Member Info for ButlerMan

Excuse my limited caution. But I can’t see why a loan of £216m enhances the share price by some of the numbers in various posts on this forum. Sure £216m is banked, and used to build the plant. But equally on the books is a debt for £216m that has to be paid back (with interest). This isn’t £216m of revenue, but a loan. So how it, in itself, be booked as ‘revenue’? Of course that fact that the loan is received and the plant will be built will be a confidence boost for the company’s prospects, and this will add some value to the SP, but - I believe- no where as near some of the figures being quoted here. I do think ALK is going to do well, but more in the medium term, as the plant is built and contracts secured for they to supply Lithium Hydroxide. I am a holder here, and will add more as milestones are met, as I see this as great prospect. Just not the x4 or x5 in SP in a few months. Please correct me if my understanding of the funding is incorrect.

Late trade reported - for a trade placed at 8:36 am. £46k! At 1.84 a share. The spread during the day would tend to indicate that this was a buy. Someone is pretty confident!

A possible drag on the SP may be the situation at British Volt - touted to be a nearby customer of ALK’s product, close by in the NE. Papers are reporting British Volt is in financial difficulties, and may enter administration unless funding can be found. Whilst this would be disappointing for ALK, there will be plenty of other outlets for their Lithium products, in the U.K. and Europe. But this news may explain some of the SHare sales today.

Zero. I have a number of shares in a Fidelity ISA. Fidelity periodically sell off £1-£10 of my shares (depending on the quantity I hold) to pay the holding/admin fees that are associated with my ISA account. Could these sort of transactions account for some/majority of the very small share volume transactions that we see?

I’m not going to bother responding to Kwadoku’s constant streaming of the same thing - day after day, week after week, yawn…. To do so would be to give him the attention he is clearly seeking. I’m filtering him instead, so I don’t have to look at his posts, and, more importantly, his posts don’t distract from those of the many excellent, and well researched, posters on this forum. Simples!

I’m in exactly the same position, Steve. Have had to refinance as well, as I’d hoped to be able to take profits before now to fund a project. But I’m still holding on to every share. I don’t know what the Sp/Dividend will be when Bushranger is sold, but I’m confident that it will be multiples of the current SP - so there is no point in bailing out now. I await the end-game with eager anticipation!

I’d love to have this too, Howezap. But having such a revealing presentation available to the open market, and potential suitors, all at the same time, may risk giving too much information away, and thus impact any financial negotiations with buyers. All just IMHO. I am not saying this won’t happen, but it would surprise me if it did.

Andrew - I appreciate your analysis. Thanks. When do you think the ‘Decision to mine’ will be announced? Colin appeared to make something of Oct/Nov timeframe. Did you pick this up as well?

The Roast guys have confirmed that they interviewed Colin on Friday. With the interview going out ‘probably Monday’. Can they have sight, under an NDA, of an RNS pre release (for Monday?). Otherwise, if their interview with Colin Friday was limited to what has already been announced, I can’t see the point of it - as surely there won’t be anything really worth discussing until after the next RNS?

Kevin has responded on the T group, saying no XTR interview today - maybe tomorrow….

Kevin on the T group said: ‘ Will be doing an XTR podcast with Colin next Tuesday morning’

Ben - that would make total sense. But I’m also prepared for a postponement of the Roast Interview, if whatever Colin expected to be announced ( when he agreed to the interview) is delayed. Personally, I think it’s a little soon for the RC model, so, if anything is published I’m of the opinion it will be Q2 results and, in particular, the gold revenues- maybe sprinkled with a few assay results. Just IMHO.

I’ve noticed, a few times now, that the SP climbs 5%+ just before an RNS is released. There is so much that we are awaiting an RNS for : Q2 results, Gold revenue, assay results etc.
Maybe we will get some SP building RNSs over the next few weeks, prior to the RC/Ascot model being published?

Some very useful diagrams in the attached announcement- showing location of the Cobre find and the direction of strike.

Can anyone work out if this strike continues through our licences?

cdn-api.markitdigital.xxx/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02566142-2A1397549?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Replace xxx by com

This link was posted by a contributor to AFP t/gram

MM - I did 4 purchases between 3.50 and 4.20. Paid 1.35 for one, and 1.40 for the other three. I am reasonably confident that Sandfire will prove successful ( with a monetary payout to us, as per their agreement for the licences sold to them) and/or SF will buy our remaining licences. I am not confident, but hopeful that SF or another will make a bid for the whole company, as the only way the demand for copper will be met in the next decade will be by majors buying out minors/ explorers. I’ve made my investment now, so happy to wait for as long as it takes for this to play out. My more successful investments have been because I took a a view, invested, and waited.

Maybe, instead of a blockbuster RNS, on Bushranger, before the AGM, we will get the Q2 gold production numbers instead - which should be encouraging by themselves?

I get the sense that we are becoming overly absorbed in our board about whether or not we hit 2Mt. And that the feeling almost is binary - we hit 2Mt and make a lot of money, or we fall short of 2Mt and make nothing ( or very little). This just isn’t the case. The only relevance of 2Mt is that it gives AA first right of refusal. If, say, we just had 1.5Mt, then I’ve no doubt that AA and many others would offer us a considerable amount of money for the licence. (Not as much as for 2Mt, obviously, but still a nice wedge). We are proving up a very attractive ore body, near a power line, very close to a major city, in a mining friendly country. And with the demand for copper, as the mine expands into lower CuEq %’s, which aren’t economic now, will almost certainly be in the future, with the gap in supply and demand as the world electrifies. This provides another compelling reason to buy the licence. So, so long as we declare a reasonable resource ( my view, 1Mt+) I’m convinced we will have our hand bitten off. And I’m not saying we don’t have 2Mt+ - we may well have, and that would be brilliant, but let’s not get depressed or caught up in the view that we have to get 2Mt to make money.

IWTO. I’ve been a holder for over 2 yrs. I’d love 2Mt+, but even 1Mt will see this being a highly desirable ore body, and will be sold. So I envisage a few multiples of the current share price, at worst, with the potential for much more. So, I’m happy to wait now for the end-game on the disposal of Racecourse.

Just so long as this game doesn’t go to extra time and then is decided by penalties! I don’t think my nerves could stand it.

Grateful for clarity from someone with better knowledge of the contract. If the Racecourse model declares 2Mt+, does this, or does this not, trigger the invitation for AA to buy back, and start the clock ticking on the time AA have to come in with an offer? I always thought this was the case, and hence why 2Mt wouldn’t be declared until Ascot and Footrot inferred resource could also be included. So that a total resource JORC could be declared, and the whole lot offered in a single parcel. But Howezap’s comment has me thinking again.