RE: Incredible Growth RNS31 May 2026 13:13
Just read this - too many of you really do not understand what MPAL are trying or rather, are achieving…:
1. It assumes costs stay at £7m while gross profit scales linearly
Management isn’t talking about a conventional retail business.
They’re talking about:
* robotic dispensing,
* NHS prescription volume,
* care homes,
* GLP-1 clinic.
The bull argument is that once the infrastructure is in place, additional volume may carry very high incremental margins.
For example:
If revenue goes:
* £5m → £10m → £15m → £20m
the gross margin may improve from:
* 34% → 36% → 38% → 40%
rather than staying fixed.
If margins reach 40%, breakeven revenue falls materially.
2. It ignores management’s own breakeven metric
This is the biggest issue.
Management didn’t say:
“We need £20m revenue.”
They said:
“Pharmacy-level EBITDA breakeven at 80,000 items per month.”
That suggests management is measuring the business operationally rather than purely by revenue.
And importantly:
The acquired Runcorn pharmacy historically dispensed 994,366 items in 2024.
That’s roughly 83,000 items per month.
So management is effectively saying:
“One of the assets we’ve just bought has historically operated above the level we believe is needed for pharmacy-level breakeven.”
That doesn’t prove they’re right, but it does mean the £20m revenue calculation may not capture the operational leverage in the model.