R1 still presents excellent value29 Dec 2017 12:34
I've been buying this every 10p drop since it went under 300p (from 295p-215p). It currently presents excellent value imo.
Once the YuMe deal completes, R1 will be on course to achieve $415 in revenue and $34 million in profit which would easily take us above Numis's 12 month price target of 720p.
If over the next few years R1 could increase that to $500 million with $50 million in profit then we could see anywhere from 1500p - 2000p per share.
I feel the Seeking Alpha article is extremely cautious in its outlook over what affect R1's programmatic trading platform could have on the old YuMe business. YuMe currently have a very week programmatic offering and although the Seeking Alpha article mentions R1's programmatic platform as a good fit, it subscribes virtually no growth to it. It's probably prudent to be cautious after the last two years we've seen in adtech and for that reason Seeking Alpha have taken the last two years as a basis for their expectations for future growth (or lack thereof).
Here's what they had to say:
"The implications for the combined company are strong revenue and earnings performance for the foreseeable future. YuMe’s innovation in video advertising coupled with RTHM’s programmatic platform should offer a unique advertising experience for clients. The lack of organic growth is of concern, and is modeled in and hence the lower income in 2020. There is potential that the combined entity will be able to achieve more organic growth through their more complete product offering; however, this possibility has to be weighed against the possibility that scale will not contribute to growth as much as hoped. No growth in revenues due to scale is accounted for in the model, but there is 2% annual revenue growth for the combined entity from 2018-2020."
On the flip side, I think it's also a good idea to remember that YuMe is a very highly rated video adtech company with its API installed in LG, Samsung, Toshiba and Vestel smart TV's as well as some of the most popular set top boxes. The adoption of programmatic trading for TV style ads has been slow to start, but it will most certainly speed up over the the next year or two. Programmatic is just so much easier than insertion orders and it returns far more data on ROI too. If R1 do a good job with the integration of YuMe, then we could see a lot more organic growth come in from other R1 programmatic partners (brands and agencies that use video ads) that have not used YuMe before.
Yeah pays yeah money, yeah takes yeah chance.
Good luck all.
https://www.beet.tv/2016/01/yume-5.html
(only works if you disable your adblocker).