Member Info for cefncribwr

That's a good return! My experience in investing has shown that I can't beat the trackers, so I invest now in trackers and some managed funds also. I got the alarm bells when friends who had financial advisers spoke of annualised returns of about 8pc over the last 20 years......with compounding, they've done seriously better than almost all amateur share pickers I'd say.

It's been a good year for investing, with the S and P 500 and FTSE both up 15 pc or more with income added and foreign markets up much more. The only way you could have lost money is by dabbling with individual shares like Diageo. Stock picking is surely a mug's game unless it's for fun using up to 10pc of your portfolio.

BATS is an example of a tobacco stock that's done well this year, despite declining demand for tobacco. But it's priced as a high income stock, yielding 6.33% - contrasting with Diageo's 4.33% at present. Now what if the market starts valuing Diageo as an ex growth dividend play? If the yield rises to, say, 6.33%, isn't there a lot further to fall here? I'm just urging caution as an interested bystander, as I no longer buy individual stocks.

It's anything but a party, and it's fallen quite a bit even since your earlier post. Keep well away and stick to managed funds or ETFs is surely the way to go? Too many negatives about this stock anyway. For all the reasons already given elsewhere, we are on the whole drinking less alcohol, just like we are all smoking less tobacco......which is a good thing.

The Sand P 500 is up about 14 pc this year but this fund is only up 5 pc. It's a lesson learned for me - I need to hedge my funds against currency changes next time!

I'd personally steer away from this or indeed any individual share and stick to passive funds, as individual shares buying is so risky. I recall Hargreaves Lansdowne shares plummeting relentlessly over a lengthy period. They only settled once the yield had reached 6pc. If Diageo were to do likewise, the floor is a long way away - about 1280p by my rough calculations. I'm not saying this will happen, but ask yourself whether you should be risking money on a single share like this ?

Fair point, but it seems that most investments - including mine as it happens, having regard to the advice of none other than Warren Buffet - are increasingly going to passive rather than active investment. As a result, many good value shares are being overlooked because of indiscriminate buying and selling and will probably continue to be overlooked. Gamma shares could rise if there were big inflows into passive FTSE 250 ETFs, but the reality is that we have seen outflows, which negatively affects all constituents.

Value investing is out of fashion, replaced by mindless passive investment strategies such as ETFs. That's the sorry reality.

If you're puzzled as to why there are so many anomalies in UK stock market pricing, (eg Gamma?), there's an article in the FT about the inelastic markets theory, which is gaining ground. Basically, the stock market keeps marching higher, almost impervious to bad news: the gush of money into cheap, mindless passive investment strategies such as ETFs, especially those investing in fashionable markets such as the S and P 500. The efficient markets theory is being increasingly doubted, so that for example anomalies regarding pricing are no longer necessarily corrected.

Your 'who knows?' question is one I've asked myself regularly about individual shares over the years. I eventually concluded that the ordinary shareholder never does, which is why I am now solely invested in ETFs and cash......and can sleep at night. If Warren Buffet thinks that ETFs are the best investment tools, that's good enough for me.

I suspect this share previously had a bloated price due to its IHT benefits and that reality has set in since those benefits have disappeared. Most AIM funds seemed to have it as a major holding but of course they had to sell all of their holdings. The FTSE 250 has been a poor performer for years, and I suspect that the steady outflow of funds from that index is now having a negative effect too. Perfect storm, really.

The share buybacks seem to have stabilised the share price. However, when they end, I suspect the downward trajectory will resume. Leaving AIM could add to the misery due to forced selling by AIM funds. I note also that joining the main market hasn't done any favours for other ex AIM companies such as Ceres Power and Gamma Communications.

The more I look at shares, the more I'm reminded of Warren Buffet saying that he would advise investors simply to buy market trackers. I've sold almost all my shares now and have 90pc in trackers or investment trusts, mainly in the US and established markets. After years of investment, all my trackers are up but many of my shares, especially AIM ones, are down. That's taught me a lesson. I can at least now sleep at night without seeing sudden falls in individual shares caused by shorting, BoD incompetence etc. Good luck all, but I've come to the view that trading individual shares is a mug's game. You may disagree but I'm posting this to give people food for thought.

It's because the market isn't expecting the bid to go ahead.

Nice to see some upward momentum for a change. Maybe something is afoot? One can only hope.

Funds seem to be shunning AIM, meaning that there just aren't the buyers out there that there used to be, even where there are glaring bargains. Recently, Henderson Opportunities (HOT) said its allocation into the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) has remained a “detractor” from the trust’s performance, AIM having apparently underperformed the FTSE All Share Index over the previous 3 year period by a staggering 55 per cent.

Sorry, the discount is far too big to give any confidence that the takeover is a done deal.

If the market was confident that the bid would go through, the market price would surely be much closer to 125 p. The discount seem

I think you're saying that the market does not expect the bid to proceed, and I'm going inclined to agree with that.

The market clearly has some doubts as to whether the takeover will actually materialise. The share price is down about 10% since the aftermath of the disclosure of the two bids. There is share buy-back going on, and one of the bidders is still apparently in talks about their 125p a share bid. It's a bit surprising therefore that the that the current price is not nearer the bid price.