, loses me £100 + costs; not a great deal hence why I am waiting/sitting things out. I have more than £1000 in here, having bought in at around 428p previously. This is so volatile things can change very quickly up or down, down or up. Hmm, wonder if it is worth setting a stop loss for tomorrow with a buy order back in at a little lower than that?. If there is a rally, where is it heading to?, 7400 (3%), 7550 (5%), 7910 (10%)?. Translating that into 2x movement for SUK2 means a price of 421, 403 and 358. What is the likelihood of any of those under the current circumstances?. Well, maybe the first......

I first became aware of SUK2 through the writings of Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader. He has used it in the past as a valuable tool to hedge. I read his blogs and have read a number of his books. He makes a lot of sense in easy to read and understand ways, easy reading. I wonder what his thoughts are re the market right now?.

BOO, still profitable, little debt. Yes, but what will the outlook be in tomorrows update?. The market is interested in the future, not in the past. I am in retail, so I know a lot about the problems with supply and rising costs of production, shipping costs, delay in meeting orders......some dates are for delivery either late this year and/or early next year. The problem isn't to do with demand.......it's supply. In my line of work, outdoor equipment and clothing we have had to obtain a lot of sample clothing so we don't have a half empty, or optimistically have a half full shop, so that we have something to offer customers. Buy why you see it folks and before the new stock comes in at an additional 10%, if you are lucky.

CM

.......for a quick profit with SUK2. I think my break even is/was around 458p having upped what I had in here the other day. I have a stop loss set on my first trade which is quite a long way below what the price is at present, emphasis on the words "at present". Perhaps I should have put a stop loss on the overall trades I have but failed to do so. Can't/don't want to be sitting in front of the laptop all day watching prince movement so I take the chance how things go. One of the reasons why I try not to have more than what I am comfortable "invested", although ANY fall back makes me feel uncomfortable.

Good luck with your trades. It will be interesting to see how that pans out. You seem to be doing pretty well so far with your judgements.....even SUK2 with your £1 + profit!, better than me (mind you, that won't be difficult). Guess you will be out promto once the trade is in your favour, or have you set yourself an exit price?.

I see the oil price has fallen back today, currently around $115 and gas back under 400p a therm (not that will make any difference to what we will get hit for).

Interesting day brewing again tomorrow with market so volatile. I feel the market is desperate for any good news and will hang onto it for as long as it can; looking for any reason to push up. I wonder what BOO will reveal in its' TU?, will it be a case of cheers or oh dears?. Probably best you took the profit you did. Too much like the tv game show of Deal or No Deal I fear.

CM

Well done you!. Now, had I tried that...............well...............not sure I would have done so well. Folks on BOO board will be clapping hands, beating their breasts, dancing around the garden with their shirts pulled over their heads with today. They will be anticipating that all is well and tomorrow will see a mega rise when the update is out. And maybe it will be. On the other hand......any disappointment will be punished and the shorters reducing their shorts maybe in anticipation that they can short again at a higher price having bought back at a lower price. The shorters haven't reduced by a great deal. I've just had a look at BOOs' last trading update from December. There were a lot of negatives. If profit warnings come in 3s, then there is more to come yet.........but I may be completely wrong. I think you have done really well, I take my hat off to you.

As for SUK2, well, it was/is going to fall back when the FTSE rises, the nature of the beast. However, is this a relief rally or something more sustained? Is the world suddenly in such a better and safer place?. And of course SUK2 is going to be volatile. I am of the opinion that folk don't know what it coming and how it is going to hit them when it comes to impending inflation. Once that is seen and reflected in companies financial updates and outlooks over the next few months then things may well look very different. Can you see companies reporting positive updates when the costs of producing anything, plus transportation costs will have increased plus customers will have reduced disposable income?.
It may take a little while for folk to accept that they will have to change their habits but I am sure it will happen. Perhaps I am grasping at straws for SUK2 rather than justifying my position. And in a number of ways I do want to be wrong. With todays downward movement I am now in the red. Apologies, I haven't said anything new and have been repeating myself. IGG has moved up nicely as a counter balance.

As you have said previously, the market seems to be following the price of oil to a large degree, down to around $123 from over $130, yippee.......that will make a huge difference at the pumps.......not!. Oh cynical me!.

Enough of my rambling. Need to get the circular saw out. Great therapy yesterday with the chain saw!.

CM

Good luck with BOO, you may need it. One thing for sure is you will be entertained, of a sort, by the posters!. I really shouldn't waste my time looking in at the BOO board each day, but can't help myself. Some clown who believes selling and then buying in lower is akin to shorting, which he is against. The fact that he (supposedly) bought in at around 40p, saw the rise to near 400p and has watched it fall nearly all the way back speaks volumes, fallen in love with BOO I feel. Such passion often leads to a costly divorce..........in more ways than one perhaps!. "Fun" position, okay W, ha ha, lol, whatever..........Not sure there is any room for disappointment in the BOO TU on Thursday.

Stopped out of SUK2, after a day, lol. Doesn't beat my record of being stopped out on the same day with BEG, but at least you managed a profit!. Well done. Better than most - you can put it towards a ltr. of petrol!.

Stay in touch

CM

Good morning W.

Another interesting day ahead I think. A day off for me, so I hope to get out reasonably shortly. I work 4 days a week these days, since last summer, although if the mess really hits the fan I may have to review that and return to 5 days; the easiest way to help financially if it comes to it. Life is about enjoying it as much as we can whilst we can, not about chasing finances only to find we've lost our sense of perspective to what really matters, a fact lost on many and only becomes real when adversity hits, we can't turn the clock back, (I can speak from a degree of experience).

Thanks re. Fibonacci Retracement, I may take a look some time.

I use HL for my trading. I did use SVS but changed because I wasn't happy. Just as well, they collapsed not too long after, and no, nothing to do with me.........I didn't have THAT much invested in them!.

Are you going to put a short on oil as suggested if it went above $125?. Some frightening suggestions this morning it could go up to $300. It is the cost of filling the car which at present is hurting me most.

Have a good day.

CM

Good evening W.

I had a buy limit this morning at 470, then feared I would miss it so increased it twice up to 480 before reducing it to 478, executed at just under 477. Then saw it rise and fall back to below what I paid by day close. We just never know what is going to happen as you yourself have found out on a number of occasions. Not too unduly bothered at paying around 7p more than what I could have, although, it was nearly 20p less than what I could have at its' high. Won't make a lot of difference in the long run..........or short run possibly. I have doubled what I had before today £wise; still peanuts to many but enough for me to sleep (reasonably) easy.......at least for the time being. Don't invest more than what we are prepared and/or afford to lose, I really would feel uneasy at putting in more. For many folk that would be far more, and many would laugh at me for the amount I have in here, that is up to them of course, water off a ducks' back to me.

I have heard of Fibo retracements but can't remember too much about them. It seemed a little confusing. Another tool in the box. If you have the time perhaps you could help me understand them, but it will have to be in words of one syllable I'm afraid. I don't understand the percentages you have given and what they mean.

Dow is down nearly 800 points, 2.37%, NASDAQ 482 points, 3.62%, doesn't bode well for FTSE open tomorrow. FTSE future showing down over 60 points, around 1%. Means little until the market opens and what news there is over night. Surprised FTSE recovered so much during the day, may be folks were desperately trying to breathe life into it. We'll see.

Regards

CM

Bought in some more at 476/477p early this morning with a limit order. Saw price rise a good deal early on, since when it has fallen back. Dow futures is showing down 500 points but maybe priced in already. Wait and see time. Volatile market

gla

CM