Member Info for charlie229

Tesla up +6.2% right now amid the news of the passed stimulus bill... How long are the US gov going to put off this crash?
Might sell and get back in when things settle down a bit - what do you think?

This weird cult retail culture is going to end swiftly, the majority of people will lose money as the early investors take their gains.
Personally I feel Tesla is a $150-200/share company but also see these people supporting it at $300-400 as "a steal".
I'm on reddit and posted some DD on tesla as a short position and was swamped with people telling me its going nowhere, it'll never drop below $700, buying at $700 is a "no brainer".... the level of delusion is pretty impressive.

Where can you see this dropping to? For me the $400 range is likely and hopefully, for my sanity, lower

Declare what....? Haha

Thanks Chief - I bought through T212at $0.00861 which now puts me c.12.5% up (inclusive of FX impact), total in at £10k.
My expectation was that after yesterday's tesla performance (-8%), I would be up 3x the inverse of that (+24%) - but I'm only half of that. The spread is significant but doesn't account for it all, especially considering I'm up +1.33% due to FX

I just invested a hefty sum into this as I feel Tesla is one of the most grossly overpriced stock out there

But Tesla is down -4% and I’m still negative - do you know why? I thought it would be more closely correlated and live?

It’s not the spread before anyone thinks I’m a newbie haha, it’s the fact the price increase isn’t going up while Tesla is going down

If you think the stock price is going down you think:
- the Bitcoin cult will continue to sell
- the finite nature of Bitcoin doesn’t lead to an increase in its value
- Argo will stop becoming the best performing company in this industry
- them increasing production outputs is bad

I don’t think any of that is true... so....

This is now a strong buy, short, medium or long term

Short term = the price drop exceeds that of Bitcoin when they are correlated

Medium term = Argo is still nowhere near the multiple of its competitors

Long term = Bitcoin will continue its march upwards and Argo is the best performing company in its industry

I think a likely situation for Metro when results come out are:
1) Grim Reading
2) Share Dip
3) Comparison to other banks, not as bad as it first seemed
4) Realisation that Metro have done exceptionally well stemming the loses
5) Reinvestment into the share & renewed confidence vs bigger banks
6) Complete short sell off

No bank is going to post great results but I'm fully confident that there is going to be quite a staggering turnaround by Metro. Bad results are never good, but when the ones before them were boarderline catastrophic, bad becomes pretty good. Especially compared to the rest of the industry

JJ - I love this, it's like a synthetic CDO (betting on the outcome of a bet/trade) haha apart from the losses do something good for the world. Good idea

Fair value is easily higher - it’s at least a £1bn bank, at the very cruelest valuation

This stock has next to no impact now due to shorts, this isn’t GME, it’s not heavily shorted

Bad fundamentals led to the shorts, now they are better and it went past a fair SP on the way down as sentiment reduced.

Now it’s recovering as shorts sell and sentiment returns - the sentiment is the key

I read this board and people think it’s “going to the moon” this week, setting up groups talking about it on telegram and Twitter etc... it’s going up but looking for hyper gains over a short term is going to make you make short term decisions - these tend to not be that wise in investing

GLA

Hi guys,
I'm looking into this company to buy and feel I'm missing something - I understand they have net losses but the rest of the fundamentals look immense.
The company is £400m market cap which if I were to acquire that company it would be a steal - makes no sense to me. Looks like this is a case of a well performing company that lost the confidence of investors but is still performing in the billions

Am I missing anything?

I've been patiently waiting for this since October and buying up since, I'm hoping this is the moment momentum comes.
Before when we gathered gains in SP, the shorts were still strong - now they are closing positions and to cover them is going to drive the price up.

I'm cautious not to rally this stock though, I want to avoid day traders and people in for short gains. This is easily a £1bn company now at 75% off. Smart money is to hold until £4.50-6 - although I think in a few years we will see a near full recovery of this share.

Lets not forget 2mil customers, I personally use them for my business and they are great, very low hassle and easy to set up

Although retail investing volumes in the UK is nowhere near the volume in the US, or in the US stock market, if we can get enough buy and hold investors then the share price inches up and provides stable ground to build on.

There is nowhere near enough shorts to replicate that high growth in GME or AMC but we could easily see a return to a £5+ SP in the next year if there was a rally IMO - just needs some momentum

I simply look at this and think - would someone buy metro for £200mil (their market cap) - the answer is undoubtedly yes.
The losses sustained are temporary and the rest of the fundamentals are good.

Even at £400m market cap it looks cheap - I'm keeping my money here and adding as frequently as possible regardless of daily SP at the moment. Long term it really only looks like it can go one way

Unless someone can tell me otherwise, from what I see, the following is happening:
- Metro fundamentals far better than SP shows
- CEO and board bought shares up
- Shorts reducing position
- Previous high of £40 SP now at £1.3, not a huge amount has changed that doesn't follow the sector trend since its SP was about £20
- Just judging on the 2mil+ customers it has the SP is too low

I've overly simplified things but this looks like a ticking time bomb now - it's just about pressuring short sellers.

I've been investing monthly into this since it was 62p and never understood how it could be so low, time will tell if thats foolish or not - but I just cant see the reason why its so low

@Dontaskme - I see a lot of articles on THG about it owning retail (4-5x revenue multiple max) or being in the nutrition space (highly competitive), or that it's own tech platform won't ever exceed shopify etc.

But note all of the above - this is ONE company doing all of it. The UK market don't understand that this is an operation that achieve end to end success. Buying Dermstore for example isn't because THG is "in retail" its increasing its sales footprint to launch its own brands through and expand it's operations in another country.

Brands > Platform > Operations > Affiliate/PR/Influencer network > Retailer > consumer

If THG launch a brand tomorrow, it would be one of the fastest growing new brands in the UK - in either the nutrition or beauty niche which are some of the biggest consumer industries in the UK, US, EU and Asia. Making a retailer profitable is hard, they have done it and will do it again with Dermstore - not because they think retail is a great space, quite the opposite, but they know they need it as part of the above consumer flow - and its DATA.

If traders were half as smart as what they think they are then they could tell that this isn't a retail company, its a company that is lining up the ecom industry just before it explodes - and doing it rather well.

@Dan - absolutely - it's one of those companies that has the capacity to grow continually over the next 5-10years at a very good rate. Bare in mind they are now saying growth YoY will be c.35% and this company is 16years old and has experienced growth like this continuously over that period (and more). Those that followed THG before IPO will know a 30-35% increase is not uncommon - now they have the capital to acquire companies the acquisition stage looks to be quite aggressive

Much better than anticipated, surprised the SP hasn't moved more! Awesome long term outlook for THG though

@Keepcalm You’re not wrong, as mentioned - doesn’t stop people from looking at it and making up their own mind does it?