Member Info for carlotowl

The worlds biggest consumer of coal, China has announced they will be carbon neutral by 2060. They won't achieve that by burning coal and they won't want to just decommission their coal power plants as it costs too much and they still need the power. South Korean finance company already providing SAE with an 'in' in Asia. I could see SAE inking numerous global agreements over the coming years to convert power plants or provide feedstock. Either way thr market is immense and if proved at Uskmouth are the only player in that market and would be on track to dominate it.

I think they understand that getting this over the line and being able to keep all the profit means that they have a large, sustainable revenue platform for years to come which will allow them finance other projects without the need to raise through placings or debt. It is what will propel their business model forward by a considerable amount because of that guaranteed capital going forward. It opens up the possibilities of being able to close out numerous smaller projects quickly, generating more income and eventually projects like Deeside which is of a similar magnitude to Billingham and would generate considerable income. As I've said before, it's a snowball effect and. Billingham is crucial to giving the market confidence in their ability to close out a big project.

The RNS makes it sound like the only reason it is being extended is to iron out the buyout of the SPV prior to financial close. As if it's all ready to go but Eqtec wants 100% of the profits gained from the project so won't close until they have agreed with Scott Bros. Hmm.

To my mind if it wasn't a goer they'd know by now and would have announced the extension. The last 2 extensions have been announced weeks ahead of the deadline date because they knew it wouldn't be closed. If it gets extended last minute I will probably de risk slightly but still expect the SP to move up significantly over the LT. A firm hold for now and if Billingham lands then hold on to your hats!

I've got an idea Wiggly and AW. Why don't you just sell your holdings?

He then corrected himself and said "some way off." But prior to both those statements he said that they were "on the brink" with LFT pregnancy style tests. Come on, don't misrepresent his words to suit your agenda.

We're close, no matter what the pessimists say. Someone knows something.

It wouldn't surprise me if they add it as a function to the test and trace app because that is also due soon. Self reporting isn't ideal and some people just won't do it. But most people who know they're infected will at least self isolate. I think govt will take the risk and put some of the responsibility on the public like they have with masks and social distancing in general. If the test works as advertised govt will buy as many as they can make initially then once production is ramped to a certain level the tests will be sold direct to the consumer through Medusa 19. There will almost certainly be a new manufacturing partner or 2 in the coming weeks (if it works), then the sky's the limit. Any vaccine won't make a dent in testing needs for at least a year but by then we'll hopefully have tons of cash in the bank and a successful cancer therapy. It's all good people, chill.

I've topped up with 10k new shares on the US govt buying up all Abbott's tests. The market is massive and even with competitors eating some of the market share Avacta still stands to benefit hugely (if the test works and they don't delay too much).

UK government policy is to test 4 million people a day by the NY. PCR testing currently accounts for approx 150k tests a day and require a massive organised operation including healthcare professionals and labs. Its reasonable to assume they couldn't scale up to more than a million tests a day for PCR. That leaves 3 million tests a day which will likely be completed using LFT anti gen tests. Even assuming that other LFT anti gen test providers take up 2 of that remaining 3 million a day, that leaves Avacta providing 1 million tests a day. BBI have said that they will be able to produce 'millions' of a tests a month at the start, which suggests capacity of less than 10 million a month to begin with, but if the test works then additional manufacturers will be found to scale up by NY. All in all it's reasonable to assume that UK govt alone will be buying 30 million tests a month from Avacta come the NY. Avacta quoted a retail price of $30 a few months back, but even assuming a lower price it's also reasonable to assume a profit per unit of $2-4. That's $60 million profit a month and $720 million profit a year. And these are low estimates, because if the test works as advertised and they can get additional manufacturers on board to produce say, 100 million tests a month, they will all sell and it will make them a $200 million a month and $2.4 billion over 12 months. I think on announcement the test works as advertised we will see a rise to £3. On news of orders it will hit £4 or £5. On news of a large scale up in manufacturing and pre-orders it will head up towards £10. If the cancer therapies work next year then we're looking at a SP above £10. After that the sky's the limit.

Bang on Phantom. AW, you know as well as I we do a company doesn't have to make profit equal to the value of its MCAP to justify that MCAP. Prime example at the moment - Tesla.

Looks like Palumbo has come through for us! This should be the catalyst for more contracts signed, more projects in the pipeline and a serious re rate! Slightly gutted I sold a 1/4 of my goldings last week when no news came for Greece but hey, you can't win them all.

This is an encouraging Tweet.
https://twitter.com/eqtec/status/1298249814396694529?s=19

Fair point.

Well, unless we get an intra day RNS it would appear they haven't taken the option to buy out Scott Bros SPV for Billingham. IMO that makes Billingham less likely to happen. I'll see what today brings before I jump the gun.

No need to panic. Investors reacting to the lack of news, Trump's 'new' treatment and the rumour the FDA will fastrack a vaccine which they think will render these tests not needed. Fact remains that our own government has a strong desire to see rapid testing and unless it doesn't work or there are big delays in manufacturing there will be massive demand from the UK govt alone. Hold your nerve.

Been watching this share for a while but have jumped on board this morning (albeit at the peak). Should see significant moves up over the coming months so not worried about my entry price. Todays new significantly derisks the share.

I have to admit if nothing has come by Tuesday (the deadline for purchasing the SPV owned by Scott Bros), I will be re-evaluating my holdings. Going on DP's comments and the previous RNS's deadlines, something should have been announced by Tuesday and if it isn't I don't think it bodes well.

Nope. It's Saliva Direct. Results take 2-3 hours to come back so no where near as good.

The MOU for Billingham is actually until 22nd Sept. What you're likely referring to is the option for Eqtec to buy out the SVP from Scott Bros which was stated to be 45 days from when they announced it, which is up on 24th Aug. If that date lapses with no news then it doesn't mean Billingham won't go ahead, it just means they haven't bought our Scott Bros share. But if they announce the buyout of the SPV on or before 24th Aug then it's a sure sign Billingham will almost certainly go ahead. Time will tell.