Member Info for canillasboy

First 10 mins 400k and 250k to start the day off.

Most mining stocks were down yesterday, mainly blamed on gold and copper falling with some others too and US dollar rising.

Still seeing the persistent seller with blocks of 200k, 300k and 500k again yesterday. The buyers were not able to keep pace yesterday it seems but were also still in evidence so they are still trying to mop up what is on offer, so think we stay in similar trading range as recently.

Curiously TUN lost a similar amount (4%) today on just 1m shares traded. The 3 month charts for both look quite similar. Not sure if there is anything in that. Shouldn't be really as they are at very different stages but similar projects???

Still think it is sort of being managed. About 2/3 of todays trades are represented by about 30 transactions ( both buys and sells). I think we will finish not much changed again. Then over next couple of days it will recover a bit then slide a bit.

Sorry yes , forgetting they used two rigs last year.

The company has stated its intention to announce a time line to PFS and I am guessing getting the planning permission for the extra drilling program is key to them arriving at that.

If they were to get it by the beginning of July, by then the first two drills would be largely complete (c1000m) so we would be left with 21500m to drill. The historical drill rate has be 42mpd so using 40m per pad per day and using 3 pads the average daily drill would be 120m so c180 days, end of December 26 for all the drilling. There will be a continuous flow of logging and sampling etc and I understand that the PFS does not initially rely on having to include all the logging and sampling results from the new drills in order to be published , as the PFS can be updated as they become available. They have stated that they believe the PFS work is some six months ahead of time ,so a timeline into early 27 seems possible. The drilling time frame is very dependent on achieving 40mpd at each pad and I guess certain rock layers are harder or softer than others but they previously achieved 42mpd last year.

Viking, can't quite agree with your thought that "this is going nowhere for years".

We are currently in a period of PFS preparation where even if there is positive news from the planning consent, infill drilling or sampling data etc it is unlikely to move the sp in a startling manner but just provide more confirmation of the project potential. Once all that data and more is put together in a PFS the goal posts move to the positive a bit as it provides a much higher degree of certainty of success of the project going forward. If that can be followed by clarity of a finance route as the project advances to DFS then a likely higher sp will consolidate further as institutions and private investors can see the higher degree of certainty and a more definite timeline. What the timeline will be may become much clearer at PFS as much DFS related work is apparently being carried out now too.

So the board and the workforce are beavering away to get us to PFS asap (probably months away) and their track record to date shows how much can be done in a short time frame when it is organised and galvanised.

So atm yes it is like watching paint dry. My feeling is that the sp is being managed by the MM's and large buyers and sellers alike to keep it in the same zone as it has been for the last month or so, while the PFS preparation proceeds. Always follow the money and a bit like TUN where one can expect a solid sp jump up in just a few more months as they near production so SML will jump forward once PFS is published and a clearer view forward can be seen. In the meantime patience and belief are the way forward . For those that need a faster buck then they will need to chance their luck elsewhere as SML is a few months away from its next big leg up, but it will come.

Just think we need to wait for PFS and then most other things will fall into place

Having delved deeper into SML's current market perception I have to modify my own ideas for short term sp progress.

The positive factors;

Strong potential for Redmoor Project

Good continued revenue stream from Cobre

Continued strong and growing world wide demand for Tungsten, tin, silver and copper

Strong previous share price momentum and market analyst re-rating.

Negative factors;-

Funding requirement for project development

Small cap AIM volatility and liquidity

Sensitivity to commodity prices fluctuations

Regulatory and execution risks.

So the likely way forward will be full throttle to PFS and then address funding (at that point UK Gov may play a part again)

Atm there seems to be only positive moves in the commodity prices and demand so that is likely to be a growing benefit.

So in the interim even with positive drilling and sampling results ( which will continue to strengthen the potential of the project viability) the sp will likely trade in its current general band and only meaningfully re-rate with the advent of PFS and more so if there is a clearer path to funding going forward. The only other caveat is that UK Gov may commit some kind of funding plan ahead of PFS but unlikely as we are funded until PFS atm.

So as daltry said I think the summer might be like watching paint dry but circa Christmas onwards things may start to move up.

Zeus recently suggested a target sp of 78p for Tun currently c40p. By end of 27 they could be much higher and into dividend???

The Development plan was announced May 25.

Tun announced on 21st May that they are finalising funding of $85m from one lender and have also arranged a bridging loan of a further $25m with an entity related to Mr Coffey. They have an additional c120 new personnel in the pipeline this year and plant arriving on site to prepare for production commencement in Q1 27. They expect year one to generate c$400m so should be in a position to repay these loans and change by end of 27 if not before.

It has only taken them a year so far since their Development & Economic Plan was published so in 18 months they will have made it to production. Admittedly they had an almost shovel ready mine to start with but have had to develop a very different processing plan in order to get to where they are. They have had assistance from the UK Gov with planning, regulatory and strategic matters but no direct funding, but have benefited from being an asset under the Critical Minerals Strategy.

There is no mention of any T/o bids to date but the US is still considering offering a financial package, presumably for some degree of offtake.

So although SML is starting from a green field site it shows how far the Redmoor project has come to date and the speed of progress. The fact that UK Gov have directly assisted with development funding to date albeit small scale and it is encouraging that they remain on the sidelines. Redmoor is anticipated to have more and better quality tungsten ore than Hemerdon , as well as the other metal ores, so this puts the Redmoor project into perspective with our near neighbour.

Lest we forget quite what an amazing project Redmoor is and will become.

Tun announced on 21st May that they are finalising funding of $85m from one lender and have also arranged a bridging loan of a further $25m with an entity related to Mr Coffey. They have an additional c120 new personnel in the pipeline this year and plant arriving on site to prepare for production commencement in Q1 27. They expect year one to generate c$400m so should be in a position to repay these loans and change by end of 27 if not before.

It has only taken them a year so far since their Development & Economic Plan was published so in 18 months they will have made it to production. Admittedly they had an almost shovel ready mine to start with but have had to develop a very different processing plan in order to get to where they are. They have had assistance from the UK Gov with planning, regulatory and strategic matters but no direct funding, but have benefited from being an asset under the Critical Minerals Strategy.

There is no mention of any T/o bids to date but the US is still considering offering a financial package, presumably for some degree of offtake.

So although SML is starting from a green field site it shows how far the Redmoor project has come to date and the speed of progress. The fact that UK Gov have directly assisted with development funding to date albeit small scale and it is encouraging that they remain on the sidelines. Redmoor is anticipated to have more and better quality tungsten ore than Hemerdon , as well as the other metal ores, so this puts the Redmoor project into perspective with our near neighbour.

Lest we forget quite what an amazing project Redmoor is and will become.

Think those that have the ability to manage our sp are doing so. Big buyers and sellers together with MM's are managing our sp in its current zone for now. At some point this will change direction to forward trajectory again .

Also no big moves in Tun sp. At beginning April c36p now c38p with very low volume ( although spike during April but short lived, so much the same as SML.

Tun West is expected to move into pre production Q3 26 and move to full production into 27. It has financial support commitments from subcontractors to settle together with some outstanding liabilities. So even though they are likely to be into profitable production by mid 27 by then SML may well be in sight of DFS . That being the case even if they bid or suggest merger the price is likely to be much higher than 15p I think.

As I say it might just be accounting formality that any holding they had is not shown in the accounts. I have thought all along that they were prime sellers, and they may have other family etc that were multi million holders that may also be offloading. There has definitely been a steady stream of controlled selling since early/mid April but all the offload has been absorbed by others , so as many have said once this selling spree ends as is likely then sp will start to recover again.

The basic last figure SML put on its value would give basic potential bid price c16p and most recent and best case figure ( inc $3kpt for Tungsten price (c$4.5b and 55% IRR)) is c60p. Admittedly during 2026 there will be an awful lot of added value growing within the company and these kinds of figures only view base value and take no account of the added values in play . Our NPV and IRR% could improve further. So post PFS any T/o bid figure could be well north of 60p if the PFS is as good as we all expect. It just gives me more comfort to know that if it went that way, and I hope not, what kind of figures for base price are we likely to be looking at the end of 2026 into 2027 should a bid emerge.

Fwiw Slurm, the 2025 SML Accounts show PW had 80,757,266 at the end of 2024 but nil at the end of 2025. JP not mentioned as resigned before y/e 2024 so not known if he still had a shareholding during 2025 but there is no mention of him in 2025 accounts relating to shareholding. Not sure if this is just Accounting formalities.

A quick look indicates that both mines have relatively low grade ore which is more costly to process etc and so the end profit is smaller. Obviously affected by other production costs which may also weigh on profitability.