Member Info for Boyobach

It's just a technicality but, last Wednesday, I pointed to a gap at the start of the 'nice' day in the region of 167. I see that this has since disappeared - through some kind of magic the opening price for that day (which should obviously not change) appears in the latest chart to have been moved down to 166 - removing the gap. Which is good news unless, of course, you were looking at a prospective buy price in that region. Looking back at the 15' chart, the gap is still there. I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent explanation!
https://invst.ly/urjsd

So do you think the oil price will increase towards $80pb - from circa $65 currently - when/if demand rises?

Do I think increased demand normally leads to increased prices? Yes.
Do I think demand is likely to increase? Yes.

I think $80 is possible and the chart - bearing in mind that they are indicative not predictive - shows that the price has been challenging a seven year limiting line at a seasonally good time for demand as we head towards summer in the northern hemisphere and as travel etc picks up. OPEC+ has seen the fruits of its control over supply and the question for them now is the diminishing return of pumping more and consequently holding the price back. So far the shale producers have been reluctant to enter the fray and seriously ramp back up: maybe they have learned the lesson that pumping more (at quite high cost) only to see the price drop sharply is not a smart move. In the end, if you can make the same profit from lower production levels it's a no brainer - why spend cash on pumping and depleting your finite resources when there's no benefit? Previously they had little choice - they had debts to service. Now many of those have gone bust or 'restructured'. Chasing market share in a falling market can be the road to ruin, hence the repeated boom and bust cycles in the US Shale industry and the dissatisfaction of investors in it. Those investors want to see capital discipline and some returns for once.
So, I think $80 is a more likely prospect now than it has been since October 2018 but I'll be perfectly happy if OP remains above $65 - which has been something of a 'sweet spot' in terms of supply/demand balance since the frackers disrupted the market.

Bald Eagle: For it is more likely (in my non expert eyes) for oil to be nearer $50pb when demand increases ......
I assume you are joking.
Convention and reality has it that the price of anything will increase when demand for it is high and stretches supply.
To re-cap: I was simply demonstrating the link between OP, level of demand and sp .
And, no, if demand increases from current levels I would not expect OP to fall as a consequence

Hi CSD1962 - I wish you good luck in your endeavours. I'm curious as to why your target is only 1450? I'm overweight RDS having replaced some traded shares recently and my mind is set on about a £1 more than that. I'm in no rush but I think it's a reasonable target over the next month or two. https://invst.ly/ur95d

The other way round, surely?!
Er... no. ....We must have some crossed wires here somewhere Bald Eagle: RDS obviously benefits from higher OP and higher demand rather than low OP and low demand.

The level of demand is obviously also a factor.
Is healthy demand at $80/bbl likely to be better for RDS than poor demand at $50/bbl? I would imagine so.
https://invst.ly/uq-7g.

Over a seven year view, the price of Brent, is certainly at an interesting point right now:
https://invst.ly/uqv8p
Especially if we consider what the low limit might have been if 2020 had been ‘normal’ - the blue line.
The dynamics between OPEC+ control of supply and the US Shale producers’ tendency to fill the demand, thus putting a ceiling on the price, have, for the moment at least, been changed and there seems to be a chance for OP to break above the red line for the first time in those seven years. One thing is certain: the three lines can’t all survive the next few months.

Over a seven year view, the price of Brent, is certainly at an interesting point right now:
https://invst.ly/uqv8p
Especially if we consider what the low limit might have been if 2020 had been ‘normal’ - the blue line.
The dynamics between OPEC+ control of supply and the US Shale producers’ tendency to fill the demand, thus putting a ceiling on the price, have, for the moment at least, been changed and there seems to be a chance for OP to break above the red line for the first time in those seven years. One thing is certain: the three lines can’t all survive the next few months.

Yes, stevebt, I see what you mean - timing those two looks very tricky. Looking at the longer term view of RDS v PSN. Over two years that's an interesting comparison: https://invst.ly/uqudn . If it's any consolation, then I can see that switching from PSN to RDS any time during September to mid-November (when RDS was around £10) was about the only recent window when it might have been advantageous: https://invst.ly/uqus3

I agree with you L3Trader and, perhaps I expressed my view badly when I said:
' ....either they [opposing votes] are valid or not - either way it points to tensions that are not conducive to smooth running. '
The fact that there were around 40% opposing votes suggests that 'all is not well' which, in itself, is disappointing. And, yes, I agree that dissatisfied shareholders should stand up and be counted if they have good reason.

Stevebt: I sold a load of persimmon shares at £26 to buy more RDSB shares at £10….Since then persimmon has risen loads and oil hasn’t,
When exactly did you do that? Persimmon has been behind RDS all the way through since RDSb was £10 as far as I can see, especially during January and March, when it seems you could have done way better with your RDS bought at £10:
https://invst.ly/uqjv-

For week ending Friday 7/5/21
So here’s the week that just was: four days for the UK and five for the other runners and riders:
https://invst.ly/uq123
G was doing well by Wednesday but Thursday’s AGM statement seems to have added a much needed boost.

Agreed Barrie, Neversell...
The sp is making a bit of a meal out of recovery isn't it? It really should be in the mid 1400's. Fortunately, with ex div split into four annual chunks, the effect on the sp will be fairly minimal and quickly absorbed. RDS is the plodding 'workhorse' in my portfolio - my risk and trading tend to be elsewhere. Until the trough of last summer, I regarded RDS as a safe haven for cash that was otherwise not deployed. I don't think those days will fully return but will probably continue to use RDS as a balancing energy related stock whilst Genl and CWR hopefully provide the spice, interest and gains - with the latter also providing my 'energy transition' pathway. CWR has been spectacularly volatile since I first dabbled with it at just over £4 a year ago and consequently a terrific trading earner for me. I'm beginning to see why a number of 'new energy' execs left RDS a few months back - to me, the company seems more interested in share buybacks than gaining a serious foothold in green power generation. That policy may ultimately cause me to move away but, for now, RDS is a good fit with my other energy stocks. ATB

It's not surprising, perhaps, to see profits being taken today. after the recent rise But it may prove to be a bit premature given the low value relative to Brent and the upcoming divi: https://invst.ly/upvd4

Continuing today with a tiny gap.
RDS finally chasing its previous pricing relative to Brent.
£15+ seems a realistic summertime expectation.
https://invst.ly/upt0d

Correction:
......because it did much the same on Tuesday at 1160: https://invst.ly/uphc2

That $36m figure for March production + Receivables and RSA - given at the AGM today? - is a big step up from what G got for February's output, which was $27.2m I think - so a 32% increase? That's rather more, I think, than could be explained by increased OP so there must have been a significant improvement in production. The talk about QD is also encouraging - the QD1 story was frankly uninspiring when we first learned of G's involvement in the field and my expectations have not been high.

I agree it's disappointing to see opposing votes near 40% - not that I know the reasons. Either they are valid or not - either way it points to tensions that are not conducive to smooth running. I’m also presuming that '2018' is a typo in this bit of the AGM Results:
‘Genel confirms the payment of a final dividend of 10¢ per share in relation to the 2018 financial year.’

If we can monetize the gas assets....
That's possibly up to Rosneft rather than the KRG maybe?

Thanks Greenhighlander - I assume you meant to say ' can't ' in this bit though ? :
'... where 2-3knt currents are the norm, you can just leave cable on the seabed exposed to that big directional flow and expect it to survive...'