Member Info for Bridgedogg1

If we hit commercial oil I’m wondering what will happen. PMO is the big factor, I can’t help but think that even if oil prices go back up in the near term PMO will look to pay down some of its debt after being so exposed. I suspect both 88e and PMO would look to farm out some of the production cost which will now also be an uncertain process. I think that this will be moved back by a good few years as a result of the oil price crash, no way the project goes unimpacted even on a success case.

Ahha you make a good point, didn’t mean to be rubbing it in the face of any holders, seemed a bit quiet on here so didn’t see the harm, plus I was open about my short position and tbh wanted to warn any PIs about what I thought was coming. Closed out my position now and see that Granular are still adding. Human nature being what it is there could be a rise from here. Will be keeping and eye on it and if it comes close to £4 I’ll be opening another position for the CMA report in April/May which is clearly going to decimate the unprofitable parts of the business. I think they will need to cut down the entire business, sell off what they can on the funeral side and then have a relook at the transformation plan. I’d give it 3 years and you might have a smaller, leaner business to build on.

Had my accountant friend look at the results, the accounting changes from last year and the inclusion of trust assets and income on the balance sheet. Agrees it’s a complete farce but allowed in the rules, also pointed out likely to be a £20m hole in the pension to be filled this year.

A £3m sale at 8 in the evening? Never seen that before.

might have called that wrong

Also for today I predict a massive sell off at the close

I think this will come back a bit but continue a down trend over a few months. Too much uncertainty before the CMA initial report out in April/May. The CEO statements have paved the way for a major restructuring and maybe the rights issue/cash raising that noheartss mentioned on here earlier today. In terms of buying for the medium term I would wait for that all to pan out. Plenty of room to trade if you want a quick turn around. Wouldnt be surprised to see it go back up to £4.30 level but ultimately heading to £3p imo

Big sell in the background atm

Dignity trades is a war of the trading bots at the moment. Automatic bot trades moving the price for the large buyers/sellers. Multiple small buys to keep the price afloat before the huge sell kicks in. Nice if you've got the money to see it through.

I was actually going to mention Rockhopper, I was invested in this in the early days and have always kept an eye on it. Need to do a bit more research on it now, but I saw someone mention there is some kind of arbitration in the pipeline that could bring in a large settlement. The big risk is PMO who are over leveraged and may struggle with a prolonged oil price squeeze. Its unlikely now that RKH will get funding to open up a new oil production frontier in the Falklands with the current oil price climate, one to buy and hold if you have a couple of years. Another one that could see 10x from here.

Haha yes would have been a Woodford buy.
Not sure about Pheonix, I wonder as they are now so involved with the board that they were in the close period. They are now of course able to sell what they want (£600k sells??), they have to advise of any 1% change of holding, if the TR1s start flooding in they could indicate a mass sell off over the next few weeks. They must know the business is done for. I always support PIs buying on the bounce because we are more flexible than the big institutions but I would be careful to let the dust settle here.

Granular Capital bought in recently 3%, ironic considering the name,I dont think they did much granular level of analysis. They will be at around a 25-30% loss currently and must be considering their options.

Thanks ahha, dont worry I get plenty wrong. A recently pulled out of a stock that went up 300% in the following 2 weeks.

I have to buy sensible stocks for my day job but for my personal dealing I go for the much more risky end of the market, non income producers, so might not be up your street if you are buying the likes of Centrica. Currently im looking at oil stocks, i was lucky enough to be out during the recent crash but think there are bargains to be had and I think that the Russians will come back to the table and agree a small prosecution cut before the end of the month, when the current cuts expire.

I'm looking at LEK. It got hit by a scandal before the crash and lost 70% but there wasnt really any material business impact. It has now lost another 40% on the oil crash. It produces a fair amount of oil for its size and is part of a larger consortium on oil projects so has some protection. Cash in the bank is OK. Keeping an eye on it and might get in at around 1.5p if I can. It is a bit of a binary bet but minimal downside from here and possible 10+ bagger once oil prices come back.

At the very small end something like ORM, pretty much a cash shell trading at 0.5p a share and cash value over 1p a share. It also has a small gold lease. in there markets a bit of gold and a bit of cash cant be back, good for a quick low risk turn around.

I'm not in either at the moment.

As I say that kind of strategy isnt to everyone tastes. If i was a long term investor id be looking at holding cash for a little while then buying some of the big dividend payers, that have been hit hard but had a measure of protection, reinvest the dividends of course.

ll of this magical accounting says to be that the BOD are looking to stay afloat until the CMA report in April which it will then blame for a massive restructuring resulting in closures and cash raising. In that way they can protect there own jobs which is what they are all in it for.

The latest actuarial valuations of the Trusts (at 27 September 2019) showed them to have a surplus of £17 million, based on prudent assumptions.

Wonder what has happened to the £17m surplus since September 2019. £1b x -20% = £183m deficit

I've just seen that the trusts for the prearranged funeral plan have been brought onto the balance sheet. In a piece of magical accounting Investment gains have been counted as income at circa £79m. This wouldn't have been included previously and actually means the operating profit is much lower than shown. Also any subsequent investment loss will have to be reflected as an income loss, didnt the markets crash recently??????

Looking at this years accounts it’s showing an increase in operating profit from a loss to a gain. But looking at last years it’s was reported completely differently. Very dodgy to change reporting standards but not reflect what it would have been like for like. Some press reporting an increase in profit but it’s just accounting changes.

Results look bad but a disaster is hidden between the lines.
Transformation plan on hold.
CMA investigation likely to impact size and profitability of business = mass closures and restructuring ahead. Will be unable to pay debts. Expecting some kind of cash realisation in near term to pay down debt.

Ahha I think the last broker target was £5! We’ve seen new large holders come in and I think they are banking on a turnaround, the long term price action combined with the relatively high revenues make it look like it could be under valued, but I really don’t think it is. I originally started researching the company with a view to buy based on these factors but quickly changed my mind. It’s the first time I’ve put in a lot of work looking at accounts and doing a deep dive into a company’s financials as I usually go for event driven investments. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them out of business this time next year, possibly a private equity buyout at knockdown prices. Shares will get demolished to keep the doors open and pay off debt. I wouldn’t suggest a buy at and price above £3 and only then after they have sorted the debt out in some way.

Phoenix have people/person? on the board so they may well be in a closed period until after the results come out. I don’t know if this is the case or they work on a Chinese walls basis, but Phoenix is key to propping you the share, if they decided to get out it would be a bloodbath.
I could be wrong but I’ve put my money where my mouth is on this one.

No surplus cash with oil at $33

Oil pushing up $