The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Same here, i have been in the same position aswell but most of the things i find online seem to be L2 on the big markets and not on AIM so finding it abit difficult to understand atm
As previously mentioned they have not sold any, its merely due to the addition/placing of the new shares that has reduced their overall percentage down a little.
The X is checked next to the box:
"An event changing the breakdown of voting rights"
Volcano - From what i see you are half correct, yes a vaccine would be a very obvious way to eradicate this. But i think you meant ' a working vaccine' because as far as i know there is no working vaccine out right now but there are working 'tests' out right now.
Again, vaccines take a hell of a long time to find out if they work long term. Sure it might pass validation because the economy is desperate but are you going to be the first one to confidently walk into a doctors office to take it, knowing its a rushed product, knowing there might be side effects? And after taking it would you still be comfortable in thinking that just because you have been vaccinated that you can get into a room with untested people and carry on life as we knew it before?
Bearing in mind the amount of pro-anti vaxxers is already on the rise in previous years and this is for an injection for the flu and MRS and things which have been confirmed to work for numerous years. Yet we still have a large group who don't believe in taking it.
I think if you are trying to ride the wave now then there were things you were expecting to hear in the presentation that you didn't get, fair enough. The overwhelming majority of this SP seems to fluctuate on the sentiment of Covid19, which may i remind that as of yesterday it hit an infection rate of 135,000 daily new infections globally which is the highest recorded number.
there are 7.5 billion people in the world, and so far i think we have tested less than 1% of the global population.
So think about this:
If we are in a packed football stadium, and 1 person has, lets just say an item which can duplicate itself as many times over as it wants once handed to a different person. There is only one detective in the stadium and his job is to manually find out who has got it and who hasnt .
How long will it take for him to search an entire stadium of people? That is what the state of testing is at the moment, and by the time he has searched 100 people, this item has already exponentially duplicated to over to 10,000 others.
Every one person tested which takes on average like 24/48 hours in a 1st world, western society. i am sure another 100 people are unknowingly getting infected during that time, nevermind the state in developing countries.
Until the rate of testing is at least at a 50% level then how can it actually be possible to wipe something out that you cannot physically see (without testing), and nevermind trying to wipe out. At 50% of global testing you are just trying to keep it under control. flattening the global 'daily infection graph' which is what most people are forgetting about.
This is a global issue, with global repercussions, and requires a global scale-up of items like this in order to return to normality.
If as predicted by numerous scientist that there will be a 2nd wave, then if the governments globally are not prepared and bearing in mind they have already defunded themselves extremely heavily already, then if there is no consumer-ready product on the market then how can they even again afford to sum up for testing for the entire nation on tests which cost possibly £100 to carry out each one from start-to-finish.
Having a £25-35 consumer ready product will ease the burden on governments as consumers who want to know to get on a plane or train for a journey may be willing to stump up the costs themselves.
Im Bullish on the presentation today but can understand why people are on the fence, the demand for this type of product is extremely required. Do AVCT have the ability to get this out and serve the world is the real question.
Hmmmmm......Not necessarily, the fall was very obviously an orchestrated fall, there was no detrimental news to our business model or the covid scene as a whole for such a big drop in SP over 3 days. Especially with the media attention around it the week leading before the fall, the fall was there to trigger stop losses and create a domino effect in order for the placing to happen.
There are multitudes of 'internals' within the AVCT bubble. Finncapp invested in PrimaryBid (who did the placing), Finncapp are also invested in AVCT, Kamani is invested in AVCT, Medusa19 (Kamani) now is linked to AVCT via another means other than as a normal investor, he is essentially a business partner which now means the flow of internal company information will be even higher as surely AVCT have to provide MedUsa19 product & regulation information for them to even have a business since their sole product (B2C Test) is provided to them via AVCT.
When first news of the initial £2m investment at 18p per share for Kamani was announced it also somehow seemed like a mates-rates deal and since then there just seems to be more and more 'matesrates' deals happening, especially with when Myles hit the nail on the head about insider trading, how could there not be after what happened with the SP?
BUT as i previously said, i will give out all the good along with the bad and AVCT is the biggest stake in my portfolio by a long way, so i have alot of belief in the product and that the signs of this company reaching unicorn MCAP status is still very likely and hence my current holding position and taking an even larger stake in the recent placing.
The most recent announcement in regards to AS's remuneration is expected since there are sooo many windfalls during this possible 'transformational' period for the company, if he has set the bar high then he has as much to risk financially as the rest of us, hence why even though there are all these mates-rates going on internally he still has to make the company perform exceptionally well in order to get his ultimate prize.........aswell as ours.
Normally a placing would drop the SP depending on the size of discount (as witnessed with the GDR debacle), so i am glad that it was only a small discount yet a nominal amount of funding overall.
Oversubscription though? that i guess is debatable since we dont even know the level of shares that were put out but PrimaryBid to PI's, and again, PB are owned by FinnCapp who obviously have the best intention to make AVCT look good at all times.
I'm not playing the ramp/deramp game, these are just my thought as an investor who has alot riding on the company. If i only ever looked at the positives and none of the possible negatives i wouldn't be able to make comprehensive decisions for the money which i have worked 10+ hard years to gain and now put into someone else's hands to (hopefully) exponentially increase that value.
Everyone is on here for the obvious - make a profit. But that profit can vary from 0.1% to 10000% and i can guarantee you that those who are able to buy at the bottom and sell at the top cannot do it on a constant basis. So in theory, everyone is a loser because even if you make 500% on your initial investment, you see someone who sold 10p higher and think "ahhhhh that could've been me if i held on longer", this is typical in every business and it drives us to do more analysis and create more in-depth decisions the next time around. Its the best learning curve that nobody can teach you except yourself and your judgement.
£1.68 isn't bad, its only bad now because the price is lower but there are people who bought in at £2.00 that its even worse for, but remember that your loss is only registered when you sell, until that point the SP will fluctuate and it can go higher or lower. If you have belief that it will go higher (from your own research) then hold and sell when you are comfortable to take whatever profit you think is adequate, If you think it will go lower (again, based on your own research) then sometimes you have to cut your losses and maybe you lose a few hundred £ now, but you might've learned a lesson that will earn you a few thousand £ on your next pick.
Overall :
1. you aren't foolish (even the most seasoned traders make foolish mistakes)
2. Newbies can make or lose money like anybody else in any profession (i've seen tons of beginners luck in every aspect of life)
And that the majority of us on here have faith in AVCT that it will go higher due to incoming RNS's which are still due and if positive the only way is up. But then again, none of us know what is going to be in those RNS's, hence research research and research are your most valuable weapons in this arena : )
GL mate
I've started seeing these types of comments as a flipside view now instead of a deramp after being proven wrong about no funding required.
Some good points made to be honest but not exactly true as of yet since those RNS's have yet to drop, true that none of us has actually seen this technology work and it could all be a hype train for them to put the business in the spotlight to secure funding for their core business.
BUT if you look at the history of the company spanning a few years ago and wayyy before any of this covid situation, you can see that they are and have been put in a situation where their technology has been primed for a situation like this, affirmers were i think suggested to them a few years back to be able to detect and confirm respratory diseases/infections, and i think we are all agreed that nobody in the world could have predicted Covid19 coming. Just thought id put abit of light onto that one
Secondly, yes you do have a point that their commercial partners are essentially shareholders and there may be conflict of interest, but thats just 1 distribution channel, the B2C. They still have to use the exact same product for B2B so why take the risk of losing 50% of an explosive cash-generating product just not to get it certified the right way?
Indeed the current marketcap based on the current financials do not align, but i think the biggest gains to make are from speculation because its only on markets like AIM where companies SPs will/can (as proven) multiply many times over in a day based off of one RNS.
There is no concrete product, there is no sales as of yet, there is no other distribution channels setup
But for those that have done their research, there is a 'transformational' set of results that are due in the coming weeks and IF those quell all the above mentioned question marks, then i guess we might have another AIM unicorn in the making
Do we know if the full £48m was put up via PrimaryBid as i highly doubt that was the case due to the bulk majority possibly going to large Institutions and a small select amount going to PI's like ourselves, after this placing debacle i am kind of on the suspicious side of the coin now in regards to the overall motives of them raising cash.
Of course if it really is oversubscribed that would look great but might also be a case of only having £5m out of the £48m on PrimaryBid, hence the oversubscription.
Dont get me wrong i am heavily invested in AVCT but at the same time i was 99.9% confident last night that all the signs and confirmations lead to them not needing any further cash till 2021 onwards. And next minute i wake up and they are placing at £1.20 for 40m shares. Just makes me double guess myself going forward on where i see the company going
So they started with £45m and now they want £48m or is it an additional £48m? If so thats abit of a hard ask. Guessing its gone from £45-48m though since they are saying it was oversubscribed. But we dont actually know that though i guess.
I managed to get a confirmation this morning when i applied, but then my friend tried to apply like half an hour later and couldnt see any option to buy just 'overview' which means im guessing it sold out already by then?
At £1.20 i guess i cannot complain considering the SP is just above that but they arent going into accounts until 23rd June which is still weeks away.
Like i said i would tip my hat off if i was wrong and not going to lie i was wrong indeed, but i based my assumption off of what was said and to be honest the majority of the people on here were assured by Alistair and on the presentation that no further funding was required.
I'm still trying to dive through the notes that are on the RNS but either way, very very disappointed that one thing was said and that wasn't upheld. The only way i would be ok with this placing is if it is needed for quick-term funding (which apparently seems the case) in order to maximize the opportunity in front of us.
If there is a RNS very very very soon about successful testing with the covid projects i would be understanding, but right now they havent put out enough details to judge otherwise
Me = Proof, logical reasoning, quoting things that were publicaly posted by the company/CEO.
You = Rumours, Hearsay, Deramping, Showing up out of nowhere as soon as theres a drop in SP.
Its like going to the doctors and you ask for a 2nd opinion, the experienced doctor A of 20+ years who gives sound advice based on research and gives you reasoning why you should take medicine x, or you listen to doctor B who has just started his first day at work and just 'tells' you to take medicine Z without any proof or reasoning to show you why, but he's heard 'rumours' that it works.
If you are right in the end then ill tip my hat off to you, BUT i still wouldnt regret my decision to hold either way.
Why?
Because 99.9% of people would still choose to see Doc A than Doc B, and you cannot regret making logical choices over 'rumours and hearsay'.
@Newbie111
Yes an no, i think placing even at the current SP will confuse and deride current investors.
As mentioned, you stated you dont need any more money, your 2 biggest possible money-making projects have already been completed and are just waiting for the money to come in.
So why ask for more money you dont need other than to make shareholders think that not all is well behind the scenes?
For those guys how easy is it for an MM to make up and account on this board or the other aforementioned board to shake the trees and pick up their lot on the cheap. If that was my job that is exactly what i would do lol
if it is your job to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest and there is nothing illegal about making up an account online to 'express' your opinion, even if some people get scared and start dumping then thats their job done and its cost them nothing except a few clicks on a keyboard and some scared-tactic text.
If you buy a new-build offplan house before its been built from a reputable housebuilder, say a 4 bed with 1 en suite and 1 bathroom, are you going to constantly be pestering them with the question "will it definetly 100% have a bathroom?", "are you 100% absolutely certain it will have a toilet in the bathroom?", "will the bathroom have a door?", "will you supply water into the bathroom?"........No you wouldnt because 99% of people buy into something based on the validity of what was shown / said / promised.
Allistar 'did' say that no further funding was required, and 'did' say that they were sent off to Cytiva / Adeptrix, and 'did' say that there was possibility of a 'neutralising' agent for another possible product. He said all these things which are a completion of our speculation of a commecially-viable product. He hasn't promised us that the MCAP would be £1bn by 2021 or that we would get an RNS every week until release etc. So far he has delivered on what he has said.
So if you are getting scared by the derampers question yourself as to what their motives are, and how long they would spend questioning an estate agent about whether their new house will be made of bricks or paper mache
Placing - A placing usually involves offering your company's shares to a selected base of institutional investors. This allows you to raise capital with lower costs and greater freedom and it gives your company more discretion to choose its investors.
Im sure we are ALL agreed on that description above. right?
Moving on, if the CEO has stated that they are fully funded till 2021 all we can do is take his word for it, right? Just like most of us have invested thousands of £'s and other insititutional investors millions of £'s when none of us have even seen one of these tests in our hands, everything is by the word of the company/CEO.
For 90% of us investors as i mentioned in my previous post that they have esentially created a cash-cow with no risk because they will (when/if released) collect royalty and profit sharing from these projects which have now been fully completed and sent off for validation (Cytiva/Adeptrix).
Again, When/If released they just sit back and collect money based on the 2 aforementioned payment schemes. So why on earth would they decrease the overall SP value of your shareholders and institutional investors investment by requesting/taking on discounted money you don't even need anymore?
Look, i'm not saying that it won't happen because i don't know the future but if you are a CEO (and professor) of a publically traded company which has been running for 15+ years, and end up making a decision like that after publically stating and esentially ensuring your existing investors that no further funds are required, then i highly doubt he would ever find another investor again and the company reputation aswell as his will be questioned for a long time to come.
Now, if you think A.Smith is like that or that AVCT is a smoke-and-mirrors institution here for the pump-n-dump then thats fine you obviously would've sold out by now, but if you have read the clear signals that have been advertised over the past few weeks then there is nothing to say that this is the case. I could be 100% wrong, but like i said its all about what you choose to believe.
dont know if i should be looking at google for the closing price anymore because that last crossing trade at market closes for 80 shares at £1.38 nearly made me think wtf? lol
Based on right now, i don't think anybody knows what the SP is realistically should be valued at hence the volatility, i am looking at both sides and do not want to come across as any sort of ramp/deramp. I will just give the factual information that is at hand today:
The product viability, based on all the public information given to us shows that the test works. They would not have sent the test to Adeptrix/Cytiva AND publicly announced it if that was the case, makes no sense for them not to have tested it 100x to ensure that all is good before sending off to your business partners.
We are too used to hearing at least 1 RNS every week since April that we have been accustomed to, and hence taking the ride up with the SP which has been averaging up every week since March. So any type of bump in the road and of course nervy investors and PI's will want to take a profit and run, thats in their nature and thats what their ultimate goal was/is. Nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
We know there is a demand for some type of LFD as it would obviously prove better as compared to the current testing situation, but we dont know how much that demand is due to the easing of lockdowns in many countries, it may seem like everything is going back to normal BUT just like the SP going down, those of us who are holding HAVE to take a blind approach to the bumps in this road if you are in it for the long-term, just that the same way that governments now HAVE to let people out and work otherwise their economies will not recover. Alot of hands are being forced but that now leads us into unknown territory.
AVCT are guaranteed to make a profit from every test they sell, they are taking a profit sharing approach and as previously mentioned a royalty-based scheme since they are not the ones physically manufacturing the tests themselves.
So putting the 'neutralizing' agent aside, and just focusing on testing. There is 2 Routes to market which have already been setup and essentially are money-printing avenues for the company. Royalties + profit sharing without the need for further investment or outgoings is a win-win situation.
All our hopes and £$£$ are pinned on a RNS that provides us with that confirmation and that they are ready to start collecting the money. Before any of that happens though we are still pinning our hopes on a very realistic dream
We have 66 Million people in the UK, less than 3 Million have been tested to date, so thats only 4.54% of the population tested. Given the timeframe, those who have had covid will most likely have recovered now or symtoms have gone.
It is therefore impossible to know if the remaining 95.46% of people are asymtomatic and even if 5% of the population is and goes undetected due to the easing of lockdown, then as we know with this virus that number will double and continue to multiply.
Lets keep this as the keyword in regards to the outlook of the company, as with most publically listed companies their reach/scope and potential is 'Global'.
Bearing that in mind i predict a strong majority of AVCT investors are most likely UK-based, and we think that the majority of the UK-based news is sufficient enough to make a buy/sell decision. But our testing reach/potential actually hinders on other countries more due to them having higher cases and less ability to test the majority of their populations, also we are an isolated island so once we had cut off air/sea travel there is less ability to enter the country.
The entirety of Europe / East / Asia is interconnected and the ability to mix and go undetected is far higher, which creates a higher flow in regards to movement of people, and in the more developing countries the need for testing will be higher and play the most substantial role in the amount of tests needed.
As Hants has already mentioned, the global case rise is a continual upward trend, we may be lucky enough to have the infrastructure to lockdown everyone on this island and to stop the flow of people but only 11% of the world is islands, the other 89% of global land is interconnected.
Too many are basing their covid investments on local and not global, but this is a global problem and until every country has reported no new cases then there will be a continual demand for testing
True but also not specific enough
1 - Test has been proven to work, its just the commercialability which we are pinning it on
2 - Competitor - i cannot see any other 10-min antigen tests in development as of yet
3 - Covid19 dies out - based on this, the only reason you will know if it has died out is if everyone in the world took a test, which means 7,500,000,000 tests need to be ordered at some point.