RE: RE: More RNS updates to come13 Feb 2022 13:53
Uk Gov
Latest
This note sets out a range of scenarios to illustrate possible courses of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic for the UK.
All assume that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate for the foreseeable future and that variants will emerge.
These are scenarios that illustrate a range of possible futures but are not the only plausible courses that the
pandemic could take. Shifts from one scenario to another over time are also possible. An outcome that lies
outside the range covered by the four scenarios –better than the reasonable best-case scenario or worse than
the reasonable worst-case scenario – cannot be ruled out.
In each scenario, it is assumed that a relatively stable, repeating pattern is reached over time (2-10 years) but
it is likely that the transition to this will be highly dynamic and unpredictable. It may not be possible to know
with confidence from what happens in the next 12-18 months which long-term pattern will emerge.
Interaction with other viruses
The degree of seasonality of infection (and how quickly this emerges) is also important, as is the interaction of
SARS-CoV-2 with other respiratory viruses such as influenza and RSV. Where influenza and SARS-CoV-2 waves
co-occur, this would be expected to lead to a shorter, higher peak of total respiratory infections. If sequential,
the health system will face a longer, drawn-out winter peak. Higher rates of infection from one virus could
supress those from another leading to sequential infection patterns. Suppression of a virus in one year could
then lead to loss of immunity in the population, increasing the risk of a severe wave the following year.
It is likely that any significant new variant
will spread and reach a peak of infections more quickly than a new vaccine can be produced, tested and
distributed at scale. Protective behaviours are also expected to continue to play an important role in reducing
transmission but cannot be reliably predicted for future wave.
Face masks /Filters a massive market in the future
# protective behaviours ...
Hot of the press !!
Castle
Sign In
Follow the stocks
