The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Agreed valuations are crazy in the S&P and the DJIA
No doubt the bubble will burst eventually but not quite yet I think
CEY needs to consistently deliver on or above guidance for at least 2 quarters in order to rebuild shareholder confidence enough to justify a valuation above £1.30 in my opinion
Until that happens it will remain volatile which means plenty of buying opportunities
Has started early
S&P hit a new all time high
I expect gold will finally pull back to $1380 region over the next few weeks as hedge funds cut defensive positions and go all in on momentum stocks
Early December I expect I will get my £1 entry
Exploration results look promising but they never seem interested in doing anything to realize ounces from them...
Just keep drilling holes
IMO Q3 results look about as expected, I don't think it is possible to achieve guidance unless they hit some very high grade over the next two months so possible we will dip further
I have pulled my order to buy at £1 and will wait and see how it goes
Possible we will see 90 p again before the end of the year
I use motley fool as the UK equivalent of Gartman...
If they say buy then sell, if they say sell then buy
Looks like I will get my entry in the next few weeks...
It will probably drop further after that, I am useless at calling the top or the bottom
Last year I brought at 92 and it dropped to below 80 and then I sold at 133 and it went to 150
Still shouldn't be greedy I guess
The price dropped from $1800 down to $1100 because miners increased output and the scrap gold market exploded leading to massive oversupply. Over the last few years the market has tightened again hence the price increase
I don't doubt there is plenty of unethical behavior going on
Several banks have been fined recently for spoofing the precious metals markets
I just don't believe there is a big conspiracy to keep gold prices low
Traders spoof prices lower into weakness based on the balance of orders but conversely they spoof prices higher into strength
They are only interested in making money, they are agnostic with regards to the price direction
I disagree personally, I don't buy into the conspiracy theories.
Gold is probably at fair value at the moment - if it goes much higher and stays there then a lot of resources with are not economic at say $1200 will get the finance needed to be extracted and in a few years time prices will crash
The same thing happened when gold spiked up to $1800 which caused the drop down to $1200
Why would anyone want to manipulate the price of gold? Of course bank trading desks will push the price around a bit as they do for all assets but there is no conspiracy there just trading desks doing what they do in my opinion...
Gold is always weak going into December, January is traditionally gold's best month, lots of physical demand in China and India around then for various festivals etc
POG moved from 1250 to 1500 pretty quickly it needs a retrace before the next leg up on my opinion
I used to work for xaar, this valuation is crazy.
I brought a load at 43p, they will return to profitability next year for sure.
Sirius mining as a company is finished I expect, any potential buyer will need to raise there own finance facility and will most likely clear out the current board etc. If they can't or consider this too high risk then it's toast...
I don't think that is that likely though, the likes of JPM will have done due diligence before offering 2.5 billion in my view
55/45 sounds about right to me
Don't forget any deal will have to be approved by shareholders and there are some big institutional investors on board here
The biggest risk for me is that no one is interested not the level of dilution
It is quite possible that the projected costs and returns are way off and that any potential buyer that looks through the details will run a mile...
Like I say not heavily invested, Just 60000 shares...
Speculative Gamble
Agreed they need 3 billion to deliver the project but accessing finance with a well funded controlling interest will be significantly easier
£500 million will be enough to de risk the project such that a finance agreement can be reached
If anybody is interested in taking the project forward then they will buy in, if it goes to administration then planning permission becomes void and the mine gets filled in...
Much cheaper to snap the company up for a third of sunk cost
I am not heavily invested here and my average is 3.3p so I can afford to be objective.
My opinion as follows;
They need approx 500 million in new equity to get access to the required lending facility. (Assuming that JPM are still willing to provide)
Any investor will demand a controlling interest say 55%
If we assume 55% for £500 million then the remaining 45% should be valued at around 400 million or approximately 6p a share
This is my base case, hence my small holding
Grabbed a few of these, I expect it will creep upwards towards 5p as the volume drops over the next few weeks