Member Info for BubbaBubbaBubba

I built a simple DCF model for the Vietnam gas project and thought I’d share the rough numbers for discussion.

Key assumptions

• Recoverable reserves: 171 Bcf

• Plateau production: ~80 MMscf/d

• Gas price: $10/MMBtu

• Royalties: 10%

• OPEX: $1.20/mcf

• Admin: $0.40/mcf

• Development capex: $350m

• Decommissioning: $100m

• Discount rate: 12%

Production profile assumed:

• Plateau 80 MMscf/d for first ~3 years

• 5% annual decline years 3–6

• 15% decline years 7–10 until depletion

Model outputs

Total revenue over field life: ~$1.71B

Operating costs: ~$205M

Royalties: ~$171M

Pre-tax project cash flow: ~$832M

After tax, capex and decommissioning:

Total undiscounted cash flow ≈ $754M

Discounted at 12%:

Project NPV ≈ $303M

Using 540M shares outstanding, that implies roughly:

~$0.56 per share of value from the Vietnam gas project alone under these assumptions.

What a farm-out could look like

If the company farmed out 40% of the project, a partner would likely fund part of development capex in exchange for that stake.

Using the same NPV estimate:

Project value: $303M

40% stake value:

≈ $121M

Remaining value to the company (60%):

≈ $182M

On a per-share basis:

~$0.34 per share retained value

But the key benefit of a farm-out is reducing capital exposure.

Instead of funding the full $350M development, the company might only need to fund ~60%:

≈ $210M capex

So the trade-off becomes:

• Lower ownership

• Lower risk and capital requirement

• Earlier project sanction potential

Main sensitivities

The biggest drivers of value are still:

• Gas price

• Development capex

• Plateau production rate

• Fiscal terms / tax rate

Even small changes to those can shift the valuation materially.

This is just a rough framework to think about the project economics — curious where others would adjust assumptions.

Head office is the shard were moving up in the world

Oooh our new neighbour is the Shangri-La Hotel

Imported gas is 13 to 14 on average

Vietnam would be extremely profitable at 9 to 10 Dollars per MMBtu

And its like 15000 barrel of oil equivalent type deal

Its a game changer at $10 plus

Need a $10+ agreed price for it to be a wonderful deal

Anything past 29p I'm in profit still cant people are selling

Vietnam news gonna be massive the whole market waiting for it to be announced

The company will be producing 40000 barrels a day when Vietnam comes online

Still want them to buy more assets

Chevron are having a clear out

£1 a share is my target by end of 2026

If oil price hold

100 a barrel

We have a forward PE ratio ot 0.25× hahaha

This is the cheapest company in history

Demand collaspe if oil goes too high

Its very scary

Airlines might stop flying

December futures hit 80

You've got to hedge more at that price

Farm down process starts in Q2

So we must be really close to approval

Brent future

Price

May 2026

$91.9

Jun 2026

$89.4

Jul 2026

$86.6

Aug 2026

$84.2

Sep 2026

$82.2

Oct 2026

$80.5

Nov 2026

$79.0

Dec 2026

$77.8

Mar 2027

$74.9

Its getting closer together

October is 80 now hedging 20% not a bad idea

Brent is literally 90 a barrel and we tank

Perfect time for share buybacks

I'm sad oil is down

Were gonna be valued lower than pre war come end of the week

And oil will be above 80

Hopefully Jadestone got some good hedges

400 million free cash flow if we can lock in futures at this level

Hopefully its too 150 so we can do that

The profit is 4x our current market cap

Brent is $110

$100 brent tonight

We just need futures to move closer together

Oil is only going higher

Montara — 4,229 bbl/d — ~1.54m bbl/year — ~$100m operating profit

CWLH — 3,311 bbl/d net — ~1.21m bbl/year — ~$79m operating profit

Stag — 2,209 bbl/d — ~0.81m bbl/year — ~$53m operating profit

Akatara — 5,771 boe/d — ~2.11m boe/year — ~$75m operating profit

Malaysia (PM323 + PM329) — ~3,951 + 1,132 = 5,083 boe/d — ~1.86m boe/year — ~$105m operating profit

Total operating profit at $90 oil: ~$410m

Minus

Interest / finance costs — ~$55–60m annualised (H1 2025 finance costs were $28.4m, so roughly double that for a full year, though this includes non-cash accretion as well as borrowing costs)

Tax — ~$70–90m (rough estimate; H1 tax was $5.3m at much lower profitability, so at $90 oil tax would be materially higher)

Capex — ~$50–80m for 2026 guidance; midpoint ~$65m is reasonable

So after interest + tax + capex, a sensible range is:

~$410m

less ~$55m interest

less ~$80m tax

less ~$65m capex

= ~$210m net free cash flow

Madness

Absolute Madness

Vietnam announcement anytime soon

This is mental free cash flow is gonna be insane

Stag must be over $100

The profit is bigger than the company