Member Info for cannyscot2

You don't argue over an empty box but some on here would argue with their shadow just for the hell of it.

Agree with those who say it only needs to be RNSd if the 265k NOT paid in cash i.e. if additional shares had to be issued via conversion to meet any of their monthly obligations for repayment it definitely would be RNSd as additional shares would have to be issued and at today's price the headroom would disappear like sna' aff a dyke. As it stands the number of preference shares held by YA will be reduced every month till they have none left. If all goes according to plan Zaza might even say "hey folks, YA are paid off in full" around June next year.

Does anyone have an idea of what monthly operating costs are likely to be just now? At $12 pboo that would be around $216-217k pm if producing 600 bopd guesstimated by Code which would allow for an ongoing build-up of cash flow until further field development takes place or they bring the fraccing team back in for Zone 9 on two wells? If I heard it correctly in podcast it appears they are still testing zones 14 and 15 at Dino and T45 as they already know how Zone 9 behaves long term and it is how these other 2 zones behave that will allow reserves to be booked? Hence EEWTs.

Have a great weekend folks and if the board is stressing you out have a KitKat break!!

Comment re YA being paid in cash again is not only good news in that no dilution but also shows they are making sufficient from sale of oil to cover ongoing operating costs and pay YA which is good news.

Free - moi? Not been hiding. Just watching from the sidelines mostly.

http://pumpedordumped.com/plots/demo/ramper_FRR.png

lots of info when you search the site re share movement and trades. Not sure about pie chart being up to date though cos surely Rainbow would be top. .

Excellent read and very comprehensive. Look fwd to their next update when petrophysical data has been looked at in detail. 0.82 under review and in view of positive note it has to be up the way.
Their oil is there and they're producing commercial quantities from Zones 14 and 15. Zone 19 and 22 to 25 could be a whole new ball game. (just for you Coggy - 11/10 please).
Patiently holding for results.

110/100 super sleuths. Will be interesting to see outcome of Cairn's arbitration with India in light of this. Think it is due to start this month.

And the hedge fund funding Niko 1 did not stump up that money without seeing more than we know. Yes UD2 should have been dealt with differently but thinking we will get some results before the end of this month. Zaza believes he can turn this around so until results out for all three wells, his first drilling campaign as CEO then we cannot prejudge him.

Nm

Well someone has faith. Just popped £20k in here. Read all the doom and gloom then looked at the trades and lots of blue this afternoon

Thanks folks

The other side of the coin on that theory is that total shares issued have not increased so does that blow it out of the water

Last time we saw cancelled trades there was never an explanation given by the Company. There were many theories but it was mostly agreed it was too blatant to be underhand. Now it has possibly starters again near the time when YA are likely due to be paid their next 265k instalment I am wondering if in order to cancel the preference shares they have to be converted to ord shares and then through the market the trade gets cancelled so they are seen to be converted to be redeemed and the remaining number reduced. Just a thought but would welcome opinions as this was the start of sp falling due to not knowing what was going on last time with cancelled trades. Did anyone keep a record of the total cancelled trade amounts? Looking forward to ewt results soon and like SB on ii says 600 bops upwards would be a good start with Niko 1 later in the year. Gla

did the same when working out 203tcf - got £2.47 p/s when it should have been £24.70. Oh if only UD2............................................................................

on 26 July now around 2 or less than 3 weeks. Not too long to wait.

Oh Coggy!!
Why oh why did you not include a chapter on hindsight. If you had published it in October we could all be piling in again on Friday past with 3 times as many shares as we could have sold in October.
Seriously though hope it comes good for all of you large holders. We can all win or lose and one man's £10k can mean as much to him as the next person's £100k but that's Aim for you. We make our choices and have to live with them. :)

They need to be half decent for company to fulfil upcoming obligations and existing. Remember we only get half of Niko 1 production till well cost repaid then 70%. One board member at least will possibly be looking for flows to be less than expected Mr H? Mole more qualified to comment on this aspect than I will ever be.

Between last week and today is that there were more sensible posts on here relating to FRR over the weekend. Keep it up folks and filter or ignore the trolls and moaners. We could all add our averages, losses or gains but seriously it adds nothing of value on the B.B. It was great reading over the weekend. Positives and negatives. No news which caused rise today. Agree price was reduced at close of play and not apparent why. Tomorrow will tell if it was the MMs at it again. Looking for share sellers again? Perhaps now the market is starting to interpret recent data on Zone 19

Thanks Pecten. Yes surprised too at his estimated cost of new wells. Thought it would be much higher

Funding like Niko 1 takes the risk of the drill away but long term company are giving away 30% of production for that low risk financing of the well. Great solution short term but on reflection not the best deal for future wells after Niko 1.

Frustrating as it is for us, the proving up of the resources is all important to enable borrowing/financing at more favourable rates. Fair enough the Company then takes the risk but if Zone 19 as good long term as it appears with no frac or stimulation and even the possibility of 20, 23 and 25 being targeted in future wells then booking reserves by EWTs while improving cash flow and paying off the 265k pm in cash is a good way forward.

2019 and 2020 will be pivotal for FRR so they absolutely have to get this right. as Outrider repayment looms ever closer. Zaza could do with that monkey off his back too. They could definitely do with another well flowing Spring 2019 drilled to Zone 19 after Niko 1. This will be the focus of Zaza's attention, doubling output.
Take on Zone 9 from podcast was that it has not been flowed yet, A couple of times Zaza said only 14 and 15 being tested (I think). As someone said they know what there is to know about Zone 9 and can commingle later
Posts today have been great. Thanks a zillion all.
A question for those who know about oil and gas. Is it possible to go back into Dino 2 and/or T45 to Zone 19? Is this likely to be something they are considering? Just have a feeling that these two are not producing as much as they would like but could be totally wrong.

Interesting also in the podcast that we only have 1 or 2 wells left from the Soviet era which are suitable for sidetracking and future wells are to be new wells which he reckons they can drill for $3.2 to $3.3m. If they go for Zone 19 and it does not need fracked or stimulated cost per well reduced.
If it is to be new oil wells for future down to Zone 19 or beyond, this will avoid the old drilling materials and should increase production as long as the bit is put down in the right place;) And then they could go for the 3.2tcf of gas below.
We need to get to a stage asap where new wells are funded from production and borrowing at decent rates but once YA have got their remaining $265k x 11 up to 5/2019 then income freed up for funding development and by then Niko 1 should be on stream hopefully producing from Zone 19 and the Hedge Fund should recover their costs fairly quickly so we can go to 70/30 split. Who knows. They could develop a few wells this way. Outrider still to sort out in 2020.
We are in FIELD DEVELOPMENT FOLKS. They have the info and a bit more cash flow to allow FRR to move onto this stage and looks like they will now be able to book reserves if T39 keeps flowing and Niko 1 is a success.
Udabno is on the back burner but not forgotten.