Member Info for Charlie1984

TR-1 sell down / percentage reduction due to £14m placing
More so the latest £14m, they sold down 400m ish the day before the additional placing was announced.
Where they approached first?
Did they know they were going to see some dilution with the £14m placing?
The price they paid was a lot cheaper than what they sold down for, thinking it might have been a calculated move to sell a chunk at a profit to reduce the cost of what they paid for their holding once the additional 4 billion shares where admitted.
If they wanted out surely they would have sold everything, don’t think that’s the case.
More miffed going from 10 to 14 billion shares in issue as this would have meant a 35 % loss on SP against future MC rise.
Investment companies work on profit risk v reward looks like they are just balancing the books for that risk.

To me looks like a mathematical calculation to put them back in a similar position.
That and they are a bit miffed, however, at least we know who was selling down behind the scenes.

Should move well from here three shake blue finish

I personally bought in at 0.8p then my first million for £35k ish 3.52p bought more at 2.2, 1.8, 1.2 0.8 all the way down see when you star high you and quickly see six figure 4 figures.

The advantage most have now is with the news that is due it’s impossible for you to buy and not make money!

I believed in the assets 8 years ago, that hasn’t changed what has changed is the positioning in the life cycle with EPO licensing, RHA production and takeoff partner close. Even Circum if a few more years down the line, I dont think many appreciate the position and opertunity that is on the cards.

Some LTH have averaged down considerably in to the 100s million, you have JG holding a phenomenal holding.

This will move fast if you have done your research you will know free float is only 30-35% of all shares in issue maybe lower.

We churned 4.6 billion the other day.

If that doesn’t show you something then nothing will.

Good luck all

Tuesday or Wednesday - RNS IMO

I don’t think the market clearly understands the value Atomic is away to add here folks.

We could also be in the process behind the scenes of purchasing the Chinese holding (as the have to sell).

It’s almost like the market believes it’s to good to be true and will not believe it until it sees the RNS.

This for me should be in that 0.6-1p trading range.

Numerous RNS now specifically saying Atomic deal to be closed out 15 March 2.5 trading days left.

Hoping the Atomic completion RNS also has a breakdown of expected extraction and estimated monthly revenue.
It should be feeding the market the info it needs.

If Art doesn’t want speculation and reading g between the lines “the RNS needs to spell it out”

Absolutely mind boggling that the figures calculated could be disclosed officially to the market in 3/4 days.

We haven’t risen as expected in anticipation so all I can say is hold on to your hats GLA

Dough you have a $120 annual income what PO ratio will be used 5 or 10 given the 40 year life of the reservoir?
120 x 5 = $600m or £432m MC
120 x 10 = $1200 or £864m MC

What’s you calculation for MC based on you figures

LSE have added these additional shares MC of now £42m.
However, LSE it is 14,032,246,472

NOT - 17,032,246,472 that you have stated

If we ramp up production dramatically from the 1st April within two full months we should have a better idea from the company of what we are dealing with.

Just looking at a few ways that price can be calculated, very interesting stuff:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/11/common-multiples-used-in-oil-and-gas-valuation.asp

Given that production is increasing and the company will be using a increasing curve the figures could when calculated be very, very flavoursome.

We have proven reserves and also unproven within claims.

Hoping that Art and the field engineers we be able to update the market with some re shuffled and calculated figures based on milestones, increased production using miscible flooding, oil price and targets!

I believe realistically if we focus on 1.2-1.9p on completion we will not be disappointed. Once the company gets things ramped up and can deliver figure I think it mentions 2 months of production for one of the calculations things will be a lot clearer - 3 trading day till blast off GLA

Calculations

Atomic Deal worth $185m in October WTI at the time was $35 per barrel

At time of calculation yesterday WTI was $66.09

It was assumed for easy maths due to continued rise and being $3.91 away from $70 we would calculate that as a possible figure for start up.

$35 to $70 is 100%

$185m NPV +100% is $370m

$370m @ today’s exchange was £267m

£33m MC + £13m shares to add to MC = £46m MC

£267m divided into £46m MC = x5.8 or 580%

Current SP 0.34 x 5.8 = 1.97p (I used £50m MC earlier which made it 1.8p)

Or am I missing something?

If I have the $35 wrong and it’s $39 per barrel
And you use $66 current

$185 / 35 = SUM x 66 = $313

At today’s exchange $313 = £225

£225 / £46m = x4.89 or 489%

Current SP 0.34 x 4.89 = 1.66p

If I use £50m MC rather than £46m

Current SP 0.34 x 4.5 = 1.53p

It’s also worth noting that the market will us a PO ratio and annual revenue this could make the SP a lot lot higher these SP on NPV are minimum guides.

Is this our background seller / shorter closing their position?
If it is expect this to move on love volumes as they should be finished selling.
Today’s drop could have helped them close ?

Thoughts ?

Please reference previous calculation posts by clicking on my posting history.

Fag packet calculations

£50m MC
£13m Cash
$20m back up loan facility

14 billion shares still cheap for a Oil play

NPV $370m
NPV £266 on today’s exchange
£266 / £50m MC = 5.33 x
5.33 x 0.34 = 1.8p

This doesn’t include the £13m cash in the bank or purchasing additional Chinese holding which as per my previous post could be what the £13m is for.

+ Ramping up production

+ Nigerian licensing

Fuuuuuuuking Dilution lol what you guys smoking ???

VALUE ADDED BOYS & GIRLS.

Quick question if your locked in where is your break even and will you sellout at that point or hold?

To be fair we need to address this point “value added”

The SP climbed last year on anticipation of Nigerian Licensing etc to 0.53

The SP retraced to 0.18-0.2 and was sat in a low range awaiting licensing news.

Atomic was announced and we started to climb.

Regardless of shares in issue the MC has also climbed and with it the SP. Therefore the dilution has added value to the SP and in turn value to your investment.

Without the dilution there would be no atomic and you would be sat waiting for licensing RNS and still in that 0.15-0.2 range maybe lower, would you not?

Given that the NPV of Atomic has doubled since its interception the additional dilution hasn’t drastically dropped the SP but increased it to a range higher than without the Atomic deal?

When they say cannt see the wood for the trees, this is a perfect example.

If your locked in and that’s the only reason you hold has the Atomic deal reduced your investment since it was it announced - NO !

Has the Atomic deal increased the value of your investment - YES !

So the dilution for Atomic has added shareholder value - YES !

Struggling to see why some are still talking about dilution as a negative?

The dilution has bought something that we didn’t own, that something is perfectly positioned in its life cycle to deliver fantastic value.

If you can't see that then you shouldn’t be investing!!!

Excellent post Rolling.

What you post does is highlight the extremely positive fact that ii or iis have thrown £14m into this at short notice.
Those values aren’t thrown around lightly so the figures must stack up.
To many PIs on this board don’t like dilution and in simple truth without it we wouldn’t be in the position we are, in fact we would have seen dilution to keep the lights on and pay the bills why wait for Nigerian Play. Then still needed to dilute to fund our share at rock bottom prices if we made it that far.
NPV of Atomic $370-400m without extras, increasing asset holding, increasing oil price, strengthening $ and global market increase and demand.

Most that post there BS here couldn’t run a raffle let alone and multi million pound oil company.

The Atomic opportunity was there, it was taken and on Monday will be executed.
Would we be in the same position if this deal was being made now rather than back in October 2020 - NO!

Need to ask yourself a question what are you still doing here if you dont believe in Arthur, Atomic or happy with the dilution to purchase it.
You must see some value or you would have sold out, yet your negativity is unbelievable for PIs that claim to be invested.
Laughable you wouldn’t thing this deal will conclude in 3/4 trading days - rant over !!

- Be nice to see a TR-1 holdings RNS from another ii that will really make things interesting say Thursday or Friday this week.
- Atomic Deal RNS Tuesday/Wednesday (after completing Monday 15th)
- Friday 19th of next week or the following Monday 22nd buyout of Chinese stake.
- that takes us to within a week ish of ramping up considerably at Atomic on the 1st April

That my predicted road map of how I see things going, SP still crazy cheap - blue finish but will be blue out of hrs due to large delayed trades opening up tomorrow.

I think the market is in a bit of a pickle.

Last night and today we seen the £13m or $18m raised but PIs and MM I sure what it’s for?

30 December @ 0.2p raised £6m for The net proceeds from the Placing will be used for the acquisition of Atomic Oil and Gas LLC announced by the Company on December 16, 2020, other expenditures related to the Atomic acquisition, and for general corporate purposes.

Additional £3m was raised as per RNS 8th Jan 2021 COPL has closed a follow-on non-brokered private placement to raise additional gross proceeds of £3,000,000 (the "Subsequent Fundraise") subsequent to the £6,000,000 placing announced by the Company on December 30, 2020.

21 January - The Facility has a base size of $45 million, with an additional, or "accordion", $20 million to fund future development at the sole discretion of the lender.

· The terms of the Facility are market competitive.

The process from this latest placing strengthen the balance sheet.

Now this last bit is interesting as the original placing proved to the finance company that COPL could generate cash.
We know there is and additional credit facility of $20m my theory is the $13m is for both working capital and cash finance for acquiring the additional stake from the Chinese. This would have been part of the terms and conditions similar to those in the first instance.
Now given £13m / would be roughly £6.5m which is there or there about a a figure we put down for atomic finance, maybe a similar figure was required for the additional finance?

This would then leave £6/7m working capital till the funds are rolling in what terms on a balance sheet to get paid 30, 60 or 90 days. Just a thought this would allow for £2m a month for 3 months for gas etc for miscible flooding.

We are completing early next week and ramping up production by 1st April.

Logically would you raise all this capital to ramp up production if the Chinese still had a position, they have no money and need to sell.

Deal done next week

RNS stating we have acquired the partners shares

RNS contact in place for gas etc

Ramp up production 1st April

You don’t do all this is your not going to be acquiring everything in its entirety

ii may well have taken up those shares we will not know till we see an RNS

Tree shake

Then up we go, not sure how ma y RNS you need stating the 15th March - game on GLA

£50m MC ii radars,

4 trading days left,

atomic completes 15 March,

dramatically increase production with miscible folding 2 weeks later 1 April

Rising oil price

Cash going to be flying in finance could be paid of in no time at this rate.

ii to take positions

Very interesting times

I am happy with that: looks like they are wanting to ramp straight up and capitalise on the increasing WTI price.
They will completing the Atomic Deal on the 15th then a dramatic increase on 1st April some two weeks later.
Arther has previously mentioned he believes from viewing the simulator that that better than x3 production will be achieved from miscible flooding looks like we will be hitting the ground running.

Again we are on track to complete the 15th March - no issues to note.

capital to operate Atomic and its assets according to its forward development plan. These include, commencing on April 1st, a dramatic increase in injected gas volumes (methane and LPG) at the Atomic operated Barron Flats Unit. The institutional investors in this placing recognize the quality of the assets we will acquire under the Atomic acquisition and their value to the Company in this time of strengthening global oil prices."

Ryan Gaffney, CFO, added: "The funds from this placing will strengthen COPL's balance sheet post completion of Atomic. This is the prudent thing to do at this time as it gives confidence to the Company's debt provider, the oil field service providers, suppliers of natural gas and natural gas liquids for Atomic's Barron Flats miscible flood."

Expecting and expansion on today’s RNS explaining a little more an in some more detail.

Just to draw your attention to the CEO roles.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/careers/jobs/what-is-a-ceo-chief-executive-officer/

As much as what a lot cannt see it Arthur is building a company for the benefit of all. He is acting in our interests. I am sure all will be reveiled shortly. What we don’t need if more speculation.

Can he/she share this email ?