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I was thinking along the same lines of available FAP getting saturated before, but then as Ophidian asserted recently (more knowledgeable than me and it seems logical), since the FAP(a) just acts as the catalyst to cleave the AVA6000 linker, the same FAP(a) can continue to cleave more of the drug. I would speculate that the caveat might be if the doxorubicin goes on to kill the cells expressing the FAP, maybe it’s not available anymore. Perhaps the time gap between doses allows the space in and around the tumour to “refresh” in some way (flush chemicals, clear dead cells?) so it is more receptive for the next dose?
https://twitter.com/ophidian18/status/1541778379334107136?s=21&t=kpygFRCd5QjdXZlQamBxww
You also raise the issue of why we don’t aggressively go to many multiple of the standard dose. I’m thinking eg 6x the standard dose applied in mouse models. The pharmacokinetic dynamics would be different of course. But even so, that amount produced comparable cardio-toxicity to the standard dox dose in mice. So would be inappropriate to mimic that level if dosing humans. They might be getting benefit at much lower dosing, while better reducing and mitigating systemic exposure.
“Also, assuming things progress as hoped, could a test to determine potential FAP activity within a tumour play a part in initial dose selection?”
Apparently, great minds think alike, because in the AGM on the timeline slide, Avacta show they are planning PET scans (radioactive tracer molecules which can be used with an appropriate binder to visually map - and potentially quantify? - FAP locations in the body) to coincide with phase Ib. Again, more good discussion on this subject from Ophidian and others:
https://twitter.com/ophidian18/status/1541364231119032322?s=21&t=kpygFRCd5QjdXZlQamBxww
This suggests they expect the Phase Ia data readout to be complete, with time to prepare by then.
But what exactly will their “research day” be and who will it be for? Investors? Potential companies that may want to buy/license the platform? I’m assuming the latter.
Hmmm… A £500k buy is significant enough that I dare say the buyer could spare a few additional bob to pay some disingenuous trolls to come and tickle the market bush for a couple days until enough shares fall out at a lower price. They’ll vanish when the perpetrators are done with their attempted manipulation, I’m sure.
Good posts, thanks.
To add to the chance of success discussion, let’s not forget that the chance of passing phase I is much higher than the eventual probability of getting the drug to market. We could even argue that the chance of passing phase Ia is >90% if not close to 100%, given that there is at least one dosing level proven to be safe enough to carry through to phase Ib.
And we don’t need the drug to get to market (although ultimately that will be awesome if it works well) to make a decent return. We just need results that are good enough to stoke a bidding war. The chance of that happening is somewhere higher than the odds of it ultimately reaching the market and lower than the odds of advancing to phase Ib.
In short, there is no necessary event coming up with a low chance of success.
Thanks for sharing and good spot.
Yes Timster, that is pretty much exactly the poster we have seen and which AS presented to investors. The text runs through all the panels of the poster.
This is a poster abstract, so goes into the academic literature as just a record of the abstract, without an attached article. It is not peer-reviewed like a full journal article. But I dare say Avacta will have applied a lot of internal assurance on the poster before letting it out into the world.
I won’t be there, but just a thought - watch out for the train strikes if you’re coming in from outside London.
Interesting question though.
I can’t remember who it was before suggested that even if it seems to be working very well in these first two cohorts, there is a good case for escalating anyway, as you would buy yourself more optionality on dosing regimens for Phase 1b and future trials if you take the dose escalation higher now.
And if you don’t do it now, you miss the chance to do it without planning another trial. So they’d have to be REALLY confident that it wouldn’t be necessary.
Can’t help but feel the UK is the most fragile of glass houses right now, from which to be throwing stones at any other country’s government.
For all their egregious human rights abuses, at least the CCP can plan long-term and seem more bent on an economic rather than military flavour of global domination.
I don’t know if we don’t hear about the covid situation in China because covid news is now being actively suppressed, or the media outlets simply judge that people don’t want to hear it anymore. Anyway, I guess this is a bigger story for supply chain issues and pressure on costs of living than an LFT opportunity. But you never know.
Is it likely Takeda have that? If they are doing due diligence with a view to a deal, would they get access to such data under CA?
I have been wondering to what extent if any they could have been working together on AvA3996, without having to release news to market.
I reckon so. Waiting until phase 1a data is out, hopefully proving the platform, would give Avacta a stronger position and more commercial options.
For example, if a potential takeover offer were to come in after AVA6000 data, or bidding war to emerge, they would be able to command a higher price without having signed rights to AVA3996 away already.
From Takeda’s perspective, they would get to see PK data from AVA6000 (and potentially more preclinical data from AVA3996) that should further derisk the opportunity, before committing to an expensive licensing arrangement.
ÂŁ180k exposure is a lot of risk to take on for a ÂŁ3750 profit though. You know, the steaks are too high.
Try that too much and sooner or later AIM will gleefully deliver you a swift kick in the tenderloin.
Hi Chengdo! Good decision and probably decent timing (notwithstanding the 40p opportunity). Good to see you back on here.
I’m here for the constructive chat. And a bit of nonsense.
Takeda (or some other) licensing deal becoming official and receiving a big up-front fee, or else a buy-out, are now the key things for me to see this year, hence the interest with which I see them continually referring to AVA3996 and Takeda in the same sentence.
I think we know enough now to say AVA6000 is on course to pass Phase 1a with probably some pretty awesome data. Then we need something to happen commercially to bring in funds up-front, probably before year-end. The board knows it, and I think it’s why they don’t want to let dose escalation slip beyond mid-Q3. With the right data, something should happen. But it’s not a given until we see it.
Quick check on Trading View (free app, go to chart view and plot 50/200 day moving averages) suggests we’ll be hitting it today, failing some sort of major drop into the close. Famous last words. ;)
Hi Itacon, are you being ironic after calling others out for baseless ramping? If not, please do tell more, or else Hitchens’ Razor might apply!
It’s a good point Hep. If we see nothing in the next few days then I guess we assume the latter. They set a precedent with 1st Dec, 1st Mar, but then it was 1st March when they said “Mobile Streams plc is delighted to announce its monthly revenue now exceeds $150,000 per month across all channels. This is an increase of 87.5% in monthly revenue since the Company's update on 1 December 2021. Whilst the Company intends to report revenue figures on a quarterly basis going forward, it is pleased to note the growth in revenues at this stage.”.
In the absence of revenue figures, some news update would be nice, but I trust the company (with its limited number of employees) is just getting on with real work and will ultimately let results do the talking, rather than trying to impress the market when they have no need for new funds in the foreseeable future.
Wow, akka, it seems your contribution here has not once included a shred of useful information, just negative abuse to divert conversation away from useful subjects. In the bin you go.
Looking forward to the trading update, hopefully tomorrow. Honestly the range of possible outcomes to my mind is huge, so it’ll be nice to see something real.
I’m expecting LiveScores to be the main source of organic growth, but then there is Streams providing a solid backbone (is a $10k/month new contract still material enough to bother telling the market, or could there be unannounced new signings here too?), and IGS more recently is a big unknown in terms of when the guaranteed revenue is received. Maybe a smidgeon of NFT income? But from the lack of detail I don’t get the impression that revenue stream is mature yet.
Enjoy the short working week all! Here’s hoping for a positive end to it tomorrow.
From the Therapeutics section of the annual report:
“Good progress is being made in the in-house Affimer® and TMAC® programmes. These pre- clinical programmes, along with the commercial collaborations, are the focus of in-house research activities and the Company plans to provide a full technical update to shareholders during 2022 when sufficient pre-clinical data has been gathered so that the development path and associated risks can described in detail.”
Does that mean AVA3996 is seen as a commercial collaboration? Or the preclinical research is mostly complete already?
Probably reading too much into it. But exciting preclinical data yet to be seen, and progressing to clinic next year sounds good. Wouldn’t be surprised if Takeda are just waiting on a read-out from AVA6000 before signing a license arrangement, or else Avacta are keeping their commercial options open until that point.
Speaking of voids to fill…
Anyone else notice the smiley doctor on the report cover is a gynaecologist? They could have done with a photoshop job on the name badge!
Otherwise, all looks good to me. Reiteration of bullishness and timelines. I would say “roll on Q3”, but there’s a summer to be enjoyed in the interim. :)
MrR and BITL - I think you need to update your research about the commercial model. Yes Avacta did once say their plan was to license out AVA6000 in return for a royalty payment, but recently they’ve said the plan is to license out other drugs in the pipeline (commonly assumed to initially mean AVA3996 to Takeda, but of course nothing’s sure until it happens) and retain 100% control of AVA6000. That is what any acquirer would be getting. This notional 10-15% royalty as regards AVA6000 is not relevant anymore.
That said, they would need more capital to take it past phase 1b alone. There is a good chance that will come from licensing, or that the problem will be taken off their hands, but I’d forgive anyone for cautiously factoring in potential dilution down the road, albeit at a higher price than today, if it works.