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Many thanks for your posts on Sunday. A great summay of the issues and I can't really argue with any of it. I'm encouraged by todays announcment, it strikes me that Alan Branch is having a positive impact. Nice to get an update so soon after the intial announcement. I still have no clue as to when we may learn about what jorc standard resources we have. Any withthe market as it is crhl are probably not that clear either. It will obviously depend on what the metal markets are doing. I believe with TL that they may well have intended to release jorc figures but were prevented from doing so becuase the price dropped out of the iron ore prices. I get the feeling that the margins were tight, so the new strategy is to prove up as much as possible until they have resources at a level that will withstand market fluctuations. Alternatively, iron ore prices may rise to the point at which they can strike an off-take agrrement for the whole lot ? We've not really discussed how the resources might be sold before. It appears to me that this may dictate when we get news. What do we think ? Sold via spot pricing, quarterly prices or a job lot off-take. We're in a different position to the big boys because we're talking about relativy small tonnages. Gla, Bziz
Some great posts there Izzy, thanks. I'm nearly at the point of being comfortable with my understanding of our current position and future options. I'll posy my thought tommorow. Two final questions before I do though. Any idea when they surrendered the 800,000 tonnes licence ? and when it was originally granted ? And on a personal note, and please feel free to tell me to mind my own, you post some great stuff on this board, admitedly not always as balanced as i would like, but you clearly put in a lot off effort. Why does this appear to be the only share in your portfolio that you post about ? Thanks again, Bziz.
Interesting posts both, thanks. Izzy I agree with many of you points. However, i would say that my expectation of when news on TL might come was set by management in various RNS's. May be i misread them and what they really said was "we will release snippets of news over a number of months but we aren't sure when we'll release enough information to be able to put a price on the deposts". Can I ask why you are so confident that the deposits are economic ? And at what price do the cease to be economiv ? It seems to me that there's still not enough information to have confidence. Costs can vary significantly, for example we know there's some infrastructure and equipment there but is it sufficient for the potential operation. What is the abbundance and distribution of any dso, are there some large homogenous deposis of dso grade that is relatively easy to get at or is it scattered (as you can tell i'm no geologist so this probably isn't the correct terminology lol) How much of the deposit that is less than dso grade is accessible to the extent that is economically viable to beneficate ? Benefication looks energy intensive to me so can't be cheap. Lots of questions which need answering before i can share your confidence. Must admit to playing devils advocate here a tad, but there must be potential investors looking in with similar questions. As always, GLA, Bziz
Good point about PI's. Creat groups strategy has never been short term as I understand it. However, how many of the big institutions that hold bought below today's price ? and whilst they might be focussing on the longer term they still need their investments to be giving some sort of return in the interim. I can't recall the exact detail, but didn't one of the big backers take up Creat groups offer (essentially underwritten) of cashing in their shares at 6.5p recently ? This tells me that they were none too impressed with the sp performance and perhaps not convinced about the long term plan ? Re the economic waters, you could be right. However, even if releasing good TL results in the current climate wouldn't get the sp moving as much as it might of, it would still help to underpin the sp and bring about some transparency as to the value of the company. I wonder whether the recent massive drop in the price of ore to $116 spooked crhl to the extent that they realise that if they started mining and we had a similar price drop then it would not be economically viable to continue. Isn't this what happened to ZZ ? and this is why they are firming up on other resources to off set the risk. We could do with CF on the iii board plugging in some figures into his model to get an idea of what point TL might not be worth doing.
Indeed, I would tend to agree that short term this is a good buying opportunity based purely on the gap between what our galaxy stake is worth and our current sp. Good chance of making 50% return in no time if you can get a decent spread. Looking longer ahead, I think our problem is that the market now has no idea when to expect a decent return. TL results are ridiculously over due, to the extent that some people may have trouble believing any time scales given by management on future announcements. Great news that additional exploration is under way, but again no time scales on completion/announcement of results. I bought in here largely on the strength of potential news to come. It hasn't come, and management has done bug.er all to support the share price. With the benefit of heindsight I would have brought into galaxy direct. I'm beginning to wonder whether the exploration is just a smoke screen to entice investors and help reduce any risk to Creat group associated with investments made via it's holding company (CRHL). Creat group aren't supporting CRHL they are CRHL ! Sorry to be so negative, just p.ssed off that I got the TA wrong 9 months ago, and management haven't delivered. As I said, great short term buying opportunity ! GLA Bziz. p.s. Robet, nice to think about future prospects, but your money could be elsewhere making some profit. I know it's a warzone out there but there's still money to be made if you pick the right companies.
Good time to release TL reseults ? Looks to me like TL margins may be so tight that Crhl needs to reduce the risk by firming up other resources. May be waiting a very long time for any mining news. Lets hopd that we get something positive on the aquisitions front. Gla Bziz http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3E7MH07N20111117
242 tonnes is tantalum. 31,000 is spodumene. Still over 50% more than was shippied in july but i'm not sue we can draw any conclusions especially as a shipment was due in september and has obviously been delayed until december. Still holding, locked in, but unlike Robet not happy about it ! Gla, Bziz
Shame that it doesn't seem to be enough to convince people to buy in here. Our stake in Galaxy must be worth >25% of our current MC. Question, if you weren't already invested would you buy in here now ? Personally I would be waiting for news on TL. It's been so long now that I find myself questioning whether in this case no news might actually be bad news, or ateast nog the news that se had hoped for. Gla, Bziz
I'd listened to myself back in May "Oh dear, galaxy in free fall. Support lost and heading for 50cents. Our current holding is worth half our market cap, so looking at sub 2p soon without cracking tenth legion results. To average down or cut my losses ?" Live a learn eh lol !
Surely this has got to get moving north soon. A good lesson on AIM stocks this one. Move north on news if good south on no news. This one has moved so far south it wouldn't look out of place in a rookery of penguins ! Another 250k trade I see. Diector off loading more for his daughters birthday Sniffer ? GLA
Just find it strange that one of the directors of this multi million pound company is so in need of 12k that he is prepared to send a negative message to the market, particularly given the sp performance and the fact that we're waiting for supposedly good news wbich he is probay ready privey to. Good news on Galaxy. Plugging away regardless. Exciting times ahead, shame the sp seems so stubborn. Lets hope they're well protected from future hurricanes and floods ! Thanks Bziz
Hi Izy what's your thoughts on the director sells ? Never a good thing even if small volume. Thanks Bziz
Like evo and most others I am less yhan impressed by the share price a d the efforts of management to support it. However, my holding has now been reduced to the point where there is little value in selling. I'm locked in. I'd be interested to hear the boards view on what is to stop creat throwing in the towel ? Crhl have been messing about on TL for so long that I can't believe that they don't know what they have and what it's worth. I get the feeling that the delay is intentional. Yes shocking time to release news but is there something else going on re crhl as an investment vehicle? Good time to pick up a bargain company or two !
Delays so many and so long that it 's difficult not to question the competance of the management. I know others will say all evidence suggests we have good resource, great backing blah blah, but the fact remains if results had been available when management first stated then I like others wouldn't now need over 100% rise just to break even !
So with TL results due anytime now, hands up who's nervous ? The pessimist in me thinks that I'll have to be patient a little longer to break even let alone make a profit. Must admit I'm a little worried that the 'market' hasn't started buying into this yet. News usually leaks at least a few days before release. GLA, Bziz
Apologies, google have not accounted for the new shares in galaxy when calculating market cap. Our current holding is worth close to £21m. So we're not playing catch up as much as i first thought. Long term i have great faith in galaxy. They're suffering from market being down on commods. Dillution is painful and business plan is not clear to all. However, it seems clear that they are positioning themselves to take advantage of what will be a very rapidly moving demand for Li powered vehicles. Ultimately this will obviously be to the benefit of crhl, but this has now for me become a "put in the drawer and come back in 12 months" share. Of course if TL results are good and the capex financing and potential profit are clear then we could disconect from the galaxy sp very quickly. Personally i now need 100% rise to break even, so realistically it may take more than good TL results for me to see a profit. aqusitions funded by creat grp ? Gla Bziz
Oh dear, galaxy in free fall. Support lost and heading for 50cents. Our current holding is worth half our market cap, so looking at sub 2p soon without cracking tenth legion results. To average down or cut my losses ? Currently worst performing share i've ever held. Will tenth legion save us ? Evidence says yes but I for one am struggling to keep the faith. Gla, bziz
Interesting penultimate paragraph on todays galaxy share issue paperwork ! As previously discussed, clearly a good investment for creat. Galaxy mean business ! http://www.galaxyresources.com.au/documents/GXY-CleansingNotice27_04_11.pdf Thanks goes to those on hotcopper forum for spotting this.
Courtesy of tatoo on iii www.creatgroup.com/xinwen/english/ground1.asp Certainly gives me confidence.
Snap ! However, if what we believe the potential value to be comes to fruition then it's irrelevant in the short term whether the sp stays still for a while or even drops well below 4p. Yes the mm's are sure to play games but true value will out in the end ! Gla and thanks for some great posts.