Member Info for Bubblepoint

Well DrAim, you can join the others in the green room, you clearly think everyone is out to gettttt youuuu,,, pmsl,,,, well I openly stated I trade it, and I openly stated I was primarily in for the sidetrack and possibly Balcome, and provided a wealth of sidetrack, and drilling info, if that is deemed playing dirty in your simple head then that is your problem.

As for the condensate & water story, YES there IS water in the reservoir AT 2338m vertical wells will only carry minor misting but of no note, highly deviated or near horizontal wells that dip down toward this depth at bottom of reservoir are likely to pick up reservoir water but will also result in reduced dry gas production due to liquids hold up in the wellbore, and the BANKED condensate is induced from dew point at reservoir along with some induced water, FACT...

I am totally fed up trying to explain this, therefore just follow the company, they are an honest and transparent lot, they will keep you right lol. no more on the subject from me.

Also to add further to the previous post,

A4 has already been noted to produce virtually all produced water back in Jan RNS.

"Gas condensate (liquid) production averaged 120 bbl/day which is somewhat higher than expected whilst water production, entirely from A4 well, was lower than expected at an average of 20 bbl/day."

As said, this is totally down to the poor directional drilling and the dip in the trajectory to bottom of the reservoir and into the "banked" condensate & water. It is the same problem that SFu1 had, in that it was drilled poorly and dipped to reservoir bottom before recovering, meaning it also suffered from too much liquids production of banked condy & water, which compromises the flow of dry gas. This can be CLEARLY seen in the infograph of the SF1u and B7T wells, you can clearly see the SFu1 well Gamma Ray profile hitting the Westphalian basement before altering the trajectory to finish much higher in the reservoir.

They needed to stop some or all of the liquids being produced from SFu1 when it was connected to Theddlethorpe as the ONLY driving force to send everything down the 8km pipeline was the flowing surface pressure, and too much liquids in the pipeline would easily stall out the 33 barg they had at surface by the time Theddlethorpe closed. It was critical.

The Angus current flowing "surface" pressure is at 33 barg, which means they are now at post Theddlethorpe pressures, though it is much less a problem for Angus as they have field processing plant direct to grid and site storage, so they do not suffer from 8km of back pressure of the old pipeline to Theddlethorpe.

You may also notice that the reserves reports do NOT mention gas/oil contact depth, only Gas/water contact, this is because there is water in the Westphalian but much deeper than B7T, so this well does NOT pick it up.

The reference to condensate is ALWAYS as banked condensate, this is INDUCED and relative to declining reservoir pressure, as I keep noting.

Below is an abstract explaining it for those that still do not believe what I am saying.

Concept of a Condensate Bank

The phase behaviour of gas condensate fluids in the near-wellbore region is complex. Many authors have documented the

physics and evidence behind this phenomenon and an in-depth review can be found in Gringarten et al (2000). For an

application to field data see Afidick (1994).

The presence of condensate in the formation reduces the relative permeability to gas, therefore reducing well productivity.

When gas condensate flows towards a well and the pressure drops below dew point, a small volume of liquid is deposited in

the formation. The concentration of liquid is a function of the pressure, temperature, fluid composition and petrophysical

properties of the rock. Initially, this liquid saturation is small and most likely below the critical saturation, therefore immobile.

When more gas flows towards the well, more liquid is deposited, increasing the liquid saturation

I have just looked at what the infamous WG has been posting as screen full of green boxes.

B7T trajectory is NOT deep enough to draw off from the condensate banking within the reservoir, there may be a tiny amount of the total contributed induced water/condy from B7T, but only as a misting, but likely NOT of notable volume.

B2 does go deeper but is more akin to a vertical well profile, which limits its ability to bring liquids to surface in volume, likely similar to B7T, very small NOT volume.

A4 is a totally different set up, partly through poor directional drilling and trajectory, putting a scoop in the trajectory that is almost or at bottom of the Westphalian reservoir before recovering the trajectory and ending it much higher.

That enables the latter part of the well to continue production of dry gas but it also has to pass the low point of the wellbore, bringing notable quantities of induced & banked condensate and water with it to surface, almost certainly as large slugs.

A4 is noted as a future work over, as it will eventually stall as the liquids continue to increase, there comes a point where the liquids within the column are greater than the pressure at reservoir & the gas trying to escape, it stalls. The only option then is to work it over, change the production string design, depth etc.

Anyone listening to the words of WG deserve ALL they get, totally full of it, you will see in the next 12 months or so, they will almost certainly need to do the work over. I have never seen so much total borlocks posted by him. GL to those that listen to it.

A-D,

I will have to go dig back through the mountain of stuff, and the mountain is getting bigger with this lot, I have seen it noted a couple of times, which is very much in line with the note I also saw relating to the later workover requirement for A4.

I will keep looking back through and let you know.

Average Dave,

Below is what I posted yesterday regarding the condensate, it is only produced from A4.

as previously posted:

There is one factor that I am looking at regarding slby, and that is the noted increase in condensate and there will be respective increased INDUCED water.

To e clear, this condy and associated water is NOT a natural deposit within the Whesphalian reservoir, both are generated at and near wellbore and it is because the flowing bottom hole pressure is going further and further below dew point.

It will only increase as time goes on, the next issue I see from this is related to well A4, which has a well trajectory that is bringing drop out condy and associated water with the flow of dry gas.

The problem for A4 is that it is now flowing almost 3 X the condy and water that was seen before the field was shut down.

The more liquids A4 has to flow to surface with the dry gas means the heavier the column in A4 well bore, along with long term ever decling pressure, so A4 could stall out much sooner than later, and require a couple million work over, with associated reduced production. That combined cost and production loss may well add up to nearer £4m by the time they finished.

So for me, more condensate being reported is not a good thing for the field/reservoir, though they report it like a positive.

Robday,

It's a bit of a nightmare really, in reality the remaining producible gas in this asset should have seen this push past £100m M/C discounted.

Yet look where we are today, roughly 1/3rd of that low ball discounted M/C expectation, and that is taking the debt into account as well.

HITS has hit out against angus more times than I care to remember, but the reality is that he has been right from the start or Angus has slipped into his talons and now have made it far easier to keep driving his points.

Bottom line is (for me anyway) that the huge shortfall in the M/C showing even a modest discounted value have been dealt a blow even by Angus themselves and as HITS has noted, when a company is saying they need more than slby to see 100m MC, then something is seriously wrong with SLBY it's self, and it looks like it is something fairly clear within the greater realms of the market and those involved.

Simply, HITS is being proven right by the company themselves, that is actually fact, I don't like negativity but as ever, good news and a good company will take care of your wealth, it is the stuff we don't want to see & hear that hurts it.

If there are points you see that you or others feel are wrong, lies, unjustified, whatever, then the best thing to do is respond with something that puts meat on the bone to support your view.

There are good folk on here, it is a really sheite situation right now for anyone holding, and I hope this outfit manages to somehow turn a corner, but it isn't looking too bright near term.

I also recommend some read my post from yesterday, about 3pm, regarding the condensate etc, because this is also not such a good thing, and anyone who knows the industry will also realise that too, including big market reserchers.

The reality is that a chunk of those people giving their positions on here are highly likely not being straight anyway, I could tell you I have 5 million LTH stock, but I don't, or do I ??

It is 10000% meaningless asking the question on a totally anonymous, faceless forum, as some will note a position simply only to oddly be accepted to post here, it is really nonsense.

I would say posts that contain some finer detail, be it financial, technical, or other to support the point made are more likely to hold some value, other than that it is just noise.

Taken a decent position today, I have had a lot of dealings within the industry along the N.African front, and I think this new onshore venture will prove a solid addition to Char and for us.

Lets see what the next update from them is, I expect strength to strength.

LOL,

I am with you on that line of thinking, it certainly wouldn't be any worse with such high loan interest.

I guess we will soon find out, as they seemed keen enough to want to tell the market they were working on it too.

Firstly this is NOT deramping, just trying to understand WHY

The drop today is totally unjustified imo, way overdone for ANY RNS with production and revenue flowing in.

I have an underlying feeling Angus are preparing to place instead of loan, if it cannot be agreed with some balance, and it looks to me that the market also smells that possibility or some even know... therefore bring the price down, Angus can only get a placing at discount and they take the placing at say what ?? 0.5p to rip it a new bum hole ??

Thing is Ocelot, yes they said that on the 30th, but we are only on the 11th, in Angus terms they are not late ;-))

They often say this n that by next week, next month, but more often than not they never post to appease, they simply leave it hanging until they have something conclusive.

Anyway, it is what it is, worst of it being informed of a delay on something no one wanted to see being implemented without some much greater transparency across the whole angus financials to justify it.

What is weird is WHY put that RNS out yesterday ??

Did they need to simply tell the market "we are still working on it" ??

If it was to hopefully appease the market then it has backfired terribly, there really is little logic as to why they posted that yesterday, they simply didn't need to, They rarely post anything with the intention of appeasing, so what for ? Why ?

Ocelot,

If we knew what they have done with previous revenues and current, and put some clarity on this whole hedge saga then I am sure that would appease many, but they don't, they are doing the opposite and significantly trying to raise funds and raise significant concerns too.

CK,

It is a s**t show, but maybe it will also push them into delivering something with a little more transparency, as clearly things are not as we all imagine with the cash flowing into the coffers right now, they need to explain themselves "if there is nothing to hide"

OP,

No not saying or believe they are at that point, just that it can and has happened for others, though it does look like Angus are being tested to some degree.

OffyP,

You note "the Lenders want to milk the company, not to own it,"

Best example ever of lenders stealing the company from underneath them is GKP, and what a steal that was, so it can & does happen.

HITS,

Totally agree that It was an unexpected quote re the £100m m/c.

There is one factor that I am looking at regarding slby, and that is the noted increase in condensate and there will be respective increased INDUCED water.

To e clear, this condy and associated water is NOT a natural deposit within the Whesphalian reservoir, both are generated at and near wellbore and it is because the flowing bottom hole pressure is going further and further below dew point.

It will only increase as time goes on, the next issue I see from this is related to well A4, which has a well trajectory that is bringing drop out condy and associated water with the flow of dry gas.

The problem for A4 is that it is now flowing almost 3 X the condy and water that was seen before the field was shut down.

The more liquids A4 has to flow to surface with the dry gas means the heavier the column in A4 well bore, along with long term ever decling pressure, so A4 could stall out much sooner than later, and require a couple million work over, with associated reduced production. That combined cost and production loss may well add up to nearer £4m by the time they finished.

So for me, more condensate being reported is not a good thing for the field/reservoir, though they report it like a positive.

Fair comment HITS, thanks,

As for trading this, I remain out for the time being, primarily as stated a few times as P2 that I was mainly here for the sidetrack and Balcombe.

Balcombe seems too much in the headlights for them to make a fast & furious run at it to get the well cleaned up properly and perform a more thorough test program, and that is really the next daily volume raiser/stimulator that I am interested in.

I will be returning to not commenting on my position/s again, as it serves no purpose on these forums, some simply like to want others to actually lose money, weird, but hey, that is the odd way of this new world we live in, and I certainly do not win every trade, I just try to ensure more wins than losses, no one is that lucky ;-)))

Asset value is real for SLBY, and as others have pointed out, the short term debt is out (including Wg) that it is likely weighting this down, along with some areas of weak transparency from the Co. It is likely going to take some more current figures to be released to break that pain, but that is months away.

Just to be clear, I am more than happy to post industry views on here, I have spent many years studying the weald in general and apply my industry knowledge to this, and share some of that here no problem.

I have also openly noted many times that I trade a lot, I always will, I had couple million shares free carry and let them go as logic was that the trend and volume was weakening so I let them go, so what!!

It is no one else's business what I do or don't do, and I make no apologies, it is called a market for a reason. I also would like to say here will be many who say they hold and don't etc etc, it's a forum and you have to try and work some of that out of yourselves, agenda ridden stuff etc.

Folk like Wg want to try and twist the knife but I don't care anymore, I always refused in the past to use the green bin and it ended up causing me hell, so now I have befriended it, and I am using it for the purpose it was designed for, the trash.

Have I given up on Angus? Nope, I believe in the asset value, they have created a future, but right now it needs some stimulous to build on, now is not the time for them to put their feet up.

I expect something from them soon on that front.

Just to be clear, I am more than happy to post industry views on here, I have spent many years studying the weald in general and apply my industry knowledge to this, and share some of that here no problem.

I have also openly noted many times that I trade a lot, I always will, I had couple million shares free carry and let them go as logic was that the trend and volume was weakening so I let them go, so what!!

It is no one else's business what I do or don't do, and I make no apologies, it is called a market for a reason. I also would like to say here will be many who say they hold and don't etc etc, it's a forum and you have to try and work some of that out of yourselves, agenda ridden stuff etc.

Folk like Wg want to try and twist the knife but I don't care anymore, I always refused in the past to use the green bin and it ended up causing me hell, so now I have befriended it, and I am using it for the purpose it was designed for, the trash.

Have I given up on Angus? Nope, I believe in the asset value, they have created a future, but right now it needs some stimulous to build on, now is not the time for them to put their feet up.

I expect something from them soon on that front.