Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Criminal proceedings? Good luck! Have you ever dealt with the FCA? They are one of the most hopeless organisations you will ever encounter. Apart from an automatic email response, you'll never hear back from them. The only way that anything happens is if you hire your own lawyer and fight it. Warning: the lawyer will tell you you've got a 'really good chance', but in the meantime he'll literally suck your wallet dry like a mosquito/leach. Such is the UK stock market!
Sadly, it is commonplace for directors to issue rubbish like this. I learned to ignore it after being fleeced many time in this way. You really cannot believe this type of nonsense statement. I looked hard at this one again a few days ago and decided to look at reality and the current dividend coverage rather than promises of management.
It seems that accounting figures are now a total joke under IFRS and that you can tell any story you want - great or terrible, depending on which accounting standard you use.
Reuters: "UK insurer Phoenix half-year profit rises on steady bulk annuity demand"
Market Watch: "Phoenix Group Holdings PLC 1H Loss/Shr 27.1p"
Investors have no idea what is actually going on.
More writedowns; clearly the lending standards were poor and the 'asset-backing' was putty rather than hard assets. 'Executives' at GABI need to go back to school and learn something about how to write an asset-backed loan. They seem to be clueless about it.
Net debt=£390m, mkt cap=£150m, revenue=£60m. I cannot see how the debt will ever be substantially reduced without selling most of the portfolio and a large equity raise. The best outcome would perhaps be an offer from another REIT, but I doubt many will touch it given the level of debt here; more likely is an offer that will wind it down and there could (maybe) be an attractive trade for the brave. It's a falling knife for now though and I'm standing back.
You always need to take PAID research with a grain of salt. Their previous article (25 May 2023) was called:
'Maintaining high dividend distribution' ... I think we're highly likely to see another dividend cut and/or issuance of new equity.
I see no reasons why the sp will not return to >200p in the 6-12m time frame, if improving financial metrics, excessively low valuation and past price history mean anything. Let's first see if it can regain 125p and recover from the March 2022 calamity.
"The Board is pleased to report that the momentum that was starting to build at the end of FY23 has continued into the new financial year, as the Group continues to successfully execute its growth strategy."
@tickhilltim: Regarding the retail bond. I might be mistaken, but I see a Running Yield of about 4.7% on the RGL retail bond:
Buy:£96.30
REGIONAL REIT LTD (RGL1) 4.5% 2024
Is this the bond you're referring to?
It could be interesting if they manage to sell the void space, but more ilkely they'll also have to sell income-producing assets which will hit EPS further. We wait for a plan; until then, this one is now in the 'pure-gamble' basket.
All looking good to me:
"Foresight Solar continued to deliver strongly against its core operational and financial objectives, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year. Electricity production across the portfolio was 2.8% above budget, driven by strong operational performance and good irradiation, and, with assets in all geographies performing well, cash generation was exceptionally strong."
"We are well on track to deliver our 7.55 pence per share dividend target for 2023. Based on the strong cash distribution from the portfolio and the certainty provided by the high levels of near-term energy price hedges, we forecast a 1.5 times dividend cover to at least 2025 on a cash covered basis."
@Notrex: I'm happy to have any of the facts that I mentioned disputed/discussed. Do you consider close to half a billion pounds of debt to be small? How will they reduce the LTV by more than 10% without selling properties? Once they sell properties, how will the EPS not decline?
Only a crazy person would short a stock like this; I don't short any stocks. I couldn't give a toss if you believe me or not...
If you only want to hear positives, then I suggest you look elsewhere. I report facts as I see them.
@Tony - give it a rest. Not everybody here idolizes you. This channel is not about you... I try to stay away in order to avoid you... There is a lot more to investing than writing a spreadsheet and insulting everybody....
I spent some time working through the results and have downgraded my opinion of this share. I only had a micro holding here, but have reduced it by half.
The problem is the debt: £437.4m. That is a terrific amount of debt for a small company (more than half a billion USD...). For a UK/REIT, an LTV of 51.9% is dangerously high and they have made it clear that it needs to be lowered. It will require selling a sizable chunk of the portfolio, which will hit EPS further, making it likely that another savage cut will be made to the dividend in the coming 6-12m. I think another 25% cut is a bare minimum top expect.
It is also possible that interest rates will go higher, further depressing property prices. The damage could become terminal for this reit, as the portfolio will be permanently and significantly smaller. It could stil be attractive for newcomers at a lower price, but not for those anchored up higher.
For these reasons, I see further, significant share price pressure and the possibility of the sp dropping below 30p. I'll have another look after Mr Inglis takes action.