Member Info for Boyobach

‘At least it should be apparent when the reversal occurs as the red here gets firmly broken (not just temporarily punctured) (15’ view):’

Well, a glimmer of hope emerging: https://invst.ly/usrti - although a bit too early to be sure yet.

Yes Elcapitan, nice of them to continue as per contract, but what about the 14 missing months? I don't recall any proposals concerning them?

I was obviously being a bit facetious bunks and, yes, I'm sure it will recover to some extent. However, the KRG antics over the years have progressively - and in my view irreparably - damaged investor prospects here and lopped the top off the value it might otherwise have achieved. The company will need to issue revised guidance for 2021 and I doubt that revenue projections will now match 2019 (ie pre-pandemic levels) whilst the risk of further KRG nonsense is now far too great to ignore. The issue of the RSA is now pressing too. The chart suggests that if the price drops below 152 then 144-147 could be the next stop although the 120's can't be ruled out if the company says nothing. Had the fall happened as a result of legitimate and transient market or OP driven reasons then I might have added today but I'm not touching it because of the toxic uncertainty that the KRG has poured all over G and my suspicions surrounding the actions of a system which has been tainted with accusations of corruption in the past. Today's sp movements undoubtedly offered the possibility of gain for anyone who had prior knowledge and the timing seems a little too perfect to be pure coincidence. At least with RDS there isn't a spin of some potentially loaded dice every month. I'll see what happens over the next few days or weeks - cash is king right now for me and I don't rule out cashing my chips with G entirely.

So, as the crazy bungee jumper that is Genel craters through a couple of trends and support levels today, I need hardly explain to regulars here my rather obvious thoughts on where it might land: https://invst.ly/usnxh
I had anticipated a choice of opportunities today: CWR, G and RDS were on the list. But I’m much more likely, at this stage, to join our old pal JL down at the races.

It does seem to be a cynical calculation by KRG - wait until production ramps up, cap-ex gets committed to QD or whatever and then cut the year's total payments. It needs to be a business-based response but is QD - a failed prospective venture previously - a good way to go when cash is tight yet again because the KRG can't stick to an agreement. It hardly seems a priority now. And what is happening with regards to the RSA?

Ha! Yeah - nice!

Closing below 1000 and then falling through 965 to the next trend at 926 was not good, It might stop here but there’s not much historic support until 840, https://invst.ly/usmyc .
At least it should be apparent when the reversal occurs as the red here gets firmly broken (not just temporarily punctured) (15’ view): https://invst.ly/usn0r

Chilting: So maybe Weichai are considering their options - could it be that they favour Ceres technology instead of Ballard's technology???
My thoughts exactly - their commitment to the fund raise is recent, their connection to Ballard is three years old now isn't it?

Hi JL - good to hear from you but we're obviously not in a particularly jolly mood today. The timing of events here have at least saved you a few bob - it may be worth giving it a go if the price drops much further. Divi was ratified at AGM and ex-div is today.

I believe the total was $121m for 2019/2020 , which I have noted from the Jan T& O Update, of which I think $7.8m has been paid (in March and April). It looks like the original scheme was intended to repay over about three years and maybe - if OP continues at current levels - the repayment period will still be about the same. I have not re-checked my numbers and this is a very charitable interpretation. The Receivables Settlement Agreement, where payments were suspended for 14 months is another matter and I don't recall any update about that yet.

Given ex-div and the wider market downturn, the KRG's timing when it chooses not to pay is as helpful as ever.

This effectively knocks a month off this year's cash flow doesn't it?
Cap-ex needs to be reined-in perhaps?

Swings and Roundabouts, bunks: G 'down the middle' compared to Chevron and RDS recently: https://invst.ly/usj7h .
Which, as I've said before. is a bit weird given that G should be much more linked to OP.

Largely priced-in?
Let's see what the closing price is tonight.

Bearing in mind that the March placing price of 10.60 was at a discount of 4.3% to the closing price of 1108 on March 17th, yesterday’s closing price represented a 10% drop from that Mar 17th level. The FTSE100 has gained 3.3% over the period, so CWR would be at about 11.44 today had it tracked that index.
https://invst.ly/us32g
The pattern of price movements for CWR following the March placing does not look altogether unexpected: there were inevitably some profit-taking points after sharp rises but the £10 base (965 intraday) seems well established, along with the long-term trend (blue). It’ll be interesting to see what happens next time the red limiting trend gets challenged, when a breakout would be very welcome! https://invst.ly/us3tu

Regarding Weichai, I should also have added that they have committed to their participation subject only to PRC regulatory approval as stated in the RNS announcement:
The Weichai Subscription is conditional upon satisfaction of certain provincial PRC governmental approvals (the "Regulatory Approval Condition").

not much chance of weichai taking up their allocation now.
just wait 3 weeks and buy them at half price.....

Weichai's participation would be in order to boost CWR's funds, in return for an allocation of shareholding (which dilutes existing shareholders). Buying shares on the open market, at any price, would not achieve that objective so this suggestion is a bit silly: Weichai will either participate or they will not.

As I write this crude oil has recovered back to 65.34 ....

That's WTI presumably? So about $3 below Brent currently.

RDS started today with a gap down of about 10p from 1358, which will get filled eventually, and it then motored down the hill with the rest of the market and oil majors, although Brent held quite firm meanwhile.
https://invst.ly/urqaj
This was the pack that RDS had led from October through to mid January: https://invst.ly/urqno
However, Exxon has really shown how things can change.

So G held steady today - actually up during the morning - even as the market generally tumbled https://invst.ly/uroqh . I have to confess that I sold last week’s ‘trading tranche’, purely because of the market and potential opportunities that might occur over the next few days plus the fact that it had gained 10% in just a week. My core holding remains untouched, however. Quite stunning performance - the only one apart from JHD in my list that didn’t end down today.