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Or selling because no RNS showed, only to find there is one when they update 🤔

Anything more you’d like to share, Mr Wolf? 🤔

Pete - fully agree, and probably should have said “upon successful drills…”

Saying that, we wouldn’t be here if we didn’t believe they can get it out; Selan are no mugs and we should have a decent shot at it…. “Both Synergia and Selan are focussed on developing the Cambay PSC Eocene gas and gas condensate reservoir which contains independently certified 2P gas reserves of 206 BCF (as at 1 June 2022).”

It’s important to remember that GoI approval isn’t the end of the process, although the $2.5m will come in handy.

In fact, it’s the beginning. They will start immediately (or imminently at least 😂) on the drilling programme which we are carried for the first 3 wells and 3 workers up to a total of $20m.

By that point, the revenue coming in will allow us to self-fund our part of the programme - which is looking to be initially 10 wells, up to 30 wells over time.

Game-changing.

That’s not how I read it -it’s not WITH the gov, it’s because of them.

“

Synergia Energy Limited ("Synergia" or the "Company") announces it has entered into a further short-term loan to provide working capital pending the Government of India ("GoI") approval of the transfer of 50% of the Company's Cambay PSC to Selan Exploration Technology Limited ("Selan").”

Sorry, what’s this Government loan?

Only thing I can see from the 12/06 is confirmation of the £400k from existing investors. Maybe Alliance have mis-read it (or I have!)

I’d suggest checking out the price movement on ZPHR to see how quickly things can change.

Granted, they didn’t have a placing but sentiment was low - as investors/traders started to see the timeline to an imminent drill followed by immediate production test, the price moved fast, from 2p up to 5.7p in a matter of weeks.

I see similar happening here, and without the added risk of a duster or non-commerciality.

I reckon 3p will be blasted through and 4p will be eased through. Then new resistance points will be in place and we won’t see these kind of prices again.

You can normally follow the sp to understand if a Placing is coming.

We know they need cash, both for the business and for XF-73; unfortunately, the sp collapse seems to be telling the story of how it will be funded

Zag & Carrot both on the same day? Things must be looking up 😂

Just need Egypt PI for the full set 😁

(Just kidding gents 🫣)

We’re basically sitting in a 0.10-0.14p range, and have been for a while, with a few exceptions (placing at 0.08p, JV taking us to 0.2p).

GoI will draw a line under that and start to take us to a new level based on forward-looking value.

The delay to the results is likely to be due to a massive placing that was conducted a month ago.

Quite possibly so they can tie some positive looking and announcements in with it as well.

2023 results shouldn’t give too many surprises, the interesting bits will be Post period.

Https://x.com/candlesticks18/status/1804932298984268174?s=46&t=ipW7IMp6GVgCsYSTs_Wd3g

And the charts are aligning too

Here’s my argument for SYN and why I believe it’s woefully undervalued:

- MCAP of just £12m currently

- GoI approval ""imminent"", immediately giving $2.5m to SYN

- CEO taking short-term loans over dilution to protect shareholders

- A free carry for the first $20m of drilling - 3 new wells and 3 work overs

- Additional bonus payments of up to $9m based on production targets

- Retaining 50% of all revenues - no cost liability until 3 drills completed.

- Targeting BASE CASE of 4MMcf/day PLUS 160bopd of condensate (UPSIDE CASE of 6MMcf/d & 240 bopd)

- Revenue based on 4MMcf/d gives $20m+ to SYN once 3 wells producing. No outgoings at this point due to free carry

- New drill expected every 5 months of a 10-drill programme

- Peak revenue after 10th well producing of $4m per MONTH

- Possibility of 30-wells to extract P50 of 206Bcf reserves

Once GoI approval is given, we just need them to crack on and Synergia will be unrecognisable from today. None of the above includes the benefits from their CCS schemes.

As ever, I’m sure there’ll be a spike and retrace, but it depends what people are aware of in terms of potential.

I’ve put my numbers together and it’s scarily good! We’ll have almost $4m in the bank within 5 months of production, by the time the 4th well comes online - when we start paying our share - we’ll have accrued $20m.

Some assumptions made:

4MMcf/d

linear decline rate of 30%

40bodp condensate per 1MMcf/d gas (taken from Roland in Oct 2023 presentation)

Gas price at $8.59/MMBtu

Condensate price at $67.29/bbl

——

10 well model

Start Date Revenue SYN share

01/09/24 $0

11/02/25 $7,355,603 $3,677,802

24/07/25 $13,725,757 $6,862,879

03/01/26 $19,242,485 $9,621,242

15/06/26 $24,020,122 $12,010,061

25/11/26 $28,157,687 $14,078,844

07/05/27 $31,740,932 $15,870,466

17/10/27 $34,844,120 $17,422,060

28/03/28 $37,531,566 $18,765,783

07/09/28 $39,858,967 $19,929,484

17/02/29 $41,874,561 $20,937,280

30/07/29 $36,264,517 $18,132,258

09/01/30 $31,406,065 $15,703,033

21/06/30 $27,198,513 $13,599,256

01/12/30 $23,554,657 $11,777,329

13/05/31 $20,398,979 $10,199,489

23/10/31 $17,666,074 $8,833,037

03/04/32 $15,299,304 $7,649,652

13/09/32 $13,249,617 $6,624,808

Thanks - weirdly, I’m sure I’ve heard a presentation a while ago where condensate was trading at a premium to oil, but that might not have been SYN.

Thanks for your help, looks like my numbers should be good for a base case - they look pretty impressive imo.

Thanks Espen, I’ll stick with those then (pity I can’t delete posts!). Can you see any issues with the numbers I’ve put together?

Do you have any up-to-date prices for Condensate, I’ve gone with the March 2024 figures the company gave.

I’ve estimated 200 bopd as I can’t see anywhere that they’ve stated production targets apart from within the graphs in the presentation. Do you know if there’s anything out there?

There’s also condensate to consider:

Condensate price - $67 per barrel

Targeting 200 Barrels per day

$13,400 / day

$4,891,000 / year

$2,445,500 - SYN 50% share

Estimating the price from the recent Financial Report - this is where I got the initial $8.57/MMBtu, so maybe it is correct, I don’t think gas prices have dropped that significantly but I’m not sure what ours are based on.

Updated numbers for Gas prices - significantly different to what they were in Dec 23…

Gas price($) = $2.72 per MMBTU

Synergia Targeting 4MMcf/d (base case)

4 MMcf = 4000 MMBtu

$10,880 / Day

$3,971,200 / Year (1.46 Bcf/year)

Synergia 50% share = $1,985,600 / year

Overall P50 = 205 Bcf

Value $557,600,000

Same thing applies though - $2m/year initially for each well, and we’re funded for 3 new wells and 3 well work-overs within 18 months.

Could somebody sense-check my workings and assumptions, please? Just looking at the benefits to SYN once GoI approval kicks in and it’s immense. These are based on the base case of 4MMcf/d (upside is 6MM) and with Gas Prices at $8.59/MMBtu (corporate presentation suggests $15/MMBtu). Put those figures in instead and Synergia’s 50% share is $16m/year… Appreciate there are 30% decline rates to build in, but there are more wells coming online to negate that.

Bcf – Billion cubic feet – standard unit of measurement for natural gas supply/demand -

1,000,000 MMBtu = 1 Bcf

1000 MMBtu = 1 MMcf

1 MMBtu = 1 McF

Mcf; MMcf; Bcf . :

"Mcf' means one thousand (1,000) Standard Cubic Feet;

"MMcf' means one million (1,000,000) Standard Cubic Feet;

"Bcf' means one billion (1,000,000,000) Standard Cubic Feet.

Gas price($) at Dec 23 = $8.59 per MMBTU

Synergia Targeting 4MMcf/d (base case)

4 MMcf = 4000 MMBtu

$34,360 / Day

$12,541,400 / Year (1.46 Bcf/year)

Synergia 50% share = $6,270,700 / year

Overall P50 = 205 Bcf

Value $1,760,950,000

Https://x.com/aimtrader80/status/1804084613582561715?s=46&t=ipW7IMp6GVgCsYSTs_Wd3g

Twitter user saying Roland is going there in early July 🤞🤞