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https://www.planetf1.com/news/toto-wolff-budget-cap-stubborn-position/

“I think what we can demonstrate is very easy, our energy costs in Brackley have gone up from £2.5m to £6.5m, our freight costs in a similar way, I think it’s two to six. Black and white, you can follow that on the accounts, look at it in the P&L [profit and loss],” he explained.

Energy costs have TRIPLED, and so has shipping.
AML’s Q2 results should be 'interesting'

Q1 results reminder.

Total Liabilities are now £2.34 bil., up £236 mil.
Equity down £210 mil. to £554 mil
Cash has dropped by £172 mil. to £404 mil
Debt is up £234m From £723m to 957m
Market cap is £833M, Net debt is 957M

Sports/GT car sales are half what they were in 2019 (pre-pandemic)
DBX sales down 44% from Q1 2021.
Americas sales down 16%
APAC sales down 26% (Ferrari sales were UP in APAC, so no excuses)
The loss before tax was £113m (Q1 2021: £42m)
Wholesales down 14%.
Cash: £404, but £331m of that is customer deposits. Dangerous if people start asking for deposits back as Valkyrie STILL doesn’t work.
Interest expenses up from £171m to £195m per annum
D&A £315-330m.

That means targets of 10k cars sales and EBITDA of £500m, subtract £195m, subtract £320m.
Even if AML hit Stroll’s ridiculous target of 10,000 sales in 2024/25, they still make a £15m loss.

£400m cash left.
Cash burn of £225m this year at least,
A court case which they could lose £150m +
The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.
The interest costs are £195m per year, with the pound’s grim prospects meaning $ denominated debt grows worse daily...

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/05/31/the-aston-martin-share-price-is-by-down-two-thirds-is-this-a-recovery-play/

None of them even mention the Nebula court case, which will mean at least another £150m loss.

https://invezz.com/news/2022/06/02/aston-martin-share-price-has-crashed-has-aml-become-a-bargain/

And the cash burn is closer to £3m per week.
That's why the market has utterly hammered it.

Net debt was £385m when Stroll used other people's money to buy AML.L
Try 150% increase in debt in just over 2 years.
£385m to £1bn.
Charlatan.org/DoubleYourMoneyInBondsInstead.

My guess is a crypto problem.
Something big will blow for sure, contagion.

The debt was dreadful as soon as it was taken on board, it deteriorates daily.
AML needed everything to go their way. Covid, Ukraine war, inflation, recession, china's zero covid policy etc make it nearly impossible to survive.

Carpy can make as many lists as he wants, the company is a dead man walking, the SP tells you all yo need to know.

Where have all the new LTHs gone from last week?
BTHFATH etc.

PS, the party only really starts when the ECB and Fed stop printing money and reduce their balance sheets. Wait til you see what a lack of liquidity does to markets. It'll be like taking heroin from an addict.
June for the Fed, and the ECB are saying July now I think.

They certainly can't keep printing money when inflation is 8.1%, make that 10% in 2/3 months.
Like I said, the EU is in real trouble, Putin has highlighted their utter incompetence perfectly.

Same as AML, Italy are just treading water, their debt rises every single month. ECB keeping Italy afloat.
So Putin has driven the ECB between a rock and a hard place. And the Fed/UK too.
Inflation affects everyone, so they MUST raise rates, which means recession. as there is no growth.

The Italian public expenditure is 70 billion a month.
The Italian Treasury has only 67 bn in cash (as of December 31). Source : Bank of Italy report on debt, published on February 15.

Watch the oil price rise now. How long before inflation hits double figures?

I would never have bought it.

The only way I can see it working is cash raise or insolvency and take it private.
At least it won't have the debt dragging it down, or Stroll making promises he can't keep, 10,000 sales, haha.
Even selling 12000 cars would not generate a profit now.

Q2 results will be the worst yet, China lockdowns means very few (if any) sales, and the debt interest payable in Q2 too.

Higher inflation than presumed in the EU, and they can't raise rates as Italy till fold like a pack of cards. it's going to get messy, and Putin is rubbing his hands with glee. The EU is in real trouble now.

It's good for the balance sheet that they have 2 factories with all those overheads when they only need one?
Brilliant logic.

Voirlich, what does 'Order book full' actually mean?
It means nothing, the factory is capable of 14,000 cars per year and they are currently lucky to be churning out 6,000.

Do let us know what you mean by a full order book....

It's all mumbo jumbo.
Nothing else matters except the fundamentals.

Cash raise or bankruptcy, what's it to be Lawrence?

£400m cash left.
Cash burn of £225m this year at least,
A court case which they could lose £150m +
The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.
The interest costs are £195m per year, with the pound’s grim prospects meaning $ denominated debt grows worse daily...

Facts eh?

1. DBX straight 6 ready for sale into Chinese Market when lockdowns are lifted.

It was released in Q1(before the lockdowns) and DBX sales were DOWN 44%.

2. DBX707 now in production, orders are 60% up on this time last year!

Yeah like anyone believes Stroll hyperbole any more.

3. Vantage V12...total sellout of 333 cars with basic price of £265K before add-ons.

It has awful reviews.

4. Vantage V12 roadster...this has not yet been confirmed but is expected.

Therefore walking back on the promise of a limited run of 333

5. Valkyrie in production and being delivered to customers...price £2.5 million basic!

The Valkyrie is one of the reasons the company are nearly bankrupt, it’s definitely been a loss making car overall. AMR are STILL sending out engineers to fix customer cars.

6. Sports/GT to be totally reworked and ready for early 2023.

Moers stated H2 2023, stop lying.
Each new car’s design costs £200m each.

7. Valhalla...limited edition of roughly 900 priced at basic of £700K due late 2023.

Stop lying, 2024

8. Mid-engine vanquish... a core model due for release 2024.

Stop lying, 2025

9. More orders coming in for AM helicopter.

Hahahaha. How much profit do they make from this? It’s not even mentioned in the results.

10 AM motor bikes (Superbikes) recently started being delivered. 100 bikes priced at £108K each.

Again not mentioned in the results: 10m income but the profit margin is low, so let’s say 3m profit at the most. Interest is £195m per year alone.

11. Aston Martin condominiums in Miami due for completion end of this year. 391 condos on sale now, priced at between £4.2 million and £59million each! The average price is £18m!!!

How much profit though? No-one knows, not mentioned in results, I wonder why….

12. Lawrence Stroll has promised a rolling programme of specials moving forward, which all demand premium prices.
Also, please note that starting with the DBX707, all cars will have at least a 40% profit margin and some will be as high as 50%. Prior to Lawrence taking control the margin was only about 20%.

All of which is eaten up by high inflation, raw materials doubling and supply chain issues.
Do you not remember the insider ‘ T4-Racer' saying Gaydon is full of half finished cars because they are missing so many parts missing?

EG68 - Who knows whether AML plan to buy back shares, but if they do, then the £11m+ that they have voted through would be worth over £74m at today's price. This would delfinitely have a positive effect on the SP. Maybe if they somehow made their intent known to the shorters, they would get out before they lost out...who knows.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/aston-martin-lagonda/rns/result-of-agm/202105251300077657Z/
The resolution to buy back shares was voted for in the 2021 AGM too, it’s every year.
Buying back shares, don't make me laugh, haha.

I guess it's just another thing to add to the list...

AML to pay Merc £185m by early 2023, shares at £12.46 and cash for the shortfall for anything under that.
Cash burn of £200m this year at least,
A court case which they could lose £150m +
The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.
The interest costs are £195m per year

Maybe now people can start to understand why it's cash raise or bankruptcy.
I don't just make it up for the fun of it. Stroll got us here single handedly.
And only 6% voted against hime to be re-elected chairman.

The reason the SP is in freefall because of insolvency risk. ie not having enough cash to pay the debt interest.
And you want to take 100m from the 400m cash pile and buyback shares?
Stunning idea....

Cash burn of £200m this year at least,
A court case which they could lose £150m +
The need to design new cars for 2023 which cost around £200m each.
The interest costs are £195m per year