Member Info for c2645sg

Aqua, please remember the loans have to be repaid, not just the interest. That's where it gets a little more difficult, especially with the bonds, all due in 2022.
It's a bit of a knife-edge, making enough cash to be able to repay those loans, because I am not sure AML can borrow money any other way (to refinance them) right now. If they do what I set out below, then lenders *should* be more willing to lend at lower rates, but we are entering a recession right now.
This year is a write off, which we all know, it all hangs on sales in 2021 (& end of 2020).
I think we all know and agree on this, but it's nice to think it through with figures, so we can quickly appraise the Q2 results and news.

Debt:

68 Million in June, which is payment in kind btw, half cash, half shares. I'd be interested to hear how you think that's going to work, more fundraising?
https://www.ft.com/content/79f611e6-653c-4a30-b581-b66e54cbf231

In March they opened a 100million credit line, see here: https://www.ft.com/content/62064885-1aae-4dae-abac-b3a6420f41c8

This link shows margins are between 12.5 and 13.5%, so way lower than the 30-40%. Therefore 4000 DBXs per year would make a profit of circa 83.2 Million per annum.(using 13% profit margin)
https://www.ft.com/content/18930d7a-432f-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c.
That link also shows they started the bond drawdown of £150 million at 12%.

So all in, that's 318 million of bonds at 12%. That's 38.1 million interest alone, without even thinking about the other £880m debt.

I’ve not looked into all the older debt, but from memory the last bond of circa 150 million is at 6/6.5%. Before that it’s difficult to tell.

Income:
Goldfinger Aston martin sale price is £3.3million per unit:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8487979/First-3-3MILLION-Aston-Martin-DB5-Goldfinger-continuation-car-completed.html
"A quarter of the Goldfinger DB5 Continuation Cars are unsold, meaning you can still order one today"
So let's say a quarter of 25 is 6/7, that's only 17/18 sold £3.3 million = £57 Million turnover, not profit. Let’s assume 30% as RBM suggest, profit of £17.1 million

150 Valkyrie models, deliveries of the £2.5m hypercar, the most expensive road car in British history, will now begin next year.
That's £375 million TURNOVER, not profit, in 2021. Margin @ 30%, profit is £112.5 Million

DBX: Let’s just say for argument...4000 cars x 160k is £640 Million TURNOVER, not profit.
25% profit margin (between my figure and RBM’s for argument sake) which is £160 million profit per annum, up to say £180 mil for extras etc.

The other models are not selling well, and I haven’t done as much homework on them as 2019 was pretty dismal and most cars were sold at a loss, but anyone with info on sales/margin etc, I’d be happy to hear it.

So in a very good 2021, we have profit of 180 + 112.5 + 17.1 = 309.6 Million, plus whatever comes in from DB11 etc.
Debt is around £1 Billion, and needs serviced. This is the problem, bondholders don’t trust AML, and are charging 12% and agreeing to shares/cash for repayment in some kind of warrant? be interested to know if anyone has seen this PIK type of thing before. The same bond holders are trying to sell that debt on, I guess they are nervous.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/aston-martin-bondholders-shaken-by-stirred-up-markets-51587381319

Good morning all,

First of all, please let me assure you I am not short, thinking about gong or short, or indeed even able to short AML.
I want to believe the turnaround story, and AML to survive.

But I also want to discuss real figures, and come to some consensus on everyone's input into what that turnaround story entails. I am sure we would all agree that information is power, being naive and emotional in the stockmarket is a road to ruin (I lesson I learned myself). If you're ahead of the game, you make money, it's that simple.
I've been on BBs sharing information for as log as I can remember, good and bad BBs.
No one learns much when a SP is rising, but we learn quickly when it's falling.
I'll post my homework in the next couple of messages, and would love to hear your thoughts, happy to be shot down in flames for any mistakes/oversights....

RBM. I didn't say I was right, or you were wrong, I politely asked for a link to support your figure of 30-40% margin, that's all.

Misinformation? Is that the same as' I think but have no proof but will post it anyway?'
AMLs profit margin has always been 12.5-13.5%, you can look it up. But with the debt they were losing money on every car sold.

Graham1981, can you tell us all why a company selling 4000 DBXs at a profit of £105M per annum and £1Billion of debt should be valued at 1 or 2 billion GBP please?

RMB, please supply a link for the profit margin on the DBX?

and btw...WG, they had to get 1400 orders by start of August to get that loan, so they have achieved that. 12% though, and the bond holders have been trying to shift that debt on at a discount.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/aston-martin-bondholders-shaken-by-stirred-up-markets-51587381319

AML have said there are 2000 orders, AML said that themselves. Profit margin is between 12.5 and 13.5%.
£158000 x 2000 = 316 million
13% of that is 41 million profit, maybe slightly more for add-ons etc.
Debt is around £1 BILLION right now, so the profit doesn't even cover the interest cost on the debt. in fact, nowhere close.
Wonder what the cash is at?

GOLDMAN cuts ASTON MARTIN price target to 32 (35) pence - 'SELL'

Rolls Royce has £4 billion in cash, and banks standing by for another £2 billion should they need it. Prudent.
How much cash do AML have? Where are they going to borrow from when it runs out?
If this drops 1-2% every day, even the old faithful at 30p will be getting nervous.

All FTSE stocks go into auction at midday.

The SP was £1.70 ish in lockdown, there is no way the whole world will go back to that scenario, therefore I think low £2's is great value for a company with loads of cash in the bank.
Limited downside, huge upside, I see fair value of around £3 short term.

On the plus side, you know the shorters are getting desperate when they telegraph it.
Hanging around a BB all day every day, recommending and agreeing with each other.
Usually means there will be an uptick in SP fairly soon.
I'm back in at 213p today.

Day traders? Pretty much everyone on here has admitted to trading AML, numerous times.

Rox, it doesn't actually matter what you bought them for, you are still 700 quid better off.
Think about it, if you had not sold some at 49p, you would be on a bigger loss from 52p down to 47p!

Can't post link for some reason, google it though, site is "Insidermedia"

"A European investment group, which also holds shares in the likes of Morgan Motor Company and Jacuzzi, has lowered its stake in Aston Martin.

Investindustrial Advisors, which is registered in London, now has a holding of 9.66 per cent in the Warwickshire-headquartered listed company.

It had previously held a 10.99 per cent stake in the luxury car maker.

The company holds the shares on behalf of Prestige Motor Holdings and Strategic European Investment Group."

Probable reason for today's fall:
https://www.insidermedia.com/news/midlands/investment-group-lowers-stake-in-aston-martin

Paul, that's cool, but I aint presuming yours was an 'emotional' trade just because it's different to mine.
I see a lot more down days for the ftse, now that furlough is ending, the stuff is about to really hit the fan.
I'll be back her on results day, we can see then who made the right call.
Good luck to you, everyone is different.... :)

No.1 want more people to sell to get average down !
How can I average down if i have sold? Avering down means holding, and averaging down

No.2 sold out with profit and want back in at lower price
In my post I said I'd keep close eyes on this and see what the Q2 results bring.

No.3 genuine private investor that just wants to tell everyone how much they won or lost with just keeping in touch on a board that they no longer hold a share in
I didn;t say how much I had won or lost, I just said I was protecting my profit.