Member Info for ButlerMan

Howezap, I read it as the ‘decision ‘ being whether or not AA buy it. And if they buy it, AA develop it. If they don’t buy it, another big miner will, and they, themselves, will develop it. In this context, the ‘when’ refers to the timescale to sell it - very quickly if AA take it, after being given first refusal, or longer if they don’t take it, and it goes for sale on the open market. I don’t doubt that AA have the money, resources and capability to develop it themselves, if they take it.
That’s my interpretation of the statement anyway. Not saying you are incorrect - it’s just a different meaning from the words that I took.

The reason for the XTR rise today was the announcement that the first gold had been poured at their Fairbride operation in Africa - so in a month or two they should see circa £500k a month from their gold production in Africa. That then funds any continued exploration costs for copper. Lovely position to be in : gold producer and copper explorer

Howezap, it would also be good to understand what there hasn’t been a notice of AGM date published yet.

Andrew - maybe the market realises that we are now a gold producer. Manica revenue, if it is what we lead to believe, would surely put a floor on the share price?

I guess it’s possible that this photograph is a few months old, and all but the fill-in holes and what Colin said about Footrot etc is just what is left to do now? I agree though, we are being kept in the dark - for whatever reason. My hope is that Colin is playing his cards close to his chest for a a very good reason.

Howezap - I think the location is : 33°51'48"S 149°42'37"E

With a view to the SE.
Several reasons for this. If you look closely at the picture, there is a hint of a structure, mid way across the picture, in front of the trees, above the white trailer. There is a corresponding structure near the little lake ( to the SE of this pin location, behind the power lines). Also note the lone (quite large) tree directly above the pickup truck. Again this can be seen from this pin location. The forests behind the power lines are also in the right relative locations.

So, slightly south of your suggested location, but nevertheless a considerable step out drill location from the published drill locations. I’m hoping this is good news, as a previous drill intersected a separate mineralisation at depth to the east of Ascot, which I’ve always considered to be evidence of another porphyry. ( I can’t recall which hole this was, but I noted at the time that is was strange to find new mineralisation at near the end of the hole, away from the area they were targeting). Them now drilling at a relatively shallow angle around the same location to the east could be an attempt to intersect this higher up and determine if there is indeed another porphyry. Could be excellent news.

Thanks Iceberg.

Iceberg - I’m convinced that RC will be big enough to attract a reasonable (or good) offer - either from AA or another source, and it’s just a matter of time. We just don’t know the size of RC nor whether there are other porphyries, besides Ascot ( probably). I’d be interested to know if you have a similar view - and that it’s just a matter of both time and quantification of ‘what it is worth’ to a mining Co. So a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’! Your view would be much appreciated.

Howezap, Good sleuthing! I’d put it SW of your pin for two reasons. The camera tends to foreshorten distance, so I suspect the power line is further away than your pin. Also the area around the pad is clear from shrubs for some distance in all directions. There is a clear area SW of the pin that meets these observations.

Thanks for the views. Consensus is no earlier than Q1 2023, and possibly later in 2023 - so plenty of time to add to my holding, then!

Any thoughts, anyone, on the timescales now for putting Racecourse up for sale?

Comms, not ‘comma’

I share the frustration about lack of comma, given the expectation built around the May / June date. But the way I look at it is this. ( My, unscientific assessments, based on my interpretations of the RNSs). At worst, even if we fall short of 2Mt, we must have in the region of 1.5Mt at Racecourse alone. So even if AA don’t want it, someone will - it’s location, close to power and transport, in a friendly mining country, means that it is very improbable it won’t sell. So, at very worst, say 10p a share. Then let’s consider the potential upside from this. Say a 50% probability of RC alone getting to 2Mt. Then we have Ascot. Say a 50% probability of 1Mt Cu equiv, and maybe a 30% probability of Ascot making 2Mt+. Then Footrot - 5% probability of 1Mt? And who knows if we touch on some other porphyries - there was a drill earlier in ph 2 ( I forget which) that appeared to intersect another porphyry at depth - to the east. Then with the Fairbride revenue, we have good funds coming in - little chance of dilution. So all in all, I see a real probability of the share price at least doubling in the next few months, with the possibility of an even greater upside. This has got to be one of the safest bets on AIM at the moment. So, I’m sticking around, and not selling a single share, until Colin takes us to the end game. Would I prefer this to be in the next couple of months? Of course I would - but if this takes to end ‘22, early ‘23, it will still have been worth waiting for.

Unless some connected people are quietly accumulating shares in the background.

We are all a bit anxious…. But the way I look at it is -

1. Empress revenue will flow by July, with increasing throughput as the plant settles in Aug.
This alone will support the current share price.

2. Even if RC didn’t come in at 2Mt, and was a bit short, it’s still a massive ore body, so AA could still buy it. If they didn’t, I’m pretty sure others would be interested (Chinese?).

So, to me, there appears to be very little downside risk to this share now, with a lot of potential upside. How much? Nobody knows for sure, but once news comes out, it will start to fly. Any short term fall is just due to MM shenanigans- they only make money when there is volume, and any dearth of news just gives them the opportunity to adjust the price in an attempt to create a market. That said, of course I’m frustrated. But am I worried - no, I’m not.

I, for one, would really appreciate Iceberg’s views on the latest RNS. His insights to date have been pretty spot on!

All makes sense, Howezap. So, if I’m reading your theory correctly, we should see a 2Mt JORC at Racecourse. That leaves Ascot…. Could the current drilling conclude that there is another 2Mt there? And if so, at what point will it - or could it be declared?

There are a few posters on here that are convinced that this share is sinking, and that those of us LTHs that have done lots of research are destined for big losses. I’d really encourage those who are convinced that this share is going to sink, to take out a big short - that way they can really clean up, when the share really drops.

Rick, the recent drill results are due to them testing the edges of both Racecourse and Ascot. So not surprising they aren’t great. The drills into the core of Racecourse and the preliminary ones into Ascot show there is lot of copper ore and potentially some gold at Ascot. Us LTHs, having done our research, expect somewhere north of 2m tonnes of copper equivalent to be declared. This could come soon, and when it does the share will rerate. Anyone holding a leveraged short at this time could lose a lot of money. Your choice, but it isn’t a risk I’d be happy to take.

‘Manica’. Sorry…. I hate auto correct…