Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Could PHNX drop to 400p - yes, absolutely, I think that's possible. Do I think it will? - I have no idea. But being a long-term investor, I'll continue holding as long as the fundamentals are solid and will potentially look to add more once the freefall has stopped. In the meantime, I'm picking up 10% a year which is very nice thank you!
I see nothing whatsoever that is specific to PHNX. All life insurers that I follow, including the US and European ones are falling along with PHNX.
@Porchy: "dividend will be cut or suspended"
Where's the proof mate? answer - there is none. He's just made it up. The guy doesn't deal in facts, just scare mongering. People who make up stories in order to profit off others are scum.
For example, the Dutch company Aegon listed on NYSE has superb metrics in Seeking Alpha and has falled about the same as Phoenix today and is also now in a downtrend. @Porsche is cluess and is spouting nonsense in the hope to make a tenner off his spreadbet.
From what I see, almost everything is dropping. Most life insurers/large asset managers/general insurers have dropped today and are also in a downtrend like PHNX.
FSG: -3.8%
PMI: -3.6%
JUST: -3.5%
PRU: -3.3%
AIG: -2.8%
MET: -2.7%
ADM: -2.6%
AEG: -2.4%
MNG: -2.1%
LGEN: -2%
AV.: -2%
PHNX: -2%
ABDN: -1.7%
OMU: -1.7%
DLG: -1.1%
@Agricore: In the US, I cannot think of a single REIT whose share price is doing well. It's a sea of red almost every day. The worst performing area is commercial/offices. Some of the big US reits are spinning off their office holdings altogether (e.g. WP Carey).
M&G announced yesterday that it's liquidating its commercial property fund. I suspect that many will go that way.
You say that AIRE is stable? It has moved from from 84p to 56 in a few months - that's a 33% drop.
In the UK, reits, infrastructure and renewables (anything that remotely resembles a bond) have been utterly smashed. Even the best run funds with low leverage have been impacted.
I agree that NAVs have not moved as much. The same is true for solar funds (e.g. NESF, FSFL). They've declined even though they have covered divis and solid balance sheets. It's simply that investors are leaving. But that is enough...
FYI: I'm not negative on reits, infrastructure or renewables. Prices always under/over shoot the NAV. There is the opportunity! I think some caution needs to be applied to RGL though due to the excessive leverage. I am liking the RGL Retail bond after the recent drop, though have not pulled the trigger yet.
Anyway - good luck!
FYI: regarding " I'm not seeing this "generational 'sea-change'" to the extent you're reading about."
Everbody I talk to tells me that they now work from home a lot of the time. I know people in conservative industries who now work at home 100% of the time, apart from a once a month trip into the office. That would have been unheard of before. It's not any more...
@Agricore: One thing that took me a very long time to understand and accept, is that it's not just my own opinion that's important when investing. The problem is that all reits (UK/US) are being smashed, so it's perhaps wise to sit and watch from the sideline while prices are in freefall and buy when there's a change in the trend, rather than try and be too smart and try and predict when interest rates/the market will turn. I'm nowhere near smart enough for that and indeed, I don't think the governor of the BoE or the Fed are either...
I think the answer here is dilution - the company has been addings lots more shares during this time. I can understand why the private credit business is doing well atm, but not private equity/asset management. I don't trust the valuations on those businesses and will pass on any investment until it becomes clear. I don't see any compelling investment here, that's not already achievable (at higher/more consistent yield/better quality) in the US market. And one thing for sure is that nobody else here understands POLN.
Why is it that the dividend has been dropping steadily since ? e.g. the Liberum forecast is:
DPS (p) 2017: 84.5, 2018: 80, 2019: 80, 2020: 80, 2021: 80, 2022: 72, 2023: 64, 2024: 50.8
I can appreciate that the recent drop is due to the increased tax after changing from an investment trust to ordinary company? but it's been dropping for years... where's the benefit? why is this attractive to an income investor?
What if the market is pricing in larger falls in asset values due to *much* higher interest rates?
From what I'm reading, offices in the US and UK are experiencing a generational 'sea-change', with even local councils allowing staff to work at home most of the time, resulting in huge office vacanacies and collapsing asset prices. If true, perhaps the market will not bounce back quickly like many here are assuming?
It's not going to surprise me if the (10y) interest rate hits 6% in the US; it might cross 5% within days and UK rates are also rising rapidly again - I wonder if that could lead to a much bigger drop in UK real-estate values than we've seen so far.
On the other hand, I do agree that there is potentially some value here and I'm weighing a position.
"the NAV then it will be a 9.75/2391*100 = 0.4% reduction"
Be that as it may: but why cancel the dividend and why make a statement that future dividend payments will require approval of the lenders if it is indeed going to be just a 0.4% of the NAV? Something does not add up here.
To be perfectly honest, I did not fully understand the RNS, nor do I understand how it could impact future earnings. It seemed weird that a miscalculation of this magnitude could be made and even less clear how it will impact future dividends. The fact that the lenders will have to *approve* future divis was enough for me. I primarily held this as a diversifier for the rest of my portfolio, but without any divi it does not stack up.
I might consider rebuying after some clarity on the future divis, but for now, it's too much of a gamble.
@Porsche: FYI: THese companies buy Giltys to match long-term liabilities (as required by law). There's no need (or sense) to mark those to market as they are never sold early. Do you have ny idea at all how life insurance works?
@Porsche:
90% of 'technical' traders lose money - my guess is that you also lose money, but on the other hand, you're bloody persistent, so maybe you break-even! Who TF is Frasier Crane? Never heard of him...I don't care anyway.
I think it's fairly obvious not to buy a falling knife, so I'll sit back and wait until this has bottomed and add more at some point if it's still solid, which I have no reason to think it won't be. Keep it coming!
According to the broker (Shore Capital/17 July 2023), the divi is not covered, but will be within 12-18m. Cover was supposedly 0.9x with 25% of the portfolio being operational.