Member Info for Charlie1984

Shaa and Aker all good this end sat in the airport few hood LHR , Qatar then Bangkok single business class flight £4870 we are in the wrong business.

Apologies for the slow reply managed to bust the zip on my new suitcase so frantically trying to get another and get to the airport.

All good now ping in hand and watching the SP rise flush the traders out.
I see a few are still happy to make their small gains but the real gains will be on the concurrent news flow.
INO still massively undervalued.
Atomic was a fantastic deal with out FD s d the WTI was on it knees now China opening back up. Speaking daily with my team who are on the ground in China as part of my current FPSO project so expect the WTI to keep rising as demand increases.
Look at the MC and SP on re-list after suspension now throw FD and the ground made by the company and ask yourself what is the minimum Sp required to see true value …….
I don’t need to spit numbers out a excel spread sheet was produced and shared on social media during suspension shot down by some trolls but that was always going to happen now throw the extra reserves in FD into the mix, this is something we didn’t account for so any % given away means little to nothing as FD isn’t priced in but the JV wipes out the debt and accrues rates the drilling increasing our overall BOPD market still not fully awake and likely want to see more evidence of this BIG find as most believe it’s too good to be true. Now given the history on calculating reserves (as per AM interview) these figures quoted could be massively undervalued to fall in line with government legislation.

All in my opinion but do your home work peeps and view the interview lots of hints and tips as to what is away to land and a lot away to land very soon GLA

Hi duster,

The JV will take a % of the asset in this instance FD.

Now if the box clever they could offset the cost buying 10-20% of the shares in issue. However, I don’t think they would mount a take over amount of 30%.

Sorry should have been more clear in the posting.

I feel imo once a HV is announced a lot if private equity firms will be chomping at the bit.

JV could see us debt free and accelerated drilling at FD. FD could be potentially a lot bigger than the RSR.

JV partner has Caisson Liners this also speeds up the drilling and commissioning of the wells. (Previously mentioned by AM)

Strangely PIs talking about the JV buying in. I personally think they will take a position but will not be close to the 30% required to mount a take over.
This percentage might be 10-20% max to cover the JV partnership.
However, what we will see is a number of investment management / institutions buying in on the JV news, this will drive the SP North and make it more difficult for a potential take over but strengthen the SP and MC to where it should be ideally with our FD find, current gas already injected and the infrastructure the MC should be closer to $350-500m imo. Take a JV partner that wants the asset for carbon capture then the sky is the limit. We already know the reservoir is tight enough to support such capture and therefore imo offers more value.
Bangkok today landing in time for new year and the party celebrations, starting to notice the jumps in MC with these cheeky 8-10% jumps.
Anyone in msmn back in the day seen 10p to 55p on nothing in 2–3 trading days we have a hell of a lot more so 300-800% jump in a day wouldn’t be unwarranted especially once the bulls arrive, why frustrating I believe this wait will be well deserved for those invested GLA and all the best for 2023.
With a 40 year increasing curve those PE ratios on sales in a conflict free location could potentially go crazy. Given the time and effort by those with involved to create the previous excel spread sheets it might be worth while revisiting and amending the share figures and current MC.
EV/EBITDA compares the oil and gas business to EBITDA, and measures profits before interest.
EV/BOE/D doesn't account for undeveloped fields, so investors should determine the cost of developing new fields to get an idea of a company's financial health.
EV/2P requires no estimates or assumptions, and helps analysts understand how well a company's resources will support its operations.
Price/Cash flow per share allows for better comparisons across the sector.
Many analysts prefer EV/DACF because it takes the enterprise value and divides it by the sum of cash flow from operating activities and all financial charges. - link https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/11/common-multiples-used-in-oil-and-gas-valuation.asp

With a JV partner injecting cash we could potentially see debt wiped and drilling of FD accelerated. Given these points the main points above are covered from all bases.

Given the market is waking up to our potential (it’s taken it’s time) we should all be very, very happy with the progress and gains coming in 2023.
As previously posted I believe COPL is going to be the best performer of 2023 / 24.
FD can only develop and grow further imo with 48,000 square acres of reserves to explore this could end up being multiples of the current FD find - GLA

COPL right up there with the Hot Topics posted hitting - 775

Market movement suggests that everyone is starting to wake up and smell the coffee, period over Christmas and New Year with no trading / limited trading and potential JV news and further updates early to mid January, wondering if we see a few buying in frantically so they don't get caught out.

Away to finish work and heading to Bangkok Airport - Enjoy the holidays with the family everyone, see you all back in the New Year - my prediction COPL best share performer of 2023! GLA

Liked your post as you are correct.

Lots going on and happening behind the scenes unfortunately not the pace we would have hoped for but as you point out Art is the deal maker and will be looking for the best deal for COPL and it’s shareholders.
When playing chess you need to think many moves ahead sometimes this can mean slow progress but never the less gives you options and hopefully a better deal.
I listed a number of points in a previous post (see my history) a hell of a lot has been done and is getting done in the back ground.
The current SP is irrelevant unless you’re desperate to sell.
Cracking opportunity to get in or load up looks like a very promising Q1 folks. signing off now as I will be spending time with my family, flying back home this week, so stay safe Merry Christmas and all the wealth, health and happiness for you and your family members - GLA see you 2023

Shaa we live in hope.

Suspension and re-rate even a few speeding tickets.

Would love to see those traders burn, wonder how quickly they would disappear if an RNS similar to your suggestion landed. Lock those guys in the listen to them scream as they burn…….. come on Arthur ignite the fuse.

Blue or Red say does it matter? After all the MC doesn't reflect true value and price will re correct accordingly on news.

Interestingly if you go to the all time SP chart and open it up from 2014 to date you will see what’s wrong with the MC and see why we are undervalued massively imo.

Look at SP after purchasing Atomic and coming out of suspension please also consider the 100/1 share consolidation. Then consider these points
1.Gas in ground 2x current MC
2. Atomic purchase
3. Acquisition of Cuda
4. FD discovery (possibly one of the biggest onshore discoveries in recent years
5.Flaring licence agreed
6.WTI price over 100% up and at one point over 200% up since suspension was lifted
7. Additional wells being brought online
8. Infrastructure and ability to produce at site
9. Pipe-Line
10. Possibility for carbon capture (could hold the key to JV partner who will use this as Carbon storage)
11. Non-Conflict country
12. Drilling plan and schedule in place could be accelerated by JV
13. RBL due
14. Debt could be paid for from JV agreement
15. De-waxing completed
16. Analysis and understanding the licence area (much better place)

Probably a few more but you start to see what we have, now ask how you get that for a £36m MC you can't.

This is what makes this so special so yes the wait is painful for some but please keep de-ramping and allowing me to load up at these prices until news drops. GLA

Is you don’t like what YOU think is happening sell up very simple why spout BS all day ?

Or you sold already and trying to get a lower entry point ?

The gas in ground is worth more than double the MC, nothing happens over night if you can’t wait don’t move on.

LSE bb a wash with bed wetters.

No rush Art give me a week until I get paid before you drop the RNS so I can top up at these levels please ………..

GLA

Answers and transparency as to what is going on behind the scenes.................

All the details of what is going on has been addressed in recent RNS, what you will not see is details of what is going on until those deals are finalized.

Unfortunately for some this means waiting, and many unfortunately don't like to wait, the fluctuation up and down at this base level is frustrating granted but part of the waiting game.

Nothing happens overnight, and I am sure the wait is increasing more frustrating for those at the forefront, not only do they endure the same wait but no doubt a barrage of emails and more than likely abuse from disgruntled shareholders who want answers.

Some forget without Atomic and Cuda dilution would be happening to keep the lights on and not adding value. Dilution for Atomic and Cuda have been done to add value and that value has already started to be seen with the FD discovery which wasn't originally on the table. An announcement of JV partner with a big name will be transformational.

We aren't talking a few pound for chicken feed, we are talking 100s millions $$$.
Unfortunately borrowing money or waiting for investment requires a few more checks and double checks and review of figures and surveys before handing funds over.

If you like I believe in the assets and believe this will come good you're already in the driving seat if you hold your tickets, like the lottery you need to be in it to win it when news lands.

I am confident that we will have more updates in the run up to Christmas and this anguish and annoying wait will all be worth it.

WTI continues to hold its $80 price tag and market analyses forecasting it to strengthen in the coming months.

AM is surprised more than the rest of us that the SP and MC is valued so low, looking at his recent share purchases if he thought the SP would be languishing down at these levels he would have held off and purchased lower.

Things are going on behind the scenes, unfortunately not as fast as some would have liked or hoped for.
Another payday in the next 10 days and another opportunity to add to my holding, relaxed and confident to do so.

GLA

Lots of talk about traders playing this stock and dragging the SP down.
Strangely I wonder how many shorts might be open and if open given AM thought into this would he look at suspending trading is a JV was in place and a big re-rate was going.
Certainly put the among the pigeons things are looking interesting JV, billions of barrels of reserves, CO2 capture, RBL (if JV doesn’t also give cash to cover debt), additional wells being drilled, increased production list goes on - GLA

https://thecse.com/en/listings/oil-and-gas/canadian-overseas-petroleum-limited

The global oil market remains tight according to Saudi Aramco, the largest oil producer in the world. And that does not bode well for a world that still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

“Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says at a conference in London. “If China opens up, [the] economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”

Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.

“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

Nothing a surprise in that RNS, neutral market reaction should pull back to flat today imo

What Art has said is production figures are up so these will not be documented till Q4 figures are released.

Given the hurdles they have overcome in Q3 I think it’s reasonable to assume figures jump considerably next update.

With this in mind I will be using the opportunity to top up but each to their own.

Any future updates should start to show positive development and with RBL and/or JV news due as well as updates on drilling should be interesting moving forward.

It’s also worth pointing out that WTI has found a nice level above the $90 mark are posses well going forward GLA

Bigbench - The gas injection into the field thus far is more than our current MC so yes laughable given we have oil, we are producing, have infrastructure, continued increases in reserves.

See the usual posters wanting blood ................................. Yawn.

Strange how anything positive is given a negative twist yet they continue to post daily with no anterior motive! It's a good sign when these guys rock IMO.

Never mind guys must try harder, we know we have oil in the ground and lots of it and it will start to flow at higher volumes over the coming weeks and months.
AM has mentioned the JV partner in media interviews and now in RNS so in black and white. Remember all information disclosed in an RNS needs to be reviewed and confirmed by the NOMAD prior to being published (The JV isn't a buyout but a JV on the FD and if the same JV partner previously in talks with, have the caissons ready and waiting). Even the conditions for the drilling in the winter doesn't pose any issues in-fact AM has quoted it as being easier.

Fantastic RNS and looks like we should be ready for movement North and progressive and regular updates on the topic points GLA

I don't think is excited about nothing. We are overcoming teething problems and as per one of your previous posts COPL DO NEED to show they can increase, maintain and continue to increase output in the coming months.

Yes we have the reserves but we need to be able to demonstrate that we understand the field and are able to recover it.
This should be demonstrated in the next update along with a jump in the BOPD. As you also mentioned previously to get excited about a buyout the BOPD figure needs to be substantially higher an what the BOPD is aiming to achieve in the short, medium and long term.
We should be seeing a jump with the Cuda (as per the 12th September update RNS)
Material increases to COPL's 2P Reserves and NPV from those as at December 31, 2022 were due to the addition of the complimentary Cuda assets and the increase in crude oil prices as at July 31, 2022, which were as follows:

· Net Working Interest ("WI") 1P Reserves after royalties increased 47.2%;

· Net WI 2P Reserves after royalties increased 38.5%;

· Discounted 1P NPV increased 93.2%;

· Discounted 2P NPV increased 90.8%;

· Net 1P Reserves Unit Value increased 31.2%, and

· Net 2P Reserves Unit Value increased 37.8%.

I tend not to post that often any more, drop in and read the chat but far too much like a school playground full of keyboard warriors who have ulterior motives.
This share was fizzing along on the strength of OPL266 and would have seen dilution after dilution to pay the bills and wages to get to this point.
As a company the management have managed to seize an opportunity and purchased Atomic, this wasn't straight forward and seen the company placed into suspension.
A lot believed that this would rocked once that suspension was removed (myself included) but it done quite the opposite. The management have further strengthened their hand purchasing Cuda. Court cases, finance deals and at the time current economy and price of Oil I can imagine slowed the process down somewhat. However, what it has done is offered a fantastic opportunity for new investors and LTH to average down when funds allow.
Like any project nothing goes directly to plan and we have seen some teething issues. I think it's fair to say why a lot want more updates they will come when they are ready and I would rather focus on BOPD than writing RNS with no substance every week.
I have to say I was making contact with the company some time ago and a response was always quickly received. A lot of PI have burnt that bridge with abusive emails and ****ging off the CEO and company.
I am not too sure many could have built and completed a new build house in the same window , as such I use the window as opportunity to add to my holding.
We are now entering November and I am expecting to see a number of updates from the board, if they don't come straight away, don't worry they will don't forget AM and his family have a significant holding. I also don't think it will be long after the increase in BOPD and teething problems are fixed that we will see institutional investors looking to jump onboard given the 40+ year life of the field, increasing reserves and the fact that we are where we are in the life cycle of this venture.
Looking at the positives WTI is still holding a cracking price and according to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia has agreed to cut 3.3 million barrels a day from its current production levels of 12 million barrels per day and Russia has agreed to cut 2 million barrels per day from its current production of 10.4 million barrels per day - an amount that could drive oil and gas prices back up after weeks on a downward trend. With the US hoping that this would be increased, the opposite happened. The move is seen as a bid by Saudi Arabia to prop up prices, which had reached up to $120 a barrel during the spring but began to tail off over concerns about a slowing global economy. They fell to less than $90 a barrel in September.
So it's fair to say that these slight hurdles and OPEC decision to reduce output and strengthening dollar against the pound can only play into COPL investors hands.
GLA

Quick overview

COPL is a fast growing US-focused oil producer. It holds operated stakes in two adjacent oil fields in Wyoming, including Barron Flats where production is set to triple to a peak of ~7 kbopd (3.2 kbopd net to COPL) within 18 months. “(Tennyson Securities forecast, 19 August 2021)”

Little capital outlay is required to achieve these gains, as Atomic had invested heavily in new facilities and wells over 2018-19

COPL has a strong organic growth story in an accommodating jurisdiction, and an oil friendly state of Wyoming, and its assets offer near-term, low risk/high return development upside

The assets have an inclining production profile with low near-term capital expenditure all internally funded: COPL’s immediate focus will be the Barron Flats unit which has existing infrastructure and wells in place for a near-term step change in production. Current output is trending ahead of forecasts.

The Barron Flats assets are modern, environmentally friendly production facilities, producing high margin barrels: it has state of the art production facilities with no legacy abandonment liabilities, zero gas flaring and electricity sourced from an adjacent wind farm

The neighbouring Cole Creek Unit provides additional oil production growth through workovers and the Barron Flats Federal Deep Unit provides blue sky through exploration.

The Nigerian operations also provide significant potential upside

Wyoming asset, its production facilities, geological surroundings and what makes it so special!
If you haven't seen the presentation online I recommend following the below link. Worth a watch and only 9mins 34 sec

https://www.canoverseas.com/operations/

Barron Flats Unit
Reservoir simulation work suggests that additional production rates may be obtained through increased gas injection rates, proper miscible flood management and a successful development drilling program.
Federal Unit (Deep) (55.56% WI): 24,650 gross acres – significant upside in deeper horizons with horizontal wells

Cole Creek Unit
Initially, up to 17 cased oil wells (many currently suspended) will be re-completed and put back on to production in the second half of 2021.
Field limits will be defined by development drilling. A miscible flood project is to tentatively start when Barron Flats flood has plateaued in production.

Significant upside in unit redevelopment with horizontal production wells and miscible flooding

Third-party reserves auditor forecast gross production rate plateau of c.3,500 bbl/d to 4,000 bbl/d under the 2P reserves case starting in 2026. Additional production increases from a miscible flood project would be in addition to this.

Follow link - https://www.canoverseas.com/usa/

And for those new investors that don't know about POL 266 Nigeria this is still floating around in the background and could surface anytime - ideally the company should be updating the market with some information on this and the intentions moving forward.

Share in OPL 226
Pending confirmation of the extension of the exploration period under the OPL 226 production sharing contract (“PSC”) by the appropriate Nigerian governmental bodies, ShoreCan will hold a 10% carried interest in OPL 226 that covers 1,530 square kilometers.
ShoreCan owns 80% of the share capital of Essar Exploration and Production Limited (Nigeria) – (“Essar Nigeria”). Essar Nigeria’s sole asset is a 100% interest and operatorship of OPL 226 that is located about 50 kilometres offshore in the central area of the Niger Delta. OPL 226 has an area of 1530 km2 and is situated in water depths ranging from 40 to 80 meters. It offers oil appraisal and development opportunities having near term oil production potential and significant exploration upside.
Historically, five wells have been drilled, with the first oil discovery on the Block made in 2001 in the fifth well (Noa-1) after earlier drilling encountered predominantly gas-bearing sands. ShoreCan, in the last year, has completed additional seismic processing to the most recent 568 km2 3D seismic survey acquired by Essar Nigeria in 2012. The advanced seismic processing techniques, applied to this data set by ShoreCan, were successfully completed to better differentiate oil-bearing sands from gas and water-bearing sands.
OPL 226 has a best estimate of 2C contingent resources of 16 million bbls (gross) and unrisked prospective resour