Member Info for Bubblepoint

Hi OP,

It's a toughie, because typically large outfits simply don't look to do the work themselves, they outsource it from market leaders, like Halliburton, Schlumberger etc etc, and all of them want a significant premium, along with VERY long timelines, simply because of lead items, design and approvals, pre installation certification and commissioning timelines.

It not only could cost 2, 3, 4, even 10 X the cost of DIY, it would likely take 10 X longer too.

There is no law against using secondhand equipment, as long as it meets regulation and certification, though sourcing viable and suitable items is no small fete, as there is a world of junk out there too that may look OK but are truly junk.

For example, you can repurpose an old well test separator into a fixed infield plant separator, as long as it passes all the tests and meets the configuration for the plant, and save yourself maybe 70% the cost of a new one.

A compressor has huge gas fired engines, you can source 2nd hand engines that may have low hours on them for 1/3rd the price of a new one and configure that into the compressor skid.

Add to that, do the design and management inhouse and you can likely cut the time and cost compared to outsourcing by up to 70%.

The big disappointment for me was that Angus had spent a lot of time and effort looking into past drilling issues to make the best plan for a successful drill, and then when it can to the time of drilling, they failed to really follow that learned logic and seriously impeded the well and hammered the cost and timeline, all avoidable, they knew what was needed and went cheap at the last minute.

Also my friend Garwood,

as per your post !! "How low can you get, this person was so positive in the beginning, now Like a snake in the grass."

Well 100% I was behind Angus for SLBY from the beginning, great plan, great costing, great timing !!! it had all the hallmarks for something special, they came up with a plan to convert a stranded asset into a decent production platform and quickly.

So yes, it was just perfect, and the asset still is, it was a perfect marriage, but then slowly and stealthily the cracks started to appear and grow over the weeks & months, snowballing, to where it is now, that rose covered cottage looks nothing like it should, it is in marital & financial distress.

So my friend, did I cause that ?? is it my fault ?? I will make it easy for you !!! it is ALL their own doing, They are "the snake in the grass" that has bitten and poisoned such a fine beast, but you simply don't like reality, you simply prefer to try and lay the blame elsewhere, blinded by the light but covered in sh^^e !!!

Ahhhh my friend Garwood !!

Good morning to you too !!

Please don't get me started on negatives !!!

I mean, I forgot to add that the phenomenal time & cost over run on the sidetrack was bad enough, but what many fail to note also, is that they ONLY managed to drill 200m of horizontal section, not the 450m they were planning, so not only did it cost a kings ransom, they only delivered less than half the production zone planned, which in turn also means a reduction in infill recoverables, which is a double whammy/slap in the face !!!

OK, my friend ?? or do you not understand that it is the negatives that damage your wealth, the positives take care of themselves !!!!!! I suspect you are one of those that only look at the pictures and never read the detail.....

Well they have had a total of around £46m slip through their hands since the initial take on SLBY, which is only approx 80% more than the approx £25m it was supposed to cost to this stage.

The result of this is poor management throughout the process, poor deals, poor drilling management, 6 months instead of 6 weeks for a basic sidetrack, and a poor level of transparency throughout.

Bottom line is if they had done this right then there would be almost zero debt at this time, so now shareholders have to pay for the foreseeable for these poor ways, all the time straining & depleting the field further.

Shareholders should be reaping the benefits of this "honeymoon" flowing period, but it will result in only mostly being handed to the financiers with the remaining much needed for OPEX. CAPEX and "other" ermmm needs.

Must be a lot of verbal diarrhea being spouted by the usual cultprats , BV and a couple others in the green room, judging by the flurry of green boxes after each post lol..... god bless em...........

Roadhouse,

I don't care if you or others don't like it, it is MY opinion, and I will post if I want, thanks for your concerns lolol

Patrick,

You don't have to "believe" to make money, you just need to adjust to both how it is evolving, dissolving, diluting, debt loading etc, and have some ability to read the unwritten (what they are not telling you).

Angus has grown in asset and drowned in dilution & debt to achieve that, as Hits noted, it has a lower MC today than when GL entered the Frey, he is borderline just another Lenigas though not quiet as bad.

TS,

Are you insinuating market manipulation ??? Surely not in this day & age!!!

Tight spread, for a change. Ehhhh 12.5% gezzzz god help it on a loose day lol

Garwood & co,

I am not disappearing anytime soon thanks.

I have no agenda, Pi trades barely make the dial twitch on any aim stock these days, so I wouldn't worry your neep about that too much.

As for buying in !!! not a hope in hell at the moment, not even for a risky quick trade, so again chillax, I am not going to be playing Angus anytime soon...

If you don't like reading logical posts then you CAN use that little filter tab, simply remove me from YOUR screen,,, simplezzz, well for some anyway !!

If you are now ONLY reliant on gas prices to make something out of Angus, and your belief is that it is going to rally hard, then you are far, far better off simply trading gas futures, which doesn't have all the burdens of debt, ceo's, and decision making to contend with.

OK, any director buys are better than nowt, but 1.3m !! really, it'll of costed more to RNS it than the value lol...

At least RH tried a little harder, but I would have expected them to at least try for 10m + each as a deeper show of faith in forward plans & expectations.

Its called Silent Sunday, as the future relies on wholesale gas prices and that's Mon-Fri, there's nowt else worth noting...

I personally do not think Slby will become gas storage in the future, mainly because the baseline within the reservoir will be drained too far beyond usability for storage, which is a good thing for total recoverables for Angus, and even if it was, it is way way down the road.

I fully expect it will become a permanent carbon disposal, which will result in a much greater and far quicker financial gain for Angus than the long game gas storage.

OP,

The Wingas rate of decline is based on how they were producing at that time, and a significant effect on that RoD would have been based on the ever increasing liquids and the back pressure on the export line to Theddlethorpe which would be quiet significant.

In my book, the current flows are very much in a "honeymoon" period, which is hugging the "dew point" pressure for the reservoir, meaning the RoD is likely to be low for probably another 12 months, but will likely see a much harder RoD beyond that, based on higher Condensate banking as the pressure at reservoir is pushed deeper below "dew".

It isn't so much about depleting gas flow, more related to the double action on the flow column to surface, meaning increased fluids being recovered to surface cause a reduction in surface pressure as the column to surface weight increases and restricts the flow of dry gas.

So decline is likely to be low for max 12, maybe 18 months, then significantly increase.

Also the CPR also notes the likely need to put in a smaller production tubing in SF4, which is actually referring to a "velocity" string, by reducing the tubing size, you naturally increase the flow velocity inside the tubing, which in turn brings more liquids out to surface, and associated dry gas too, so you can extend the production life of that well.

I wouldn't be surprised if the lenders for the GF £20m have also noted this, and the potential risk, as Angus also need to maintain a decent OPEX level for the field too.

Good luck with your accumulating JTS, fair points, but I will sit and wait it out for now, it needs more of a defined driver to make a worthwhile punt at the moment. Though I agree gas prices into winter will obviously help.

JTS,

Every little helps !! though value is in the eye of the holder or to be holder !! The reality may prove very different.

To much needs to be sorted, cleaned up, and projected clearly at this time for me, though I am tracking it as usual..

SV,

Email Forrest, he has plenty of stock to get rid of, he "might" even give you a little discount for 5m + shares lol....

Snap ;-)))

Tony,

There is always a desperate hunt & hope for what might be the next SP driver when the chips are this far down,

But really some of the ones noted really do have opposing consequences or are not really valid.

1) The refinancing of £25 million debt (due any time)

I believe it is $25m not £25m so you just saved the company a few million in that debt pile through the exchange rate ;-))

2) News on permanent flow line and gas generator install (end August)

This will almost certainly not make a jot of notable difference to the flow rates that already exist, it will save them on the Welltest flowline and additional separator on site and their related daily cost, but it isn't huge, at best it would be charged at around £2 -£3k a day with manning personnel, so it will save them around £70k-£100k per month, but quiet minor in comparison to the monthly revenue.

3) Revised revenue figures, including first full quarter with third well (due end of quarter)

I fully expect that the market will already have worked the revenue figures out, same as Gallder does on here.

4) Winters coming (gas prices predicted to leap higher)

It will help, and is likely to increase, but it will take something far more significant to really shift the stock price.

5) Storage agreement announced

Why on earth are folk wanting to see this, it means the end of Saltsfleetby as a rejuvenated gas production field, and immediately ends its flowing revenue stream, way too early to wish that to end, and any storage solution is likely going to take years to both get new permissions and designs reapproved.

6) Known 300 million Therms to extract

You won't see any of that if it goes to out to storage, it will be lost forever, and any compensation is unlikely by whomever drives this forwards to use for whatever storage purpose.

7) Strong possibility of takeover

Its always a possibility, but any offer is likely to seriously underwhelm Pi's, though Angus may well be up for it for their own ermmm "reasons".

I'm not a trader but have been successful by following Buffet's advice “If you aren't willing to own a stock for 10 years, don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

Follow Buffet's advise and all you are doing is sitting on your hands while he sells into it, his type don't practice what they preach, they preach in the hope they can sucker 1000's into following their advise, same as those who publish "how to become a millionaire" type books !!! hmmmm