Member Info for Caledonia

In the absence of any knowledge that would make my estimation of FID guess anything other than Pin the Tail on the Donkey, i'm going to go with my favourite prediction yet - One Legged Pete's 24th November

@ralph2010 what would have been the significance of 3pm?

@MoodyBlue, I think I remember someone saying that there was a reason it could only be €8M, that was due to some rule or another.

@Stevo12, yes, that's a good point so the number of shares eligible will be less than those in issue so 46:1 is the worst case.

Someone mentioned that €8M was the maximum that could be raised by the open offer due to some rule somewhere. Anyone know about that?

@JGoater - thanks for the heads-up on the cam, that's a fun resource.

Stas, thanks for your insights really helping a novice like me.

Can you explain why Buys do not equal Sells? Does it mean that the market makers have 'inventory'? And the uncrossing trade the Market Makers closing out?

Cheers

I tried to calculate what the open offer would entitle us to. From the circular I took the following info

Existing Ordinary Shares: 645,213,765

Number of Open Offer Shares: 13,968,301

645,213,765 / 13,968,301 = 46

1 warrant per 46 shares.

Anybody got a different calculation?

Well I owe you a thanks DonalB, I use Copernicus a lot now its very cool!

Good to learn about the cloud cover too - should have worked that out!

I bet there are a few people in RKH & PANR, they're kinda similar despite being very different plays. I'm way deeper in RKH and not sure whether I shouldn't try and even-up a bit, but i don't really want to reduce RKH exposure till after their Sealion FID, and I've no spare cash to up Pantheon. (I could dump my large qty of 88e, but sadly the loss would be too hard to swallow!)

@DonalB, sounds like you're in both, have you got a view on the relative merits?

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/uk-junior-reveals-next-step-in-assessing-potential-of-alaska-discovery-well/2-1-1873815

Second one tallies much better with this photo. - Thanks SeaHawk.

Good shout, could be this looks more like there's a rig there:

https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=15&lat=69.83541&lng=-148.7645&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=U2FsdGVkX19Z5TSJXs4ZVBuimSJ2YYgjumCSWFqkxbhUpBiPdESNuJCwwiSY%2F3mPr1elrS1sThcl%2Fs1ixuPWXLJwN9Y7MnHabx%2Bkkf3oEt46g2NCgKVZn%2FRMFrhx3wa4&datasetId=S2_L1C_CDAS&fromTime=2025-10-14T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2025-10-14T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=22&dateMode=SINGLE

Good Afternoon All,

During the startup phase of the Shenandoah field in the Gulf of Mexico, a poster on Rockhopper's board pointed out that you could see goings on offshore in near real-time via the European Copernicus Satellite system. And indeed, the board got a jump on the first flaring of Gas there by regularly watching the Copernicus feed.

So, I've found the Dubhe Pad the same way:

https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=13&lat=69.98381&lng=-148.68605&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=U2FsdGVkX1%2Bw%2Bnd1WBllHQJJnI7TiZmnSqsWIMuqy3msx10OQLukB2yfciUmitYf1w1biPWl0jvjDOh1wfN%2F9xAr7cT3Rd7BYhEs4tFLUguafaq%2BWYPpV5uxtRGagt2y&datasetId=S2_L1C_CDAS&fromTime=2025-10-15T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2025-10-15T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30&dateMode=SINGLE

Unfortunately, the satellite images are nowhere near as frequent as closer to the equator, last image being 15th October, so we won't get such a real-time view. I thought it might be interesting to this group nonetheless.

Cheers Andrew

hi guys, i've looked into the warrants on t212 a bit more via questions on the t212 'community'

https://community.**************/t/exercise-warrants/87650/8

i think the answer is disappointing - means that the warrants are dead ducks - cant be exercised and can't be transferred-out. seems they can probably be traded - if there's a buyer, and who knows what their value is.

i will almost certainly want to exercise my warrants and don't want the risk of not being able to so i'm going to transfer my holdings to ii and hopefully itl'll be done before the corporate action happens.

What the maths can't really account for is the investor sentiment that moves the market. Just have a look at what that has done this year - yes, Sea Lion is de-risking day by day, and yes that's worth something tangible, but the growth n share price over this year has been huge part in Investor Sentiment.

I can see where Happy is coming from regarding bare numbers valuation. But the sentiment on top of that is worth so much more.

Are there rules that mean they have to move to the main market?

I wonder if the 'advantages' of main market are real. It *seems* that RKH won't struggle to raise funds, and when oil flow at Sea Lion, that looking for investment may not be much of an issue. On that basis is the lighter touch regulation of AIM not a better place to be?

Thanks SH for the well-reasoned discussion.

I'm going to vote for the resolution, although I do agree with most of your points. However, I don't think we know enough about the discussions with lenders leading up to this (nor should we/will we ever) to know what their stipulations are. Therefor I will have to trust the board, and accept their recommendation.

Although PIs have been their paymasters to date, IIs were always going to have to be involved to provide the money necessary. If i look at what the last few months have delivered in growth, a bit of dilution to get to the next phase seems kinda fair. Afterall, none of my gains have come from my hard work......

And in

2010 ......... 0% chance of getting it out of the ground on our own

2025 ......... x% chance of getting it out the ground thanks to the money raised and partner found.

Fill in your own X - i'm at 85%

I've got BOR and RKH and recently a few WTE, and I do believe BOR and WTE are riding on sentiment, purely for the looming opening up of a new Oil frontier in the Falklands.

RKH is my long hold - Barring a major change in situation i'm in this long term (till Isobell is poked maybe).

BOR is a short term gamble - i plan to sell almost all after RKH/Navitas FID - guessing right now that i'll be happily in profit.

WTE is a total roll of the dice (£500) - I plan to hold them as much as a placeholder for 5 years time as anything else. (that's how i've ended up in RKH in the first place, a roll of the dice that's kept me interested enough to be in a nice position by my standards now)

AIM - its all gambling really, Isn't it?

Https://www.offshore-energy.biz/mysterious-project-books-subsea7-for-2027/

Kinda fits?

I don't think you've missed anything, but worth remembering that Beacon is the Shenandoah operator and Navitas are the money. For Sealion Navitas are the Operator, and that's a different kettle of fish with respect to 3).

Why do you think it'll pull-back?