Member Info for Broxburn68

Having said that, I do suspect that there has been a sell-off of BKY, possibly a continuation from Anglo Pacific as spotted by omilik92 a month or so ago. Change in substantial holding RNS possibly forthcoming? On the subject of RNS's, we're due the latest quarterly report within the next 10 days or so. It would be good, in fact massively good, to hear updates on the permitting process with regard especially to the final part of the radioactive licensing and some substantiation of further drilling/ exploration results. It's just been a bit quiet news wise here lately.

Latest URA holdings here: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=ura I don't see a large sell off of BKY here...or am I missing something...??

Really interesting article - thanks Baht.

You may also find this report from world-nuclear.org useful: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx There is a strong suspicion that the Chinese stockpiles/ inventories may be much higher than stated here; they have been buying very significant amounts from Kazakhstan for a good while now. The estimates of the requirements of power utilities which are supplied by mines which I can find varies from 62% (Wiki) to 86% (Denison). http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Secondary_Uranium_Supply.asp There is a strong consensus however that these secondary supplies are being diminished and at some point we are are going to enter into a supply side deficit...just when is the question. The recent mine closure/ production cuts are excellent news with regard to this equation of course.

Fully agree, Tom. There's so much more to be made when the spot price recovers; reducing supply is the obvious economic driver to achieve this.It was interesting to see the level of overseas investment in the Kazakh mines in the report - higher than I initially thought. It also seems that a large proportion of their output is traded on the spot market. I also found this tie-in to the US interesting: "In October 2015 Kazatomprom signed an agreement with Centrus Energy to help market Kazakh uranium in the USA. In April 2016 Kazatomprom signed an agreement with US-based Converdyn so that Kazatomprom could offer uranium for sale in the form of natural UF6, and access new markets with an �integrated product offering�, giving customers �increased supply options�. This is simply a marketing alliance, complementary to the Cameco investment in Ulba. Also in April a Kazakh-US energy partnership agreement was signed, related to nuclear security and in particular the �conversion of Kazakhstan's research reactors and enforcement of physical nuclear security." I wonder if we could be hearing more about this in the near future..??

Hi Tomcorvid/ Playboy007, I've found this fairly comprehensive report including production figures per mine in Kaza if it helps: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/kazakhstan.aspx

Yes, easyp, it's been frustrating for a while with regard to Uranium for sure. The time frame for seeing a good return on our investments here seems to keep moving further and further into the future. I bought in here in Sep 16 thinking that in 18 months time we should begin to see some reward materialising. Now in April 18, I'm hoping that in 18 months time..... Sep 16 is also when I sold out of most of the FTSE 100 shares I held due to my personal prediction of an imminent stock market crash. Ocado & Easyjet were badly timed to say the least; British Land, M&S not so bad, so would not be too far up or down over the piece really. Always been a bit early for the party maybe...:) With regard to BKY, I really can't see IMHO that the Omani investment is having any negative impact on our SP here whatsoever; this deal far exceeded anything I could have hoped for with regard to funding. It surely must be recognized that these chaps are in here long term; they wanted a "best price" guarantee for supplies of U3O8 as part of the deal after all. It certainly will be interesting with regard to energy security for Germany as you say; it does seem like France are retracing from their agenda of reducing nuclear energy production. Russian gas may become a political bargaining tool. Where are the Germans going to source their power...? I've thought about investing in Energy Fuels, UR-Energy, Uranium Energy Corp, etc ( US Uranium Co's) and would certainly not put anyone off as these are likely to fly if Trump grants them protectionism - though not sure this can/ will happen. Even if protectionism doesn't happen, they look well positioned to take advantage when the long term contract prices eventually rise.

Here's the latest list of holdings and changes in the Global X Uranium ETF as at 27 March: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=ura It doesn't look like it's BKY they're selling to any degree at all; they are making other fairly significant disposals however and few, if any, acquisitions. In fact we're back up to No.4 in their top holdings!

I must say that I do find this downward trajectory of the share price a bit puzzling. It's hard to see much of a downside compared to where the company was a year or so ago or more, but the potential upside surely seems to be still intact. It does seem that if there IS any concrete news about signed and sealed larger scale contracts, this one could take off quite dramatically, and quickly. Still looks like a longer term play to me (months rather than years mind you), but at this SP I had to have a small top up! Let's see what transpires I suppose.

The long term contract price of Uranium, which IMHO is by far the biggest driver with regard to the share price of BKY, is now at it's lowest level since July 2005. We are surely reaching the inflection point on this graph, especially taking into account the latest production cuts and a suggestion from many observers that we are now about to enter into a supply side deficit. https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price I see there are still a number of these dark pool trades showing from IIs selling from a short term perspective, but it is surely a matter of time before there is a marked reversal from this decline in the price Uranium, and indeed the stagnation of the BKY SP. Just when. Maybe the resource update we were due in Q1 was the information in the half year report; drilling and exploration is concentrated around Salamanca I and II rather than Zona 7 apparently. Can't factor in the Omani loan as suppressing the SP here personally.

Yes, well spotted omalik92. Bit strange that this RNS has not appeared on this site; I checked the London Stock Exchange and apparently an RNS was issued on Tuesday afternoon with regard to this disposal. AP still retain 85%+ of their holding mind you.

This certainly doesn't seem to be company specific. Using Global X as a proxy for the uranium sector as a whole, in the last three months, BKY down 14.53%, Global X down 18.35%. In the last year, BKY down 9.09%, Global X down 16.78%. Uranium still just unloved in general at the moment. These IIs need to take a much shorter outlook on returns than us PIs in order to meet monthly/ quarterly/ yearly targets. We have the advantage of being able to hold out for a much longer term perspective on our investments, even if it all takes a bit longer than hoped for.

RNS from ASX: The recent dark pool trades must have involved Anglo Pacific reducing their holding in BKY by 2.734m shares. Begs the question of who has been buying these up I suppose since there has been minimal share price movement? https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180309/pdf/43s9r4h1cv90ng.pdf

Indeed. I'm new in here but even if there's a steady drip feed of initially small revenue streams like this, the potential of future gains and expansion are being steadily reinforced. I can't see anything negative so far.

Thanks strangerstill, it's great to hear that the project is progressing very nicely indeed and that more exciting news may be ahead. It certainly seems like BKY went the extra mile in providing for your visit; they continue to come across as an extremely professional and well run organisation.

I might have coined a new phrase in my ignorance...possibly "Blackpool" trades might be appropriate - I recall all the political conferences and wheeling and dealing which used to be done there! I remember the Black Rock sell off too and agree with you that the SP is not following that downward trajectory thankfully. As you say we'll be wiser in due course.

I must confess to being a bit, well totally, ignorant with regard to dark pool trading, but have done a bit of research if it's of interest. They seem to be set up by third parties, eg Goldman Sachs as below, to minimize trading costs and price disruption of individual shares. The participants tend to be institutional investors. All trades seem to be at mid-price, so no clues here after all! "A trading venue that does not have to provide information such as trade sizes or prices to the public prior to trades taking place, with the aim of getting large orders done with minimal price movement". http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-goldman-sachs-to-launch-new-dark-pool-for-stocks-on-friday-2017-5 "Dark pool operators aim to significantly reduce that part of the transaction cost attributed to the spread by offering buyers and sellers the opportunity (note opportunity - there�s no guarantee) to trade at the mid-price of the lit order book. What is perhaps best known about dark pools is that they often see trades executed with much greater volume than what is available on the touch in the lit, while details of transactions are only made public after a trade has gone through". https://itarle.com/blog/best-execution-dark-pools.html "The objectives of a buy-side trader are simple: to source sufficient liquidity whilst minimising information leakage and price impact". https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/Comerton-Forde%2C%20Carole%20paper.pdf For every buyer there has to be a seller, but there seems to be a much greater demand for trading BKY than is available on the open, or lit, market. Any opinion most welcome.

Another nice "black pool" trade today, omalik92 - �215k+. We'll find out soon enough who's buying if I'm right!

It's a bit of guesswork for sure, but for example if you look at the �162k trade at 14:31 yesterday at 48p, all trades prior to this on the day were 47.52 and below. The SP rose by over 1p after this trade, understandably. Similarly the �12k trade the day before was at a higher price than the trades immediately preceding it. The bid/ ask/ price quoted on LSE can be a bit misleading; buys are often reported as sells as most who have traded here will know. For example, the trades at 47.999 on the 27th are almost certainly buys, whilst those at 47.25 will be sells. It will be interesting to see if there is a "change in substantial holding" RNS in due course if this continues. There is a US fund, Global X, which trades exclusively in Uranium stocks worldwide which has a 25.3m+ share holding in BKY. It would be very encouraging if they are increasing their holding still further. At this current SP who would think of selling anyway!!

If you look at the price and time traded, they look like buys to me. Interesting.