focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
This explains why my previous assertion that a US oil major would be very unlikely to seek to acquire GKP for compliance reasons remains relevant
They should have reasonable foresight of revenue growth - $32m x 125 per cent 2019 = $72m x 40 per cent = $101m 2020 so $69m pa extra revenue expected this year and next. Further contract wins could also supplement this. Still not great but slightly healthier than the past
Agreed - I am however seeing the ability to take on new debt as a small positive in the sense that due diligence will have been undertaken with a bit more information on the current situation than we have at our disposal. Time will tell if this is optimism bias on my part
The unanswered question is where the rest of the 225/250m USD comes from. Most of it will be the refinancing of the 118m debt due to settle in 2020 but it remains to be seen if it is all replacement debt or something else?
Looks like the only financing options being pursued are new notes, which should rule out further equity dilution. While new debt is not ideal I expect this to signal the start of a modest turnaround in the share price as a bit of the bankruptcy element in the current share price unwinds. I can see 5 - 10p in next 2-3 months and expect the accounts can now be signed off (just) on a going concern basis.
Couple of pieces of good news today - thanks Robbie and tyche
Might be DW selling, possibly he had to sell by a certain time as part of his exit agreement - who knows....
My best guess was 1,000USD /MHz per month so 1.8m USD per month. There was a statement somewhere in a RNS sometime in past year about current pricing, but I can't find it. From the previous RNS it is difficult to ascertain if this was included in the high growth in bandwidth revenues forecast for 2019 and 2020. Good news but needs several more of similar scale before we could claim full turnaround is underway
I just spoke to IR they are still going through year end audit so I don’t expect to see results for another 3-4 weeks
Apologies wrong board!
Avanti Finance/IR team returned my call. There is no announcement on results date yet. They are still going through year end audit (this is a 6 quarter / 18 month reporting period due to change of year end). That being the case I think we are 3-4 weeks away from results, although I guess there could be a trading update before or after that.
I have called IR to clarify results announcement date - just waiting on a call back
Exactly my initial point - I don’t see us being acquired by a US company, but Russian / Far East companies are a different story. The DOJ has much wider reach than you imagine by the way, eg any cash flowing through US banks brings it into US jurisdiction - just ask Rolls Royce, Siemens Alstom etc etc. Anyway back to work....
Damn autocorrect- for Ernie read Erbil!
FCPA enforcement cases (both number and size of fine) have ramped up significantly in recent years - what Chevron or Exxon considered as payments in the normal course of business 5 years ago would represent too great a risk today. I am speculating but if they are passing operatorship to others then the operator may be the party lia le for any MNR facilitation payments - and therefore the operator would assume the compliance risk. Again just one possible reason for US parties peddling slowly in KRI. It will probably be a numer if factors - ISIS, Baghdad / Ernie politics, payment track record, uS v Russia etc. We would be the last to know the real reasons....
I am not saying they would face an investigation simply that they would avoid making payments that could in future lead to an investigation and that may be a blocker to any deal
Mikes
I have been a "lurker" on these boards over the years - bought in just after court case so obviously down a fortune like most on here. The main reason I posted was that BB brought up a point which I have some experience in as Chief Compliance Officer. No hidden agenda and I would be as happy as anyone on here if a major partnered / bought GKP. I just don't see it coming from US for reasons noted below.. BG
All I am saying is that one of the reasons the US majors appear to be stepping back from deals in KRI is the risk of investigation by the US DoJ. Side payments of the type potentially required by our hosts create risks for senior directors and it is only a matter of time until US authorities have a look. Also refer to live SFO investigations in the sector including Unaoil etc
BB
I was talking to another poster on here and I had a similar thought about FCPA. I was until recently a Chief Compliance Officer at a large UK Corporate and I really struggle to see how US majors could get their BoDs comfortable with investment in KRI with all the "conditions" that might go along with such investment. Perhaps Far East or Russian corporate governance rules give a bit more leeway for investment.
Nope I took the equivalent allocation in the "half price sale" that's been running these past two weeks.