Member Info for Caledonia

Yeah, thanks from me too.

This is exactly what i was trying to understand when i posed the original question, then we got interestingly distracted with AI!

The CPR makes no mention of Isobel / Elaine or indeed "Southern Development Area" but the notes in the RNS stated its part of greater Sea LIon, but not whether they fell within, Northern, Central or Southern Development Area.

It's important because the 'finds' there are either already accounted for in NPV calculation (maybe why the resource estimate jumped?) or they're not and remain a future and valuable target.

Would be great if someone could ask for it to be explained in the AGM.

Yeah, it really is fascinating, thanks all for your input. I think i'm going to have to go on a course or something to learn how to engage with it.

@LTT - I'm not sure you're right that it can't predict human nature, is it not actually that it is good at that bit , human Nature being everything that is written down, and therefor the 'source' material? A bit like the chartists, they rely on trends that are to a large degree dictated by human nature.

Seems to me it's the black swans that it can't predict, but are actually where nearly all of the risk lies, and while the upper end estimates are plausible, the reality is actually significantly tempered by lots of small unpredictable occurences, for example an accident on the project, stretching timelines, adding cost, reducing returns.

Great discussion, thanks all.

That said, hanging around on internet forums to get your insights can't be much better........... :-)

Thanks Croft,

Can i assume that's output of an AI Large language model? If so, do you actively use it for insight and to what level do you trust it's answers. I'd love to know what you asked it to get this output.

I'm 45 and feel a bit behind the curve with AI. I'm not a luddite, but have a bit of distrust of it.

(Oh, and if it's all your own work i'm really sorry!)

In the Independent Resource Estimate RNS there was a line in Additional notes:

In a change to previous naming conventions, the entirety of the oil deposits in licences PL032 and PL004 are now referred to as Sea Lion. Previously, Rockhopper had referred to Sea Lion separately from the Isobel / Elaine accumulation; that is no longer the case.

In here it's often discussed that theres a lot of upside to Isobel and Elaine, however there's no discussion of this in the report. Should we take that to mean that the likely resources of I&E are included in the Contingent Resource already (maybe where the last growth came from) or is it completely ignored because it's un(der)explored?

I find that re-setting the chart to YTD usually re-sets any gloomy feeling!

Marine Traffic, Vessel Finder and the likes rely on a network of receiving stations to get the AIS (Automatic Identification System) radio signals transmitted by the ship onto the internet. They're on VHF Frequency which is effectively line-of-sight, so if it happens that there isn't a receiving station providing info the service, e.g out of sight then it may look like a ship has gone. In practice it's a bit more than line of sight and on some days when the atmospheric conditions are right it can be a lot further.

The paid-for services also offer 'satellite tracking' which i think uses the LRIT system (Long Range Information & Tracking) mandatory for bigger ships, which uses Satellite communications to transmit Ship ID , position, speed , course etc.

Navitas have for a long time said that Shenandoah was a cornerstone of funding (and therefore FID) for Sealion, and that's now playing-out exactly as they said it would. An sad accident in the Korean Shipyard where Shenandoah FPS was built delayed its completion severely -> delayed Shenandoah first oil -> delays later-stage negotiation for funding of Sealion -> delays FID.

It's all pretty predictable, straight forward, and quite normal, and there is never certanty with big projects be they shipbuilding, financing, or oil field development. There may be other bumps on the way, but for me, it's really clear it's coming and the shifting of a quarter or two is neither here nor there.

I think the Board should be highly commended for how they handled the Arbitration award, effectively making 31M out of nothing and keeping the wolf from the door, which is the major risk for any micro oil explorer (like any of those who've been eaten up by to get Sealion here, on the cusp of development)

There may be other bumps on the way, but for me, it's really clear it's coming and the shifting of a quarter or two is neither here nor there.

I don't mean to be contrarian but....

I welcome the occasional counter-comments that occur, giving an opportunity to reflect on the risks. Whichever way you cut it, this board is overwhelmingly biased towards RKH share price increasing (call that ramping if you like).

I've been in since 2013, and at times assumed that it's all gone. In recent months i've added a lot more (my my meagre standards), and made short term profits, because i've weighed up all i've seen / read and taken a personal view. Without the counter-point that weighing up is less strong.

No doubt M-D irritates people, but for me it provides a counterbalance.

GLA

LTT, thanks very much, really helpful.

LTT are you able to explain what role Deepwater Atlas has in the set-up? I had assumed she was working on Phase 2 drilling and therefor somewhat unrelated to first oil, but your analysis implies otherwise and I'd like to learn.

Cheers

Andrew

Wow, those Copernicus images are brilliant! Thanks DonalB & LTT for the analysis.

Still beavering away with Navitas/Beacon's Sehenandoah FPS. Ocean-tow tugs have left and replaced with anchor handlers probably putting her n final position. Island Victory still there working on hook-up I guess.

Looks like final stages of the installation before the re-commissioning and testing of equipment can start leading to first oil and hopefully onward to Sea Lion FID!

I've always wondered how one knows that they're not the one having the wool pulled over their eyes?!

@blatav is it you or is it us or is it actually both?

Some may say it's more disrespectful to their partners to make public updates. I'd assume they're updating important parties frequently, and in private.

I refuse to call it that!

i've been shipspotting for what seems like an age now but please to see the convoy towing shenandoah fps into position in the field this morning.

this is the lead tug: https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9597850 and it's now adjacent to the island victory a deepwater installation vessel, that i guess is hooking it up to the well(s).

some good news in a ****ty week for the markets.

I thought Google prices were live?

May I ask what platform you guys use that you can see whether there are buyers / sellers at a price?