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LW, it may be the case that even with low grades in between RC and Ascot, digging a single pit would be more productive than having 2 separate pits, for the reasons I have given below. So grades that weren’t economic if in one of the standalone pits, may become economic if they are dug out as part of a single pit. Because you’d then not have two unproductive facings on either side of the area in between the 2 stand-alone pits. Logically this would be so, but I’d guess it’s all down to the grades in between RC and Ascot, when it comes to pit design. I wonder then if the Ascot MRE will be issued as a standalone MRE - in which case maybe 100-200kt of cu eq, or whether this MRE will now be issued as an extension to RC, with the previously uneconomic area in between now becoming economic. In which case the MRE could be considerably larger.

Let’s assume there are 2 pits, square, and with sides x. So 8x of facings. A single pit joined up, will only have 6x of facings. Where the previously unproductive ore between the 2 pits is now productive and is dug out economically. With 2 pits you have 2x of gradients/facings to form ( unproductive ore in between) and this costs more than a single (longer) pit. That’s my take, anyway, Cygnus.

The half year report (30 Sept) stated : ‘ Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022’. So this MRE is due imminently!

Also Q3 gold revenues- which there has been much conjecture around.

So, news in the run up to Christmas, probably, as I can’t see anything being published between Christmas and New Year.

Dare I start to dream that sentiment is turning on XTR? Would be great to see a small SP rise even before Ascot MRE and FB income RNSs.

I like your thinking Andrew. And with FB revenue coming in now, there would have been the money to fund a ph3 drill programme. So the fact they aren’t doing it says loads.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8207040-sunday-roast-featuring-robin-brundle-executive-chairman-of-technology-minerals-lse-tm1-ben-t

XTR mentioned in todays Roast at 34:50.

Let’s look at the worst than could happen (in my opinion)

Current market cap is £18m. This is supported by Manica revenue alone come early ‘23! So, even if we could only sell Racecourse as a ‘porphyry prospect’ for someone else to drill out further, based on our discoveries to date, for £40m, then we are looking at a SP x3 from where we are at now!
I don’t know enough to challenge Steve’s paper. But even if he is correct, the SP surely has more upside than downside now. And, in my opinion, the current SP represents a great buying opportunity for anyone having sold out on the way down. (Maybe Steve will buy back in again?)

Regardless of the merits, or not, of Steve’s paper, I think we need to wait for the mining study/ pit model to be released to determine whether or not Steve is correct. I doubt this can be brought forward, so we won’t know until Jan/Feb. In the meantime we know Manica gold revenues are ramping up, and once we get to full commercial production shortly, this will suppprt a SP of 2-3p on its own. (I don’t think Q2 Gold figures will be that encouraging, as the plant was still being charged). So, maybe a rough few weeks SP wise, but to my mind, even if Racecourse isn’t viable (and that has yet to be proven by the pit model) it has got to settle around 3p by Jan/Feb. And possibly a lot higher if the pit model proves it is commercial. So, in my opinion, the SP has limited downside from here, if I look at it over a 2 month period. Volatility May force it down in the next week or two, but I’m comfortable holding, and waiting for the pit model.

Andrew’s research earlier today revealed that Bushranger at 1.1MT is the 9th largest copper discovery in the last 10 years - in the world! What a missed opportunity from a PR viewpoint! If this had been front and centre in the RNS and Colin’s podcast, then the SP may not have sunk so low - even with the disappointment of not making 2MT. Andrew - you should volunteer to take on the PR for XTR!

Now that I’ve had time to reflect on this week’s events, I really don’t feel too distraught. I was clearly very disappointed that we didn’t get closer to Colin’s oft touted 2Mt, but we have 1.1Mt, accessible by open pit, in a very friendly mining country, close to power and infrastructure. With higher grade near the surface. I know the economics can’t be fully determined until the open pit model is released, but with the information we have, and even before Ascot, this share has been considerably de-risked, in my opinion. Sentiment may remain low, for some time, keeping the share price low, as result of the expectation disappointment, but the SP will surely recover over time, as the pit model is released and a buyer is found. So, now this is a medium to long term hold, for me ( 3 - 9 months). I won’t be buying more, as I’m quite heavily invested, but I won’t be selling either.

Which ones on the Lachlan Fold, BCB? I’d be interested in having a look at them, as I like Australia as a mining friendly country.

Given the low trade volume here, am very surprised you got any quote for such a large purchase!

Andrew - I have the same fear of trading as you! I’m in it to the endgame, whatever way the cookie crumbles.

It’s my own fault for averaging up Jan-Jun this year, as good news flowed in. So my average now is 5.5p. I just want the SP to recover to what I bought in at, + say 20%. If this was achieved by releasing Manica gold figures and/or the MREs, then I’d be more comfortable holding on for several months for the announcement of a sale of Bushranger. But I’m feeling nervous at being under water, and would really appreciate the SP improving a tad.

I’m with Fidelity for my ISA. I have holdings in a number of shares. If I don’t have sufficient cash in my ISA balance, Fidelity sell a small number of shares to pay for my management fees. These are often in the 10-50 share range, depending on the price of the particular stock held. So my assumption has always been that share sales of 1-50 on most shares are management fee transactions. I may be wrong, but it’s my theory anyway.

Good point G600. Also, a reason for Colin not declaring that negotiations are in progress, may be that he wants to avoid short term speculators trading the shares should this news be released, and potentially make a lot of money in a short period of time. Maybe he has the interests of us LTHs at heart, and would prefer to reveal a finalised deal in its entirely. That way LTHs only benefit.

Agree with you Andrew. The worrying thing I took from the mid week Roast was that Projects in Zambia were mentioned when Colin spoke about XTR - this implies they are looking at buying something there. Depending on the timing of negotiations there (and these may not be in Colin’s control) XTR may need to fund these before the BR sale. If this is the case, let’s hope there is sufficient money in the Treasury from FB etc to fund this, without a raise.

Howzap, I wouldn’t mind waiting to prove the resources up further if the share price was 6-7p now, but I would be worried about it falling further in the meantime whilst waiting for further exploration. So I’d really like to see the share price recover to 6p+ in the short term, with the MRE or African Gold results. I’ve been underwater for a while now, and would to like to see my original investment achieved, before I was asked to wait several months longer.

Does anyone know if there is any connection between Green Lithium and Alkemy? Or if it just coincidence that GL is opening plant supplying the same output (lithium hydroxide) as Alkemy in the same area?

If negotiations are going on in the background, which most of us hope is the case, then I’m not hopeful of JORC/ MRE figures being released until after AA decide formally whether to make an offer or withdraw. So, personally, I’ll try not to get too worked up by nothing coming on a RNS on this for another 4-6 weeks. That said, a RNS on the Q3 gold production, soon, would be very welcome - as it (hopefully) would show FB on the path to full production in a matter of weeks, now. If that were to be the case, then we could see a reasonable increase in SP whilst we wait for the Bushranger RNS. And that would steady my nerves!