RE: NEW US Mutation found in Ohio13 Jan 2021 22:03
Hi C7
In response to your question regarding vaccine efficacy against new mutations. As you probably know the Pfizer, AZ and the Moderna vaccines all cause an immune response against the full-length Covid-19 spike protein. As such, you end up with a ****tail of antibodies and T-cells being raised by the patient's immune system against the spike protein (a polyclonal immune response). In most people, there will be immunodominant epitopes on the surface of a foreign body - which in this case is the SARS-COV2 spike protein. Whilst the immune response initially raises a large number of different low affinity antibodies, over time we see selection of specific antibodies which target these immunodominant epitope regions on the spike protein.
The worry for vaccine manufactures and governments is if one of those mutations is in a region to which most peoples immune responses are targeted. If so, their immune response is diminished and the vaccine fails to work or fails to work well enough to prevent infection/severe symptoms.
There are a number of ways to check vaccine efficiency. You can take blood samples from Covid survivors and screen these for binding against the normal spike protein. Then repeat that same assay looking for binding against the mutant. If the results are the same, then the mutation has no effect because antibodies are able to detect both proteins. However, if the antibodies present in the patient sera can only bind the wild-type protein rather than the mutant, that is worrying and suggests the vaccine may not work.
This can (depending on the mutation) be done computationally. If you know the patches where most patient antibodies bind (ie the immunodominant epitopes) you can simulate these new mutations to see whether they may have a detrimental effect.
Furthermore, for many patients you will find more than one immunodominant epitope, so a mutation in 1 does not mean game over for being able to neutralise the spike protein. It's the combinations which are worrying, especially if those combinations occur within multiple key epitopes on the surface of the spike protein.