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drahi interestingly making that move himself, getting out of sothebys which makes more money with the fed pumping so much money and pumping assets like nfts, art, watches, classic cars etc that have roofed in value and hes now smart enough to move from that stuff to the great value that bt is and never joined the growth asset bubble.
Also todays bank of england rise together with investors re positioning for 2022. Today especially after bofe and listening to some really good analysts and commentators that were always bullish the tech sector. Many have just starting saying its time to buy inflation proof value, that dont care if int rates are upto 3 per cent (above 3 per cent and thats a different ball game).
But the conditions are ripe now for bt share price to absolutely take off on just its fundamentals and future inflation proofing and future cash flows from its investment.
just quick update on 2022 bt option pricing.
Volatility levels remain high and implied vol accordingly remains high. However since the denial of drahi doing a full takeover, call options have come off a bit, but thats mainly due to spot (bt share price falling), with the implied vol levels remaining heightened, due to still the uncertainty of bt next few months.
feb 180 are 7p/10p i.e cost 10p for the right to buy bt at 180 on 18th feb
feb 190s are 3.5/7.5p
mar 200 are 5/7p
apr 200 are 6/8p
for your info only on deciding what product to use if bullish bt.
It would be quite interesting if someone put a formal bid in for bt tomorrow as there are lots of options on the upside and shorts of options, would be screaming to buy them back and ramping price even higher. It wont happen but if it did some bidder could have fun and games.
hi Ally
Yeah do expect lots of volume tomorrow especially in bt as lot of options traded for 17 dec in bt specifically because of the drahi 6mth expiry ending from his first purchase and mkt traded lot of bt options. So think another choppy day as the flows go through.
funny enough we are coming up to bt monthly expiry date on options and has people bought lot of 160 / 170/ 180 calls, maybe they needing to sell into the strikes to realise their profit. A drop for month of november near expiry and on expiry date happened too.
Just announced
sec to propose tougher disclosure rules for swaps in building large equity positions in big public companies, which is being suggested draghi used in the press to build his stake in bt. Be interesting if uk regulators follow suit.
We know these shares are extremely undervalued and thats why all the take over speculation and drahi investment has been made. I just think uk pension funds should be re weighting their portfolios to more uk assets and reduce in us growth (tech), that alone will start to realise the cheap uk stock market valuations.
Todays news imho was brilliant. Clearly bt management on way to deliver fantastic future cash profits with the recent operational performance happening. Having altice on board as shareholder keeping the board on their toes, will help this share price reach its full potential in 5 years, which is clearly £5 to £7 with a annual 30p dividend payout to boot with profit and cashflow projections by then.
For me fill your boots at any share price under 180/190.
Today was pure technical shaking out short term takeover over punters.
But if altice / drahi is in at 185p avge, im very happy holding my avge price in at 143p and can clearly see the opportunites and minimum price o £5 in 5 years and thats on very conservative future p/e , dividend yield, cashflow ratios.
I reckon deutsche would want at least 2.50 / 3.00 minimum for their shareholding and even then i believe that may not be enough. So for drahi to get another 12 per cent, hed probably be better paying up to 2/2.50 in the mkt for that additional stake.
If he deutsche did agree to sell its stake to drahi at say 2.50, the mkt price would almost certainly trade up there, otherwise there would be a natural arbitrage.
As a bt shareholder and i certainly intend to remain one for next 10 years. I absolutely do not want a bid that is successful as these shares are the best long term investment for a big blue chip for next 10 years on compound dividend accrual over that time and the mkt prices the shares accordingly over time.
However, for me with all this volatility if you are looking for a takeover play, just go buy some call options which are cheap, saves you being chopped around in this volatile mkt. .
i.e april 200 calls cost 5p
mat 200 calls cost 4.25 p
december expiry options for bt quite expensive to avge volatillity pricing level, especially the calls, so suspect when we clear the expirys today, to expect good headwind for higher bt share price over coming weeks.