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Exactly, well put PL. I’m just interested to see how that unfolds, and curious what we’re looking for now as our positive indicators that world domination is on track. Hopefully there’ll be another AS interview in the next couple of weeks.
Joined you with a cheeky top up on Abdx, pixie. Market being very slow to join those dots today.
And a merry Christmas to you too, BusyBuilder!
I don’t believe you are a holder. Clearly you are just attempting to dampen sentiment.
In the bin.
Wongawonga great point. There is a good chance it will lead to major individual orders that are announced to market.
I was imagining HUA leading to smaller individual sales, but to millions of cystomers. As such the updates would be retrospective trading updates after an interval of sales.
They’re probably all off for Christmas.
Wasn’t Saturn Pass launching 4th Jan? Maybe something around that.
But I doubt we’ll see much marketing in the UK until we get the (re)approval to sell here. Will be interesting to hear from anyone in the EU, esp Spain, over the next few weeks, as to what they are seeing.
Merry early Christmas everyone! Great news today, really put a smile on my face.
So for the LFT this is the RNS we’ve been awaiting for so long. What next then?
In last year’s exciting phases, every major development milestone was swiftly followed by further announcements triggered by that milestone.
I think we could be in for the same here. Some or all of the following to come, in no particular order:
- ABDX TT completed and first order confirmed
- Asia-Pacific regulatory approvals
- US FDA approval?
- Further manufactufees signed up? (APAC)
- Medusa19 marketing visibly kicking in (although given lack of CTDA, maybe not yet in the UK).
- UK CTDA approval
What do other people reckon is coming next?
They have to notify the regulators by 15:30 the day after their short position crosses a notifiable threshold, so it wouldn’t show yet.
Would be hilarious if they are doubling down trying to suppress the rise.
To several folks complaining here and on Twitter at the UK gov for not granting HUA, you should know that HUA is in the hands of an EU notified body, almost certainly in Spain. The UK government is not holding us up on this.
The UKHSA/DHSC wait is for them to re-allow the test to be sold for professional use in the Uk, after new legislation came into force on Nov 1st supposedly to control the “quality” of product that could be sold into the UK market. Which is a noble-sounding front for gatekeeping access to the UK market for vested commercial interests. Our government can do this sort of thing because now we have left the EU they are free to control the market as they wish. Did we ever need to wonder what the Tories would do with more regulatory freedom?
It is like screwing over your own arms industry in the midst of an all-out war, for the most belligerently myopic personal gain. These execrable cretins can’t see past the dollar bill in front of their eyeballs.
Was my understanding too that 1st Dec RNS gave Nov revs from Oct transactions.
However, the user numbers were current, and therefore something of a leading indicator for the revenues. Obviously the average monthly revenue per user varies from market to market, but by my reckoning it was c.16000 average monthly users in October (accounting for c.$30-37k of the revenues (the rest being from Mobile Streams).
Then at 1st Dec we’re on 70k users, the bulk of the add likely being in Brazil, on affiliate revenue share terms. No doubt in my mind that we’ll smash through $100k rev in December.
Indeed, many would argue at this stage that the LFT as a whole is a red herring!
We can make new Affimers quickly, sure, but I don’t fancy going through the timeline to clinical validation and approvals again, before getting HUA. In the long term once we have established HUA-approved tests doing well, it’s less of an issue waiting to release improved iterations of them, where necessary.
I like that, PAH00, “Affimers - the micro-piranhas of biotech”. I was wondering the same about specificity and size of the binding sites. It must be far more complex than that, but it is surely a factor.
Anyway, yes we have the data, but just saying it’s big news in particular for a spike test (more important for our S test than ODX’s update on their N test), and it doesn’t automatically read across to Vatic or other spike tests.
Eg over on Twitter, generally well-informed researcher HardyAIM announced he sold out of his Avacta position recently, citing his main reason as uncertainty about the LFT picking up omicron due to the spike mutations. Now that doubt can be put to bed. There are smart people making decisions on these details.
This is more important news for us than for N-protein tests, because the sheer quantity of mutations on the omicron spike had created some doubt as to whether spike tests like AffiDx could detect it.
But it doesn’t necessarily read across to other spike tests. For one thing they all bind different parts. And recall, as I think Ophidian said, the Affimer is kind of like a mosquito bite at the binding site, whereas larger antibodies are more like a shark bite. (Although with something like a 10:1 scale, maybe it’s more like rat vs lion bite?) If the Affimer/antibody scale differential is also reflected by scale of the binding site in this way, antibodies would be more likely to be impacted by mutations due to the larger binding site.
Fair enough. Sounds like a non-event then. Not an attack angle, just wanted to understand it better.
Thanks for the replies. Maybe wiggly is onto something - if they were also working for a company that were looking to take over Avacta, would that give them a conflict of interest requiring them to resign as auditors?
Or would that be such a reason as the shareholders would need to be informed of?
Great news about omicron.
Only one thing confusing me this morning - why might KPMG resign as auditor? Normally these companies take all the work they can get.
Sometimes I wonder if the potential here is going to be honoured by the MMs only once most retail investors have gotten bored and frustrated and moved on. So, notwithstanding that I’d love you all to do well here… By all means get frustrated and move on?
Or quietly and patiently wait. AVA6000 won’t move any faster just because we want news. The LFT HUA isn’t going to arrive any faster because the rumour cycle has kicked in again.
I really want to take the p but there are enough people being ****s on the internet already. Home Use Authorisation (for the LFTs, from an EU notified body), and hell yes! It will expand the market for the LFT considerably, and kick our partners, Medusa19’s, sales machine into overdrive (and additional manufacturing capacity, from whichever source).
Feels like the pandemic has dragged on forever, but this exaggeration strongly suggests you are trying to push a negative agenda (for now), wyn. If you want to present yourself as balanced, at least get the simple things right.
I think the first mass sales of LFTs (outside China) were around or less than 1.5 years ago. Market expected to persist 5-10 years or more.
Muck, I’m guessing they’re saying that rather than bind to a random part of the spike protein, their test’s binders mimic the human cell ACE-2 receptors that the virus uses for entry. Since it needs to maintain this function to replicate (or else mutate into something completely different), it will continue to bind to the test.
But I don’t buy their claim that this means the test will get more accurate over time. The virus evolution is not driven solely by finding more efficient ways to enter the cell. Bigger drivers for it might be more efficient transmission from person to person, as well as vaccine escape and resistance to neutralising antibody therapies, and these could include compromises on other functions.
Worth looking at this again, given the negativity around warrants elsewhere. Per RNS of 30th November:
“[In November] A total of 36,666,666 warrants exercisable at 0.2p per share, and 15,000,000 warrants exercisable at 0.5p, have been exercised.”
Per MilkMonsta above:
“ warrants outstanding
0.2p Expiry by end April 2022 37,000,000
0.5p Expiry 26th March 2022 828,000,000”
So at this run rate there would be about a month of 0.2p warrants to work through. Some of whom may want to take profit, some of whom may want to hold. A possible short term drag, but I suspect the current SP weakness is mostly in line with the rest of the market at the moment, and nothing specific to MOS.
By the end of that month, there will be more news on revenue growth. Assuming all continues to go well with the business as we expect, then we are onto the 0.5p warrants. These are no threat to the share price until it goes above 0.5p, but could offer some resistance around that price in Q1 2022 if some of the holders are looking to flip them for a quick profit. But as I see it, at the current rate of growth, by the time the warrants expire, MOS should be turning a tidy profit. Many of the warrant holders may choose to exercise and hold. And if they want to exercise and flip, there will likely be a lot of demand from other buyers at 0.5p.
So… I reckon there’s less than a month left of this buying opportunity to play out, and more news on new territories or indicative Brazil numbers could land at any time and end that opportunity. And let’s not forget the warrants have provided and will continue to provide MOS with working capital top ups to take them comfortably through the transition back to profit.