Member Info for CaptNemo

Shis it @ 10:00 BST

Kats -maybe they don't know!!

The latest extension was due to expire today, were we not expecting an RNS ??

With the AGM on Monday, are we now expecting an RNS at the close of business today, or first thing Monday morning to set-up the AGM?

Hi Folks, just joined the party here - last week.

Curious to see some very large six figure trades that are reported late in the day, on both Thursday & today - from the price they look like buys. Anyone know what's going on - if anything??

More encouraging news from Astaris, they reduced again yesterday, now down to 1.93 % - a drop of 0.58% or 3m shares in a week - cool. It's clear they have had a change of sentiment and are looking to reduce their risk and take some profits - so far it looks like an orderly and controlled exit. Long may it continue.

Have a good weekend folks.

YB - Agree that it's good to see any reduction in short positions, especially by one of the big 3, but it was only 0.03% or ~160k shares and within the range of the 'tweaks' Astaris has done to their holding this year - see below.

PETROFAC LTD 2.48% 5 Sep 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.51% 11 Jun 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.45% 23 Apr 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.53% 16 Apr 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.63% 22 Feb 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.51% 25 Jan 2024

PETROFAC LTD 2.46% 20 Dec 2023

PETROFAC LTD 2.34% 15 Dec 2023

PETROFAC LTD 2.26% 7 Dec 2023

PETROFAC LTD 2.10% 6 Dec 2023

Lets hope it's just the beginning of a bigger unwinding :)

100 - sometimes what initially looks like corruption and crookedness turn out to be nothing more that - total an utter incompetence !!

Looks like the market does not like the latest RNS - down just over 7% at the start.

The financial side of the RNS is good, very good and inline with previous comments. I guess it's the change in share holder distribution that people don't like or don't understand.

While it might be disruptive in the short term as it's an unexpected change, yet again from SF, I have to think in the longer run it will be very good news for the SP, but I have no idea why SF has done this. It's obvious that they no longer wish to be a majority share holder in GMS, but are retain just under 10% because it's a good business.

While the ongoing debt reduction is a significant driver in increasing shareholder value over the coming years, GMS was never going to be a take over target with two big players owning over 50% of the company. That situation has now changed, and there is only one big holder. So, while a takeover is probably not currently on the cards, it's no longer an impossibility and that has to be good news.

Curious to see some big trades go through today, bigger than normal.

See the six below, all above 100,000.

2024-09-03T13:24:07+01:00 GBp 15.5435 100000 15,540 Off-book XLON

2024-09-03T13:19:29+01:00 GBp 15.5029 100000 15,500 Off-book XLON

2024-09-03T12:26:22+01:00 GBp 14.526 100000 14,530 Off-book XLON

2024-09-03T09:40:40+01:00 GBp 15 158677 23,801.55 AT XLON

2024-09-03T13:18:10+01:00 GBp 15.8 500000 79,000 Off-book XLON

2024-09-03T12:42:17+01:00 GBp 14.9925 1000000 149,900 Off-book XLON

A couple of the 100K trades look like they could be sells, but the three biggest totalling 1.658 million are, as far as I can figure, buys.

My guess is that Whitebox, having made the decision to reduce their short position are continuing to close. The were last listed at 0.44% or 2.3 million shares, because there is no requirement to report positions below 0.5% we should not expect to see a reduction in short % on tomorrows short tracker - but either way it's a welcome sign.

And, there is always the possibility that one of the big three could have blinked - one day :)

Hi Jyoti1 - I hate to be picky, but you're a decimal point out.

There are 525.37m shares, 1% is 5,253,700 shares and 0.1% is 525,370 shares. But, there is no reason to assume that the trades that you highlighted, and possibly others, are not shorts reducing.

I would imagine that at the current SP all of the shorts are well in the money, so they could start to reduce and take profits as Whitebox appear to be doing.

The point to look out for is when/if one of the other three big shorters starts to reduce, then it could get very interesting. The fact that they do not appear to be taking profits at the moment suggests that they think there will either be a D4E and they can cover for pennies, or that PFC will go bust and they win it all. Those are both distinct possibilities, BUT if PFC can muddle through, and each day is a small step in that direction, then they will start to reduce.

PT - It's good to see any reduction in shorts - as it suggests a changing sentiment - but it's not 8.7% - but 9.13% as Whitebox dropped to 0.44% and thus below the declarable threshold of 0.5% - hence the apparent large drop. Would have been great if they had decided to close the whole position.

My guess is that the total short exposure is higher than 9.13% as there are likely to be some players with only a few ten's of a percentage shorted. Which means that one piece of positive news in an RNS and this could double, and then double again, IF there is ever a short squeeze. We live and hope.

Hope you enjoyed your ice cream :)

100 - there is nothing I can see to suggest this is being aggressively shorted, 'Short Interest Tracker' shows zero shorting, which means that any fund holding a short position is less than the 0.50% necessary for notification. Do you know something we don't?

I think the main reason the SP is not higher is that the stock /company is almost invisible, most days only a handful of trades takes place and our glorious leader and the BoD are doing absolutely FA to improve the situation. There is no dividend, no share bye back!!

Mr Picky - thanks, an interesting read, especially the estimate for Net Debt - now we know why the last bidders walked away.

Same here Happy, sold on the bell for a small lose, will watch from the side lines for a bit.

Hi Mary, I hope your right - you often are.

Good to see your sensor of humour is mostly still intact Vet .

Looks like the folks at ShortTracker have all gone on vacation too, it did not update on Monday, updated yesterday at 15:50 when the market was still open, and again today it has not yet updated. Which is a shame as I think some of those big buys in the last hour yesterday could have been Whitebox chipping away at their exposure - or some else starting to reduce - now that would be good news.

I'm with you 100, a fairly positive RNS

Six of the big stones recovered during the period were sold - so that leaves 3 remaining big stones to be sold at a later date, plus any new ones that come along. The average price of the 11 big stones sold in the six months was $2.68m each, so the three remaining stones could be worth around $8m.

It's absolutely crazy NOT to start share buybacks at these prices, come on Clifford - do it!!!

Looks like Whitebox Advisors are slowly unwinding their short position, yesterday saw them reduce by another ~ 1/4 M shares and last Friday (5th Aug) they reduced by ~1/2M shares - this is all good news.

My guess is that they will probably reduce by a further 1/4M in the next few days and then they will drop below the 0.50% reporting level. They obviously don't think it's game over for PFC.

What would be really interesting to see is one or more of the other three BIG shorters start to reduce their exposure, just to state the obvious;

- Astaris are short 13.2 M shares

- Helikon are short 12.3 M shares

- Millennium are short 10.6 M shares

That's a lot of exposure if it does not go their way........

It's sure testing my patience too - just averaging down every now and then in the HOPE that management either pull their fingers out, OR some one makes an offer, happy with either outcome.

Surely something has to give soon????!!!!!????

The RNS talks about 9 large stones this year, but there have only been 8 RNS bulletins about large stones. The total weight for the 8 large stones reported via RNS is approx 1350 carets or almost 169 carets each.

In last years Annual Report it mentions the auctioning of three large stones each weighing 58 carets (much smaller than the biggies pulled out this year) and they averaged $35k per caret or about $2m per stone. I'm not an expert in diamond prices so I have no idea if the large stones pulled out so far this year would auction form similar prices, but they would only have to sell for $16.3k per caret to be worth the whole value of the company - our current market cap is £17.6m ($22m)

It's not over stating the issue to say that this years 8 reported stones are almost certainly worth more than the company. Let's see what happens on Tuesday 13th when the results come out.