Morning All10 Feb 2020 06:16
Hope you all had a good weekend, and well the storm in London wasn"t so bad, just heavy winds and mixed with rain which is still the script. But as die hard Brits are used to that.
Was looking a bit more closely at our Interims, and my original choice of a raising in October, which I did bring forward to Early September. Well I think that was somewhat optimistic given we had a cash flow of £5.7m at end October 2019. I made the the same mistake ""again" in thinking we had more cash than expected, which would have been the case had it been end January, but just taking 500k a month cash burn to the end of February leaves us with £3.79 cash, end May £2.29m!!!
With a 25 patient trial to begin in U.S.A and U.K for SCIB1,and solving the manufacturing problem with Moditope for what we hope will be an end of year trial, I believe early 2021, the three collaborations running to Sept, Dec and January as much as I deel they will bring our first commercial deals, I doubt that will be by April2020, considering the agreements are for 12 months, so for me April/May could well be the time of our raise, with a cash balance left of circa £2.5m.
What kind of raising to expect???? Well that is always down to opinions, but in the absence of any commercial deals from Avidamab , I feel we will go for a £5/6m raise. After all if Vulpes are allowed and want to raise their stake to 30% they can buy 12.67% more, which amounts to with 495 shares in issue, another 63m shares. If that we as exercised at 6p, that would bring in about £3.8m without doing an OO as well, but that would see us through to end of year, when we will know where we stand with Avidamab and possible early results from SCIB1 trial early patients dosed, as well as anything that might become of BioNTech and Moditope. The advantage of such a raise is that when Vulpes first bought in at 5p the share was driven up to 9.75 last July, almost double the price they paid, this time on that basis why not the same with SCIB1 trial enrolling patients which should be the case by then. The 12% dilution would be set aside by any rise and I for one would support that, as long as the Company feel happy with one party owning 30% of theirs. Their could well be many other scenarios, but this one in the absence of a new party taking new issued shares at a higher price seems more realistic.
Apart from my Sept/October forecast a few others went for Q3 too, but figures don"t lie, and that is the best I can do with them. I think the Vulpes deal will be a good interim situation until we think of MOD1, as by then there could be quite a few other commercial deals coming to fruition. Importantly I don"t see the SP coming much further down, and bearing in mind we rose to 9.75 last July, we shouldn"t fear any raising. So more collaborations please, Trial site news, and support at 7p as in recent times. ATVB